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Putin & Petro-Dollar Revolt

November 26, 2004

The following article is available at the authors site, www.goldenjackass.com, and goldeagle. I put it up here because I feel it is very worth debating. We've touched on these issues for the past few years. We've written and posted articles about the demise of the Petro-Dollar, and the prospect of a Euro-Dollar, we've also stated over time that Iraq was moving to payment in Euro's before the second war. So this information is not surprising, but it is very well put together and definitely germane to current blogs on D2.

So here it is:

Putin & Petro-Dollar Revolt
by Jim Willie CB


Subtle changes are in the wind on the energy front. As much as some people want to regard Russia as a strong American ally, their behavior on several fronts testifies to the contrary. Some truly staggering developments are underway, not adequately reported. Behind the scenes, covered little by the intrepid US press & media, a meeting was convened two weeks ago in the Urals of Russia. European leaders, and OPEC representatives, and Putin quietly are plotting to establish stronger ties between Europe and Russia in their basis for financial transactions. Putin is adroitly offering to install euro pricing of crude oil, which would surely favor Germany and other large EU nations. He strives to obtain geopolitical concessions from EU leaders, namely a more powerful voice for Russia in world politics.

OPEC appears to be willing and eager to join in new alliances to undermine the US domination from owning the world reserve currency. Enormous consequences follow, which lie completely in US blind spots. A strange contrasting parallel might exist between the United States and Russia, regarding relationships with large energy companies. The USA has evolved into a cooperative collusion with big companies like Halliburton. Russia has broken down into a confrontational situation steeped in confiscation with big companies like Yukos. The USA seems to work constructively with large firms, with governmental support. This is seen in sponsored foreign grain sales, in development of petro-chemical plants, in defense contracts for the military complex, in permissiveness toward software monopolies, in protection of the steel industry, and elsewhere. Russia seems to work in adversarial roles to steal back and forth with their big firms.

RUSSIAN ASSAULT ON FREE ENTERPRISE
Russian legal treachery embodies a big insult to free enterprise and rights to property. One might say Yukos Oil began as a company with stolen property, or cozy deals to gather in several purchases from state-owned regions, or tax scoffs at Russian authorities enabled growth. Fine, whatever. My attention is trained on current methods, which can be aptly labeled as legal warfare, and trends which betray private property. The Yukos tax & fine bill submitted was revealed to be $18.5 billion, which exceeds the company's annual revenue, and goes far beyond the level where embarrassment is profoundly clear. The Russian government has established a modus operandi, i.e. method of operation. A company is targeted for seizure. It is charged with tax evasion. Their assets are then frozen, pending investigations and legal outcomes. Cash flow is interrupted, only to put debt service repayments in jeopardy. The courts declare debt default, a fresh new problem for the targeted company, whose stock declines in value, and possibly sharply. Under financial duress, a deal is cut, as taxes are paid as a fraction of the original demand in return for a sale of large tracts of the company's properties to the Russian govt. Charges are reduced or negotiated along with the distress sale of their property. Such a pattern has shown itself clearly with the Yukos case.

Moreover on the front tied to cooperative agreements, Russia's treachery is wholly evident in its dealings with western firms. Pan Am Silver was severely victimized, via dissolution of a partner firm and reconstitution of a new corporate entity Polimetall with those mining rights, leaving the US firm out in the cold Siberian winter. PanAm Silver appears not to be in line to share profits where silver production is forthcoming. The original company was dissolved, and along with it, all contracts with PanAm. Czarist gamesmanship with western energy companies is now in focus. British Petroleum is at risk with older contracts, while others like Conoco Philips are at risk with newer contracts. British Petroleum could be in the midst of a bold double-cross, for the craziest of sounding reasons. They exceeded licensed production amounts!

To the casual non-discerning observer, Putin appears to offer much needed support to President Bush, as seen in bilateral meetings in Texas that included a horseback ride photo opp. A closer examination reveals more ominous overtones in recent geopolitical events and high-level discussions. The summertime tragedy at the children schoolhouse in Chechnya triggered an international outcry of criticism. The US State Dept issued public statements to the effect that the Russian govt might have acted with too much force, a vivid reminder of their action taken in the Moscow theatre taken hostage a year ago. Each incident, the theater and the school, resulted in over 200 fatal victims. Putin was rankled by the criticism. Last month, after a visit by a leading US legal team to Russia, and upon urgent pleas made to the US State Dept once again, our prestigious ministry issued more criticism of Putin for their harsh legal approach to Yukos and denial of property rights, not to mention due process travesties. Several US firms have longstanding contracts with Yukos, which are now in confusion or jeopardy. Once more Putin has been angered.

