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| OCTOBER OBSERVATIONS |
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| | 10-30-2002 | An Education on Eminem |
EMINEM
Who is Eminem?
My feeling is that the majority of the readers of this site have very little idea of who he is, but there is a reason that you should be interested in him. Eminem is a rapper who appeals to the youth of this country, and who has the top selling CD in the nation this year, and he is very, very angry.
The songs he sings and the message he brings are expressions of extreme pain and negativity - he tells the story of growing up poor, ignored, the abused child of a single mother and his view of America. Born in 1972, his view of the country is shared by millions of his generation - the so called "Generation Y" - the second largest cohort after the Baby Boomers. Eminem thus gives voice to the feelings of millions of youth who were brought up under conditions similar to his own.
I ask you to read the lyrics to his song, "White America." Especially if you have kids - adolescents, teenagers - try to get an idea of why this poem has such appeal. Don't dismiss it as ridiculous, or stupid. These are words from the most popular CD in the country, and the demographic it is selling to is absolutely huge. These are the words your kids are likely listening to, or at least are exposed to in some manner through their friends & classmates. This artist has power, and a new movie coming out on November 8 will give him even more exposure.
WHITE AMERICA
America! We love you! How many people are proud to be citizens of this beautiful country of ours? The stripes and the stars for the rights that men have died for to protect / The women and men who have broke their necks for the freedom of speech the United States government has sworn to uphold. (Yo I want everybody to listen to the words of this song) or so we're told...
Verse 1
I never would've dreamed in a million years I'd see, so many motherfuckin' people who feel like me/who share the same views and the same exact beliefs, it's like a fuckin' army marchin' in back of me/So many lives I touch, so much anger aimed in no particular direction, just sprays and sprays and straight through your radio waves it plays and plays, till it stays stuck in your head for days and days/who woulda thought, standing in this mirror bleachin' my hair, with some peroxide, reachin for a t-shirt to wear/that I would catapult to the forefront of rap like this? How could I predict my words would have an impact like this/I must've struck a chord, with somebody up in the office, cuz Congress keeps telling me I ain't causin' nuthin' but problems/and now they're sayin' I'm in trouble with the government, I'm lovin' it, I shoveled shit all my life/and now I'm dumping it on...
Chorus X2
White America!
I could be one of your kids
White America!
Little Eric looks just like this
White America!
Erica loves my shit
I go to TRL, look how many hugs I get
Verse 2
Look at these eyes, baby blue, baby just like yourself, if they were brown Shady lose, Shady sits on the shelf/but Shady's cute, Shady knew Shady's dimples would help, make ladies swoon baby, ooh baby! Look at my sales/Lets do the math, If I was black I would've sold half, I ain't have to graduate from Lincoln High School to know that/but I could rap, so fuck school, I'm too cool to go back, gimme the mic, show me where the fuckin' studio's at/When I was underground, no one gave a fuck I was white, no labels wanted to sign me almost gave up, I was like/Fuck it, until I met Dre, the only one to look past, gave me a chance, and I lit a fire up under his ass/helped him get back to the top, every fan black that I got was probably his in exchange for every white fan that he's got/Like damn, we just swapped. Sittin' back lookin' at shit, wow, I'm like my skin is it starting to work to my benefit now?
Chorus X2
Verse 3
See the problem is I speak to suburban kids who otherwise would of never knew these words exist/whose moms probably woulda never gave two squirts of piss, till I created so much motherfuckin' turbulence/straight out the tube, right into your living room I came, and kids flipped when they knew I was produced by Dre/That's all it took, and they were instantly hooked right in, and they connected with me too because I looked like them/that's why they put my lyrics up under this microscope, searchin' with a fine tooth comb, its like this rope/waitin' to choke, tightening around my throat, watching me while I write this, like I don't like this (Nope)/All I hear is: lyrics, lyrics, constant controversy, sponsors working round the clock, to try to stop my concerts early/surely hip hop was never a problem in Harlem only in Boston, after it bothered the fathers of daughters starting to blossom/so now I'm catchin' the flack from these activists when they raggin', actin' like I'm the first rapper to smack a bitch, or say faggot/shit, just look at me like I'm your closest pal, the posterchild, the mother fuckin' spokesman now for...
Verse 4
So to the parents of America / I am the derringer aimed at little Erica, to attack her character / The ringleader of this circus of worthless pawns / Sent to lead the march right up to the steps of Congress / And piss on the lawns of the White House and replace it with a Parental Advisory sticker / To spit liquor in the faces of in this democracy of hypocrisy / Fuck you Ms. Cheney! Fuck you Tipper Gore! Fuck you with the freest of speech this divided states of embarassment will allow me to have, Fuck you! I'm just kiddin' America, you know I love you...
*****
It is angry. It is insightful. It is scary. Now, if you want to see something really scary, check out the video to the song. Click on the link below (Rolling Stone), then click on the link for the video. It will take you to another site which will require a quick signup, but it is well worth it! Play the video full screen, and imagine that you're a disillusioned kid (maybe your own) watching it.
