Gold Charts R Us Snippet

September 12, 2004

Gold Charts R Us

Welcome to GCRU #128 on Sept 8. Nothing very bad is happening but also nothing very good, a stagnant pool. It’s the fault of the US$ of course, threatening to break up from a symmetrical triangle dating from mid-July. A rise to 90.50 (basis Dec futures) in $-Index & above would be black cloud for gold. A fall to 87.70 would be bright yellow cloud for gold. So watch those numbers daily. ••Under these circumstances I can’t advise buying dips this time as a $-rise would send many golds to the bottom of their trading ranges & we’d need to see if they hold. Safest strategy is to buy on 1 day closes over nearby peaks—which would happen if the $ drops. ••Meantime, the world is holding its breath. The euro typifies the action, also poised in a symmetrical triangle, but also burdened by a H&S top pattern which is scary--& troublesome for gold if it breaks under the 120 neckline. Gold is still in the trading range we outlined long ago, aprox 380-425. But indiv gold stks are still doing their own thing, as happens in all trading ranges. Note the bullish wedges & flags to spot the movers. •••While we wait for gold to break & the $ to drop, we have the energy stocks to keep our cash registers ringing bells. Thank goodness, we diversified. And they are outperforming crude oil. Yesterday, with oil down sharply, most energy stks were mixed, & half rose! See below for new recom. ••••GCRU BREAKING NEWS: Buy & Hold clearly doesn’t pay off.

Yet daily trading or even daily monitoring is not easy for everyone. So, how about invest-&-exit via trends? Yes—for the non-daily trader (short or medium term). I’ve coined a word for this approach of Investing with Trends: Trendvestors (T/V’s). It’s the middle ground between buy/hold & daily/trades. So, GCRU is going to offer 1-2 pages of each issue of GCRU for the Trendvestors. The recom on this/these pages will be a blessing for those who simply can’t find the time to trade or even monitor every day. For some, a weekly monitoring via GCRU may be enough. T/V’s can’t make as much profit as daily traders, but far more than the buy&hold crowd. And it may be the only answer for those with busy schedules or learner-drivers. Some will probably play both sides of the street, some daily-acting, some trend-acting. And both groups benefit from looking at the GCRU charts, especially the US$ (a compass) plus bullion, the A/D & SGI. We’ll launch this new Trendvesting either next wk or the following week, after we test it & get the bugs out. The new T/V section will be greatly simplified, extremely easy to follow, yet still offer learner-drivers the opportunity to compare those guidelines with those to traders & study the indiv gold charts. It’s win-win-win for U. More work-work-work for us, but the need seems apparent. ••••In addition to the energy stks I’ve recom here for many wks, all of which are acting well, I found some new ones. Have a look at these: Denbury Res. (DNR); Westmoreland Coal (WLB); True Energy (TUI-T); Petrel Res.(LSE) (London); Centurion Energy (LSE); Transocean Inc (RIG) & Noble Corp (NE). Gamblers buy toehold longs at mkt; others buy on pullbacks to support. I haven’t space & time to fine-tune the exact entry&stop prices but IMO they are medium term buys with small downside risk. U can find the charts on & determine your own entry & stop prices. The point is: energy & gold are the only clear bull mkts today. U shud have feet in both pools. If the $ breaks upside, gold will drop but energy stks will rise faster than present pace, IMO. So, diversification should pay now, as it always has. •••••••Whew, lots of input, eh? God speed. From your alchemist gold guru,
Uncle Harry


Anglo American (Nasdaq: AAUK) daily chart; US$: Buy recom:
GCRU’s bot at 22.25; stop: 20.75. If out, wait for strength after dip that holds on/above 21.40-22.00 support. Or, buy bit on 1-dc over 23.30;
stop: 21.40. Profit/sell targets: 24.95 &/or 26.00. Basis weekly chart: neutral. Comment: sym triangle after breakout from trading range.
Spinner neg. Monitor May uptrend.


Iamgold Int’l African (Toronto: IMG; Amex: IAG) daily chart (L/O/C); CAD$: Trade recom: GCRU’s bot bit at 9.15. If out, wait to buy
strength after dip that holds on/above 8.60 support. Or, buy 1-dc over 10.00; stop: 8.50. Profit/sell targets: 9.85 (if buy low) 10.45 &/or 11.95. Basis weekly chart: neutral/bullish. Comment: Spinner neutral. Poss reverse H&S base likely to offer low risk buy on pullback. Good R/S.

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Posted by manystrom at September 12, 2004 08:49 AM

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