RUSSIA-EUROPEAN AXIS EVOLVES
Putin is in the midst of taking steps very harmful to the petro-dollar foundation of international commerce. In late October, the Moscow Times reported that President Vladimir Putin might order Russia to switch its trade in oil from denomination in USDollars to the currency flowing in the European Union, the euro. Such a move could have far-reaching repercussions for the global monetary system and its balance of power. Few US-based analysts even discuss the stability of the petro-dollar, which is assumed a fixture never to be tampered with. Not here. Few again discuss the impact of changes in basis to link the USDollar to crude oil. Implications would add fresh momentum and force to the three-year bear market in the USDollar. What harms the USA would enhance the European Union and its economy.

Putin's words and actions are telling, a key revelation of his awareness of how important the stakes are, and how Russia holds a strong poker hand with respect to the United States. At a joint news conference with German Chancellor Schroeder in Yekaterinburg, Putin strongly suggested that Russia could switch its trade in oil from dollars to euros. He said "We do not rule out that it is possible. That would be interesting for our European partners. But this does not depend solely on us. We do not want to hurt prices on the market." The importance of the event was not lost on strategic energy agencies, but hardly made a sound bite within the US financial circles.

The European Union has long objected to the financial hegemony of the United States in its dominance of global commerce and money supply. Nowhere is the battle more bitter than in reaction to the chronic abuse of the USGovt in irresponsible spending disconnected from accountability. Europe has complained for many years about the realized exploitation by the USA in expanding federal spending, domestic tax rate cuts, advocated consumer spending, mortgage finance support, and wartime expeditions. Behind these trends and excesses is the petro-dollar system, whose US$ status as world reserve currency basically means "anything goes." We have taken advantage of the situation, much like an undisciplined teenager who with impunity wrecks cars, collects traffic violation fines, goes on drunken benders, destroys property, assaults people, and expects the world's savings account to pay for all the bills and cleanup costs. The analogy might seem off the mark, but not really. Most foreign trade surpluses find their way quickly into the US Treasury market, the Fanny Mae & Freddy Mac mortgage market, and US corporate bonds which finance their retail credit operations. Resentment has grown perhaps to a critical level, where reaction is to be soon expected.

The Putin statements in the Urals Summit highlight the drawn out campaign by European Union leaders to encourage increased commerce and banking operations in the euro currency. This is a natural response to the USDollar decline. European exports have been forced to endure price hikes from currency exchange impact alone, only to stress their economies. European bank reserves have suffered a decline in value from that same currency exchange impact, only to stress their banking systems. EU leaders obviously seek two changes: more commerce priced in euros, more reserves held in eurobonds. Many regard Russia to be in the enviable position to extract concessions, to demand more prominent geopolitical stature, in return for agreements to broaden ties to Europe. In doing so, they would break links or weaken links to the USA.

It is my analysis that the USA-Russian relationship will degrade into open hostility, but in stages of deterioration. Yesterday a story was reported on a new advanced weapon system to be deployed by Russia. Its targets are uncertain, while the risks are clear. As the world's #1 oil producer, ahead of Saudi Arabia, Russia holds much new clout. An agreement by them to embrace European currency aspirations could provoke a chain reaction among other oil producers, thus stabilizing the crude oil price IN THEIR WORLD. My analytic forecast in May 2003 for crude oil to become priced in euro denomination is slowly taking root, with broad implications. As the eurobonds grow in held reserves, the euro will gradually unseat the USDollar and claim exalted status as the world reserve currency, first in de-facto action then in actual deed. US financial markets seem asleep on the issue and its frightening risk to the US Economy.