White America Video
The theme is one of pure cynicism - commercialism, crime, the sad, hollow blank and empty faces of the youth, a nation at war, cities burning, an image of Uncle Sam saying, "I'll Kill You," the Declaration of Independence of the United States being torn apart, the ever present theme of machines of war..
In another of his songs, "Square Dance" he speaks frankly of the war:
...The boogie monster of rap, yeah the man's back/with a plan to ambush this Bush administration, mush the Senate's face in, push this generation/of kids to stand and fight for the right to say something you might not like, this white hot light/that I'm under, no wonder I look so sunburnt, oh no I won't leave no stone unturned/Oh no I won't leave, won't go nowhere, do-si-do, oh, yo, ho, hello there/oh yeah don't think I won't go there, go to Beirut and do a show there/yah you laugh till your muthafuckin' ass gets drafted, while you're at band camp thinkin' the crap can't happen/till you fuck around, get an anthrax napkin, inside a package wrapped in saran wrap wrapping/open the plastic and then you stand back gasping, fuckin' assassins hijackin' Amtracks crashin'/all this terror America demands action, next thing you know you've got Uncle Sam's ass askin'/to join the army or what you'll do for their Navy. You just a baby, gettin' recruited at eighteen/You're on a plane now, eatin' their food and their baked beans. I'm twenty-eight, they're gonna take you 'fore they take me/Crazy insane or insane crazy?
*****
Why do I bring all this up? Because something is simmering deep down in this country, and it will boil over. Just as the repressed 1950s led to the wild 1960s, the domination of corporations through the 1990s is causing a wave of resentment that is starting to bubble up. Kids have clear eyes, so it is easy for them to see the bullshit their parents (an themselves) have to put up with, working for the corporate man, kissing corporate ass. For what? The right to buy more worthless, material crap? The obligation to go to war over oil? No wonder they are angry - these things are not important. We all know it, it is only the youth who have the courage to speak up and say "something you might not like." This is where the anger is expressed - through art. Our government expresses it with weapons. And before this depression is over, the masses will be expressing it in the streets, as they bemoan the losses of their precious money, their life savings, their retirement dreams, their dream homes, and the privelege (which they thought was a right) to live like kings in the United States of America.
If you have kids, ask them what they know about Eminem. Listen to some of the songs. Then ask youself why it has come to this, and what can be done about it. Email me: manystrom@depression2.tv
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| 10-25-2002 | Gun Nation |
Thank you, Michael Moore!
For the courage to show Americans what we have become.
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| 10-21-2002 | Autumn Moon |
Full Moon, October 21, 2002.
Moon Phase Calendar
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| 10-14-2002 | Rally in tulips! |
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| 10-4-2002 | New Moon On Sunday |
New Moon October 6; Next Full Moon Oct 21 |
| 10-3-2002 | Definitions for the New Economy |
Bull Market - A random market movement causing an investor to mistake himself for a financial genius.
Bear Market - A 6 to 18 month period when the kids get no allowance, the wife gets no jewellery, and the husband gets no sex.
Momentum Investing - The fine art of buying high and selling low.
Value Investing - The art of buying low and selling lower.
P/E ratio- The percentage of investors wetting their pants as the Market keeps crashing.
Broker - Poorer than you were last year.
Buy, Buy - A flight attendant making market recommendations as you step off the plane.
Standard & Poor - Your life in a nutshell.
Stock Analyst - Idiot who just downgraded your stock.
Stock split - When your ex-wife and her lawyer split all your assets
equally between themselves.
Financial Planner - A guy who actually remembers his wallet when he
runs to the 7-11 for toilet paper and cigarettes.
Market Correction - The day after you buy stocks.
Cash Flow - The movement your money makes as it disappears down the toilet.
Trader - Someone who is disloyal from 9-5.
Cisco - Sidekick of Pancho.
Yahoo - What you yell after selling it to some poor sucker for $240 per share.
Windows 2000 - What you jump out of when you're the sucker that bought Yahoo for $240 per share.
Institutional Investor - Past year investor who's now locked up in a nut house.
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| 10-2-2002 | All that glitters is not gold... |
Even with the Dow down 183 today (to close at 7755), the XAU still could not muster a rally, and fell .7% to 67.16. Unhedged mining shares, represented by the HUI were down even further - 1.1% to 121.10. This is in spite of the fact that the price of spot gold was up $2.40 to 323.1!
Lest any gold bugs out there believe that mining shares are a sure bet even in a general secular bear market, I direct your attention to the chart of the 1987 XAU index.
With October upon us once again it would be wise to consider the historical relationship of mining shares to the broader stock market.