SOME THOUGHTS INSIDE RUSSIA
In the grand chess game of global clout, Russia wants to become a stronger player on the European continent and in the Middle East. These guys know chess and craft. USA knows force and muscle. At a Helsinki meeting in 1999, Putin showed his original intention to switch oil pricing to euros as part of a grand package which included security issues. According to Alexander Rahr, an expert on Russia at the German Council on Foreign Relations, "Putin is very much interested in changing the structure of OPEC and he cannot do that without the United States… And, he wants to get contracts for the Russian oil industry in Iraq -- for this, too, he needs the United States." We Americans tend to forget the growing commercial ties between Russia and the 300 million people who occupy the European Union plus Eastern Europe. That entire region is slowly being embraced by the EU. Yevgeny Gavrilenkov, chief economic advisor to Putin, said debate is growing on a move to the euro as Russia mulls siding with the EU. "Such an idea is really possible. Why not? More than half of Russia's oil trade is with Europe. But there will be great opposition to this from the United States." The impact to Russia would be much less than to Europe, which now feels the sting of a rising euro. Putin is playing a huge bargaining chip, or else he is bluffing in order to gain inroads into Iraqi oil production contracts. A sure benefit to Europe from a wider acceptance of the new petro-euro would be lower EU interest rates, like what the USA enjoys now (temporarily).

How about a word from Russian big oil? The opinion of Lukoil vice president Leonid Fedun is worthy of note. Three or four giant energy companies dominate in Russia, including Gazprom and Lukoil, rivals of Yukos. Fedun acknowledges that any switch to euro payments would mean only a minor difference in actual transactions and cost changes. For observers it is important to focus not on the small value differences in the commerce, but on the large tectonic shift in the system which links that commerce to the monetary system itself. The political price tag and shift of financial power matter much more. Fedun is quoted by Interfax as saying "We are ready to move to the euro if the country will be included in a visa-free regime with Europe. It's a bargaining chip." By "visa" he means passports, not credit cards. Talk is rampant that Putin is playing his chess pieces in the tradition of smart Russian masters, vying for EU concessions and World Trade Org inclusion.

ASIA GETS A WORD IN
Bank of Japan Governor Fukui said if a strong rival to the USDollar as a key global currency were to emerge, a stabilizing effect on the global financial system would result. Fukui referred to the dangers associated with allowing any single currency to dominate global commerce, mentioned its disruptive influence, and indirectly criticized the US financial management. Fukui told a recent conference "In such a situation, the economy of the key currency is easily tempted to focus its economic policy on domestic considerations… In today's globalized economy, this could lead to undesirable ripple effects on the rest of the world, through the fluctuations of the external value of the key currency." The message is clear. We have been warned, but our bond market seems in total indifference.

Asians, with their collective $1900 billion in foreign exchange reserves, stand to lose significant capital in their banking systems, since the majority of these reserves are in US$-based securities. Asians, most notably Japan and China, find themselves in an awkward position. If they extend deeper support to the US$, their risk rises. If they diversify or withdraw with more conviction, their capital losses could be staggering. For certain, rhetoric both in Asia and Europe is bubbling over. A severe backlash is coming for the USDollar for its profligate abuse and irresponsible management. We have used the world currency US$ as an agent for bubble generation and Ponzi Economics. This topic receives sparse coverage in the US press & media, with little or no appreciation of importance.

OPEC HAS SOMETHING TO SAY
Youssef Ibrahim is the managing director of the Strategic Energy Investment Group in Dubai and a member of the US Council on Foreign Relations. His words included the word "catastrophe" in recent quotes. His voice carries great influence, perhaps as much in the European-Arab petro world as Alan Greenspan in our world. Ibrahim speaks from the world of the petro system and its root in tangible world of trade, while Greenspan speaks from the world of the monetary system and its roots in inflationary financial engineering.

Between 60% and 70% of world currency reserves, from trade surplus and oil export, are kept in the form of USDollars and US$-denominated securities such as USTBonds. Since surpluses are stored in the US$ system, the US Economy enjoys a risk-free benefit, and sidesteps all market mechanisms in response to imbalances. The USA should have interest rates prevail to 3% to 5% above the rest of the world, from a current account deficit basis alone. Instead, Asia and the Persian Gulf emirates keep our rates artificially low. The USA should have a currency exchange rate 20% to 35% lower than current rates, from a current account deficit basis alone.

A world euro foundation would enable development of its poorer eastern provinces such as Hungary, Czech Republic, Poland, Romania, perhaps even the Ukraine and western Russia. In the last several years, the US$ standard has encouraged mindless US consumer spending, oversized home construction, housing speculation, stock & bond speculation, and more. Those days will see a sunset. They represent the legacy of US indulgence, greed, and corruption of the system. Ibrahim warns that "There are already a number of countries within OPEC that would prefer to trade in euros." He speaks of a growing fallout from the Iraqi War, that traditional ally Saudi Arabia might switch also, though its government has not come down firmly on one side. First come the hint from rumblings, then comes the denial. After backroom preparation for change, finally we see the reality of change in action.

What follows must be heard closely, as it carries extreme significance regardless of your political position. Iraq has changed the geopolitical stage and its alignment. "There is a revision going on of its [Saudi] strategic relationship with the United States. Already, they are buying more [French-made] Airbuses," Ibrahim said. "The Saudi Crown Prince [Abdullah Bin Abdul Aziz Al-Saud] visit to Russia was of great significance and the regime is talking about closer cooperation with Lukoil and other Russian companies." One must consider a secondary motive in why the US attacked Iraq, related to preservation of the petro-dollar. Such a view is totally out of the field of vision by American observers and analysts. He went on with"There is a great political dimension to this. Slowly more power and muscle is moving from the United States to the EU, and that is mainly because of what happened in Iraq."

CONCLUSION
The implications are vast, worthy of discussion. In the last 15 years, the USA has learned through positive reinforcement a bad lesson in economics. The current administration, it appears, operates under the notion that twin deficits are stimulative and positive. SO IS CARDIAC ELECTRICAL SHOCK WITH PADDLE BOARDS STIMULATIVE TO A HEART ATTACK VICTIM FLAT ON HIS BACK. It is not positive. A catastrophe is in the making, as the erosion of the petro-dollar foundation continues inexorably. Such a development will undermined the USDollar in a lost world reserve status. Many inexperienced watchers proclaim SO WHAT ??? False bravado can be the accusation to defiance. To act in isolation with attitude strikes at the heart of the world currency responsibility. To act in isolation with attitude is foolhardy when we are so dependent upon world savings. Well, the answer is that soon, the US Economy will witness the consequences of fiscal and financial irresponsibility in the form of higher interest rates, as well as higher production costs and energy costs !!! No more carte blanche, blank check, free ride, endless freedom, unleashed behavior.

To some degree, a petro-dollar system shields the US Economy from higher prices for crude oil, diesel, heating oil, and gasoline. Foreign nations like Japan, and trading blocks like the European Union must collect large tranches of USDollars in order to conduct transactions for energy supplies. In doing so, they accumulate US$-based reserves. This phenomenon has softened the decline in the USDollar. Removal of the petro-dollar foundation will both push the US$ lower and lift the crude oil priced in US$ higher.

Observers and analysts alike are focused upon terrorist risk. They should pay greater notice to financial retaliation and grand shifts in its foundational structure. The United States owns tremendous superiority on the military battlefield. Our greatest vulnerability is financial, from the foreign dependence on credit supply, from supply chain import of energy and other commodities, and most of all from the continued acceptance of the petro-dollar system which serves as the foundation of the world monetary system. The petro-dollar is showing cracks, decay, and moss. Rivots are loose on the USDollar manhole cover, with chips and rust showing. One can clearly see Russian and Islamic feet attempted to tilt the manhole cover off its rim. Prepare for change.

These topics are fully discussed and analyzed in my private newsletter, and especially in special reports. Two (perhaps three) energy stocks in the portfolio are poised to rise 10-fold. The November issue cites three silver miner stocks which are also set to rise dramatically. In the coming year, look for silver to gain in price far more than gold as investment demand for the white precious metal kicks in. Meanwhile, don't look now but the Canadian Dollar is the strongest currency on earth. The ongoing and future development of its western provinces, the ongoing and future acquisition of their properties by China, these will only serve to gather even more momentum for both the looney currency and commodities.

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Jim Willie CB is a statistical analyst in marketing research and retail forecasting. He holds a PhD in Statistics. His career has stretched over 23 years. He aspires to thrive in the financial editor world, unencumbered by the limitations of economic credentials. Visit his free website to find articles from topflight authors at www.GoldenJackass.com.

Posted by richardlancaster at November 26, 2004 08:52 PM
Comments

It seems not a matter of if but when.
These rumblings will crash the dollar.
the USA economy can not find a place to put 2000 billion in spare change.
The highest bidder for the US dollar will be very low in thier offerings.
The USA will iether get hyperinflation or massive interest rate hikes.
I think the latter is the more likely.
Those poor souls without fixed interest loans on property will be toast.
What goes up, comes down, if you print cash just on the merit that others will use it then this can and will come crashing down. This could be the spark. but if it is then the
usa 25 trillion derivative market will implode along with it.
It only takes a few to run for the door for the others to follow .
I wish this was not so . But the usa had no right to dominate the world currency market this way and this is the moral inevitability.
Economics must follow morality real money must have real wealth behind it not attitude and influence.

thanks for this well written article , though not any thing new to those that read the site in the past .It is still the large ship moving full steam in the harbour.
When the dollar comes home to roost i pity those poor folks who have not invested in gold silver and their mining equities. as well as good farm land with water is a great investment.
We should at all costs try to aviod being the victim of our peers.