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| 10-1-2002 | The Bear Case for Gold |
The Bear Case for Gold
by M.A. Nystrom
The rise in the price of gold seems to be a sure thing, right? With money supply growth out of control, a war with Iraq all but inevitable and a derivatives bubble that could explode at any moment, there seems but one direction for the price of gold: Up. Just one false step by JP Morgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Citicorp, AIG or any other gold cartel members could send gold flying. Any terrorist attack on U.S. soil would once again shake confidence in the U.S. dollar, and gold would be on its way! When Iraq invaded Kuwait in August 1990, gold was trading at $345 an ounce. Prices rose rapidly to $410 - a quick 20% gain! The budget deficit and current account deficit are beyond belief - surely this is inflationary.
It seems so obvious, such a no-brainer than gold is going to the moon, and in short order too. The top performing funds of the year are precious metals funds. Analysts are turning bullish on gold, and articles of its recent rise are making headlines in USA Today and other mainstream media publications.
So with all this bullishness, why are the gold mining stocks stalling, even as gold challenges its recent high?
After reaching a multi- year high in June just over $330, gold pulled back sharply and violently in the Summer. It maintained its perch above $300 but has recently run out of gas on its latest attempt at a new high. With stock markets crumbling and both the Dow and the Nasdaq making new closing lows for the year, the price of the metal has failed to respond. It has gotten very close to its June high - within a few percent - but has failed to break through and now appears to be pulling back.
More ominous and telling than the spot metal chart is a chart of the XAU, the Phlx Gold Silver Index. The XAU is known to lead the metal both in price swings and volatility. In spite of the metal price recently coming within 1% of its June high, the XAU index is a full 20% away from its June high, and heading south rapidly:
Furthermore, the Elliot Wave count on this index is extremely bearish. While still choppy and unclear, it appears that a five wave impulse down has begun from the most recent high, and we are heading into wave three down now. Third waves are the most violent and powerful, so if this reading is correct, selling pressure should intensify in the coming weeks.
Inflation or Deflation?
This is the key to the direction of the price of gold in the short term. There is no question that in time, in an inflationary environment, the price of gold will rise. However, in a period of deflation, all assets lose value - including gold.
And in the game of trading, timing is everything. Buy low, sell high - it sounds like the easiest trick around, until you actually try it. For most people, their main source of information is other people - i.e. the crowd. When everyone in the crowd is shouting the same thing, it is difficult to go against it, and even more difficult to think for oneself. Right now, the gold crowd is extremely vocal in its bullishness. Dissent is unacceptable. It reminds me of the good old days, just before the internet bubble popped…
There is currently just one institutional advisor who is bearish on both the stock market and the gold market, and that is Robert Prechter. In a special report titled "Begin Changing Your Thinking Towards Gold & Silver" published in February of 2001, he states that his best long term targets for gold remain under $200/oz. And in July 2002, when both the regular market and the gold markets were crashing, the August Elliott Wave Financial Forecast mused, "If the blue-chip stock indexes are going down, then gold stocks must be going up, right? Among the bears on stocks and the economy, it is almost universally accepted that gold stocks run contra-cyclically to blue chip stocks. But no one seems to notice that the XAU is shadowing the stock market in its recent descent…like most other equities, gold stocks are falling in an impulsive retreat that supports EWFF's long term outlook for the XAU, and this forecast from page 212 of Conquer the Crash: "It is probably not a good idea to invest in gold stocks. In common bear markets, stocks of gold mining companies have more often gone down than up except in periods of accelerating inflation." And in this month's (October 2002) report, "The XAU index has exhibited relative strength versus the rest of the stock market. Obviously, stock investors are still desperately searching for a hot sector that can protect them from the fallout of the bear. The XAU should eventually turn into another failed haven, as the bear market deepens and all stocks are hit, including gold and silver mining issues."
Wow. That is strong language from Mr. Prechter.
Remove the Emotion
Gold under $200? In this climate, such a thought is anathema to gold bugs. Will it get there? I don't know. But in my years of experience as a trader, I have learned one thing, and that is not to become wedded to a position for emotional reasons, for that is a sure way to lose money. Keep your eyes open and examine all information, and give it due consideration. The market is full of risk, and anything can happen. Don't get yourself over extended on a "sure thing."
Remember the last bandwagon that everyone was jumping on because it was a no-lose, sure way to make money was the internet bubble! As Mark Twain says, "History may not repeat itself, but it often times rhymes." And sometimes the rhymes come in quick succession.
And in the words of John Maynard Keynes "when information changes, I change my mind. What do you do?"
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| 10-1-2002 | 'tis the season |
Autumn Panics
"The crash of the Hong Kong stock market in October 1997, with its obvious parallels to similar events in the U.S. in 1987 and 1929, once again raises the specter of October as a dark and ominous month for stocks. Is it merely a coincidence that these three crashes all occurred in October?..."
From - Autumn Panics: A Calendar Phenomenon
by Christopher Carolan
Recipient of the 1998 Charles H. Dow Award.
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Thank you for your continued patience and support!
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| Check out the 2002 predictions & other articles in the archives |
| manystrom@depression2.tv |
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Some products to help you anticipate the changing landscape: |
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I would love to hear from you.
Contact me at:
manystrom@depression2.tv |
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