Nick Hodgson.

Posted by: NIck at November 27, 2004 01:19 AM

What is Putin complaining about?? When the Rubble was worthless, the IMF had to bail 'em out. Now he looks down on the dollar????

What are the Saudi's complaining about? We are their best customer and we probably saved their behinds from Sadaam Hussein who would have loved to become the ONLY mid-Eastern oil producer!

Japan/Europe should be happy that oil is marketed in dollars. It makes oil cheaper to their countries.


Europe, Japan, China and most of the Pacific Asian countries are crying because the dollar is weak. Apparently, they find it in their interest to have a strong dollar... With so many people crying wanting the dollar to go up, How far could it fall??

Shouldn't we Americans be complaining about the falling dollar instead of Euro-Asia?

Why wasn't anyone complaining when the dollar was strong? gold could be had for $250/oz, petroleum dipped to $10/barrel.

What happened??? China happened, that's what!! They sucked up a lot of dollars and now they are spending them. Don't like the weak dollar?? Then go complain to China/Japan. They are the countries that live off of exports...

Posted by: Tony at November 27, 2004 03:36 AM

Nobody wants to look the fool when the USD starts falling in earnest, and big oil producers (like Russia) definitely want their commodity priced in the strongest curreny. So Putin is doing what he has to do to look out for Mother Russia.

Most of all, no banker wants to see what might happen if even 5% of the $270 trillion in worldwide derivatives contracts get called. Greenspan has already stated the Fed and Treasury will do whatever is needed to ensure liquidity. Get ready for $100K Toyotas...

Posted by: TJK at November 27, 2004 04:32 AM

who cares........the world of economic mindspeak pales in comparison to the adventure of an eternity in the unknown.for there all is equally amazing and life flows like a river rapids on an uncharted sea.hey honey!!grab me another cold one!!

Posted by: numnuts at November 27, 2004 09:16 AM

The US defeated the USSR FINANCIALLY. Would it be so surprising for an x-KGB col to recognize how that door could swing the other way?

Posted by: MAC at November 27, 2004 12:35 PM

I do not think putin & Communist China have our best intentions at heart. France , russia venesuela, and saddam-iraq wanted to change over from dollars to using euros.

What most world citizens dont realize is all of their currencies are mostly Fiat fraud currencies made out of thin air basded on debt. Most world citizens want what americans have (cars , appliances, etc.) and they are borrowing from banks and maxing out credit cards just like americans today!

whether countries use our dollars or change will affect us & the trade deficit. america needs to borrow & sell its debt every working day and the amount is mind boggling!
But most countries economies are in trouble and in debt just like ours. their citizens use Fiat fraud money just like americans. The next great depression 2 will be worldwide remember its a global economy and if they think they can sit in russia and laugh when our stock market collapses and watch our dollar crumble they need to remember we buy products from eachother. when one suffers the other will feel it too, the repurcussions.

Many scientists still believe the large amount of nuclear weapons still working -available to be shot at eachother is excessive. Theres a good website the doomsday clock that shows how many seconds the earth is to a nuclear world war. The clock was in new york I think. you probably have heard of it and the scientists think russia and the u.s. and china-north korea sitll have enough problems that "A Nuclear War Could Occur" "MORE EASILY THAT MOST PEOPLE REALIZE" !

Ihave allways realized thats possible also nuclear terrorism but the percentage is way less compared to a new GREAT DEPRESSION 2. The coming GREAT DEPRESSION IS 200% GUARANTEED. I do not know what percent chance the scientists believe a nuclear war is possible but remember dick cheney said if Communist China invades Taiwan they would help Taiwan and it could esclate into a nuclear conflict. Remember when Commie China almost shot down (they tried to) our radar plane. were lucky we didnt go to war then! If we invade iran russia might retaliate. so the worlds economies collapsing in excessive debt and Fiat money is not the only thing to worry about.WHY CANT COUNTRIES GET ALONG PEACEFULLY??
The ruble was called wooden money so its no good either. like a wooden nickel.
I do feel thers way too many people in the world overpopulation and mother nature will compensate and take care of the problem!
putin and france and the UN were getting OIL in exchange for FOOD and their own UN laws forbade that. But remember money is most everyones GOD! its more important than anything. breaking their own laws does not matter as long as you dont get caught. well they got caught. The U.N. is a communist organization and cannot be trusted. Thats why they did not want bush to go into IRAQ because they knew the truth would get out food for OIL. Looks like other countries like oil just as much as americans. Makes you wonder why does russia need Iraq oil unless their wells are in decline or reserves overstated???

Hopefully russians can fight for their freedom.
Our stores will soon be as bare as theirs when depression 2 sets in. LET FREEDOM RING!

Posted by: CAPTAIN FREEDOM at November 28, 2004 03:26 PM

RE: Yukos---the fat lady ain't sung yet, watch who picks up the pieces

RE: Russia & the E.U.---during Boss Hoggski's [Yeltsin] reign, who put the money into Russia? Hint: it wasn't the US, we were funneling the money into China. And what economic system do the Russians want to join [& be a "Big Fish-ski"]?? i.e. look how mellow they've suddenly become over their fair-haired thug-selectee in the Ukraine, when the Europeans balked at that politico-scam.

RE: & who else buys massive qualities of energy from the Russkies, and what currency do they have tons of to pay in? and this buyer also buys weapons in aircraft carrier-sized lots.

Lots of skat up in the atmosphere over the northern hemishere tonight, fright fans.

Posted by: WildWestBill at November 29, 2004 02:31 AM

Gold? There isn't enough gold in this world to fill the basement of an average sized house. Lots of huffing and puffing with this gold business and price quotes. It is not the measure of wealth by any means. Can't eat it. It won't heat or cool your home. All of this stuff is designed to seperate from you and yours.

Applied knowledge, i.e. wealth, and the intelligent use of resources an economy makes, nothing else.

I want oil long before gold. Food long before gold. Clothing long before gold. A home and a family long, long before gold.

It is merely another means of exchange and nothing else. Trade and barter are far more effective than having gold.

If you would have all of the gold in the world, what would you profit? Nothing. It is high on my list of things I can do without.

Posted by: Ron at November 29, 2004 03:23 AM

To Ron;

Interesting take. I was originally just going to disregard your statement out of hand as just ignorant, but started to really think about it. The whole concept of money whatever it was or is, was a huge step forward in the evolution of humanity. It allowed workers to become much more focused on just one trade. The money allowed for me to use my specific training and vocation and put the value of that into the money, and then use that money to trade with others(duh everybody knows this). What this unfortunatly has allowed is for others to get in between us as individual laborers. There are usually in every small town and city in the country a coalition of barter advocates, who deal only with labor as a trading medium. They get around the problems of barter by creating their own defacto currency. A barter chip. The value of which is determined by the scarcity of what you can do. If you dug ditches or some other vocation that has allot of competition, your barter value would be less than if you were let's say a doctor. I know there would be allot of problems with such a system, I don't know that I'm even advocating it. It's just an interesting thought. Imagine a world not only without fiat money, but even gold as a trading medium. Only what you have in your two hands and between your ears as your bartering tools. Interesting.

Posted by: FeelingWeird at November 29, 2004 01:01 PM

Truly ignorant I might be and I really don't care. When gold was 250 USD per troy ounce, gasoline was a buck. Now, gas is two dollars per gallon and gold is 450 dollars. It's a wash.

If you want stable prices and money that is worth something, you need government regulation and fair taxation. It can't be any other way. Milk will be dumped on the streets if there isn't honest government. Honest government is what we don't have. A ridiculously stupid government is what we've got.

The first depression ended when people got off of their arses and worked. Hoover said: "Throw down your shovels and sit on your asses." Roosevelt said: "Get off your asses and pick up your shovels."

There is an excuse for ignorance, but not for stupidity.

Posted by: Ron at November 29, 2004 02:49 PM

Ron, you're way off topic, & confused about what gold is, or at least what gold has been. You seem to recognize that govt is stupid, but view this stupidity as a cause rather than as a symptom.

In world history, gold & silver evolved into money for a reason. When "money" has no intrinsic value, govts have been able to manipulate it for their own advantage. Ever single time, "fiat" money has been abused. So hard backing has historically provided a TRUTH element to money.

Posted by: MAC at November 29, 2004 03:36 PM

Not really. Putin wants to 'confiscate' oil. He knows where the money is. Oil is money more so than gold. Just like John Dillinger, he knows where the money is.

The stock market crashed on October 29, 1929 even with a gold backed dollar. An oversold market caused the crash. It didn't matter one iota if there was gold and silver backed money or fiat money.

Yes, it is true about gold and silver, but it is only 'gold and silver coin' that is legal tender. Fiat, schmiat. If you have 450 paper dollars, you get an ounce of gold. It must be US minted gold coin for it to be legal.

Dollars are cheap in comparison to the euro. The euro is backed by 15% gold. Big deal. At some point it will flip flop, and Russia will chase after the dollar. The gamble is on, and their are those who will be accumulating the cheap dollars in hopes for it to rise against a future waning euro.

A stupid, corrupt government is the cause, not the symptom.

The symptom is the out of control, careening economy with no brakes.

Posted by: Ron at November 29, 2004 04:14 PM

Ron;

First of all I said I was going to call your first comments ignorant not you. Then I rethought outside my usual pro gold stance and thought about barter as a tool minus government and gold, and thought, why not ? Eliminate govenment interference in our labors. Allow the free market to again decide what is valuable and what isn't. Currently we are told the green pieces of paper are worth "x". When in reality it isn't worth shit. Maybe oil should be the next denominator of labor. I actually am warming to the barter thought. The more I dig into it, the better it seems to get. Some barter clubs"for lack of a better term", have their own currency. If you do computer work for John Doe you earn credits on the barter system that can be used for barter with someone else. This of course has it's own pitfalls. If somone who is in control of the credits starts to mess with the system and make credits worth more or less for their own ends. Which leads to KEEPING THE GOVERNMENT OUT OF IT !!!

Ron I guess I didn't read your post very carefully, because now I see that you aren't advocating barter or trade, just that they are better than gold(or the dollar I am guessing). From the tone of your 2nd post, I guess you are one of the many govenment enablers amongst us. I just have to say this next part in CAPS, just because I need to vent. GOVENMENTS CANNOT BE TRUSTED, WAKE THE HELL UP. The whole point of this experiment called America was a test of how long American's would be willing to resist the easy road of government supplied security. After my reading of history, I am guessing we gave up around the year 1930. FDR pretty much neutered what was left of old America and put firmly and finaly into place a new American facism. This is the ultimate irony in that, that's what we ended up fighting 11 years later. But, our govenmental system was no different. We had governmental control of all business(through the tax code and the new dictatorial powers of the executive branch). And you had corporate powers controlling the now entrenched govenment.

I say this with all sincerity and power that I can muster. GOVERNENT WILL NOT HELP US, THEY WILL ONLY DESTROY US !!!!!!! Stop waiting for the next law to help us. When the crash comes, let's be prepared, both economically and intelectually. Prepare yourself to know why this happened and share it with anyone who will listen. Govenment and their corporate enablers did this. And don't let them use this crash as an excuse to drill the final nails into the coffin of this experiment called America !!

Posted by: FeelingWeird at November 29, 2004 04:53 PM

Tricks and treachery are the practice of fools, that don't have brains enough to be honest. - Benjamin Franklin

A stupid, corrupt, fear-mongering, war-mongering government will definitely destroy us. It preys upon the hapless taxpayer every inch of the way.

I pay taxes every time I turn around. I am forced to enable a stupid, corrupt government. You are, too.

America will move forward, regardless of what kind of fate befalls the US government.

Posted by: Ron at November 29, 2004 06:06 PM

Amen Ron !!

Posted by: Feeling Weird at November 29, 2004 07:23 PM

Ron, oil could be used as the backing, or part of the backing, for a currency; but by itself it fails as money. It is too bulky and doesn't store all that well. It is perishable & can even be explosive...all problems not shared by gold.

It seems odd to me for you to express the belief that a depression is comming, & see no value in gold. Why do you think the price of gold is going up, jewelry demand?

By the way, we do agree that govt is stupid; I believe they are a reflection of us.

Posted by: MAC at November 30, 2004 01:17 AM

If I possessed a 100,000 barrels of oil, it would be gone tomorrow at 50 bucks a barrel. If I had 10,000 ounces of gold, which would be very tough to accumulate, I would have trouble selling it all in one day at 450 dollars an ounce.

4.2 million gallons of oil might be hard to come by,too, but it would be much easier to sell in one day than 10,000 ounces of gold. It would be gone in an hour and I would have 5 million dollars, then I'd go buy gold. If I would have 10,000 ounces of gold, I'd need a bank to store it and fear getting robbed. A lot of headache with gold, believe me. If I had 100,000 barrels of oil, customers would be back the next day for some more and I would be another 5 million dollars richer. The return from oil far outweighs the return from gold.

It's simplistic, I know, but it's true.

Posted by: Ron at November 30, 2004 03:33 AM

Ron,

10000 ounces would be easy to sell, 1000 at a time every hour for 10 hours... There are plenty of wholesalers and people on the COMEX that buy in 1000 ounce lots. 10000 ounces = 280kilos = 25 400oz bars at https://online.kitco.com/sellprice/selling.html

A lot less than what was shown on Italian Job movie. 25 bars is about 1 largish silver brief case. I have seen a real 1000 OZ bar being melted/poured into its shape, so seeing 10 of them together isnt hard to imagine, though easily fitable into a briefcase, you would need help carrying it, or use 10 small boxes that can be moved easily.

100,000 barrels, now that takes up a lot of physical space, about 150,000 sqft. How much OIL/gas does it take to MOVE that 100,000 barrels? A hell more than what it takes to put 25 bars into your car/truck (with that $40/hr security guard/ex-marine)

Now selling 500 billion barrels would be easier than 500,000 kilos of gold.

On a personal note, selling 20 ounces of gold is easier than 1 barel in your backyard. Processed fully useable kerocene, that is easier to sell.

A bag of tomatoes or lettuce? Easy to sell at markets.

Posted by: Ralster at November 30, 2004 05:13 AM

Mac, Ron, & Weird,
You guys are way overthinking this. What does the stupid US consumer do every month [for years & years]? He pumps an additional $40-50+ billion cash into the global money bazaar. Something's gotta "soak up" all that paper, ergo: oil ['earl' as we say in Texas], the #1 most traded commodity on earth [coffee is #2]. Now 'earl' has a limit to what it can soak up, hence: T-bonds & notes. They too are limited [Bush had to create some more, didn't he?] we've commoditized 'em...next is gold [soak-up medium #3], but it's a pittance of a sponge compared to 1 & 2. It's value is in its economic prescience....like the 3rd roller, finally turning on our 1-armed bandit of global capitalism. Next stop: RESET...and higher returns to capital. That's what's about to happen...& an in a big, big way. They won't let it collapse [that twit Jimmy Carter already tried]...but y'all need to make your plans accordingly.

Posted by: WildWestBill at November 30, 2004 05:42 AM

Ron, where are you keeping your oil? I own gold, have posession of it. Some is stored in other places, some is right here w/ me. I also own a commodities/resources oriented mutual fund, so in a way I do own oil. But I would never consider keeping some of it here w/ me. Do you keep any of your barrels in your house? Have you considered putting only some of your 5 to 6 million in gold. Maybe even just 5 to 10 percent.

Bill, I didn't follow on your "next stop: RESET...and higher returns to capitol". Are you predicting a boom in US stock & bond markets? I would think the opposite more likely.

Posted by: MAC at November 30, 2004 12:41 PM

I wouldn't have to have physical possession of the oil. It would be gone in no time.

You will notice that Vlad isn't trying to 'confiscate' gold. Oil is his bag, too.

Posted by: Ron at November 30, 2004 01:23 PM

Ron, your comments regarding gold & oil suggest that you are comparing investments & you just don't get the gold story. Your only historical comment focusing on gold is that it failed to prevent the Great Depression, which I hadn't realized it was supposed to do. Perhaps there is more history that you should consider, but it's your choice whether you do or not.

As you know, your opinion of precious metals is the majority view. Probably fewer than 5% own gold as other than jewelry. Most continue to hold paper assets because they cannot envision a collapse of the "system".

Hopefully it does not fail! But what if it stumbles? What if some large financial institutions fail and some paper assets cannot be recovered? In the 30s, many people lost everything because their bank failed. Having physical posession of some fungible assets could prove benificial.

Posted by: MAC at November 30, 2004 03:46 PM

Even during a depression there is excess in the marketplace that individuals accumulate and desire to exchange for a store of value that is consistent over time, that store of value is gold or silver.

After you've hoarded your dried goods, ammunition and heating supplies (don't forget toilet paper!) you may wish to store some physical precious metals!

All over the world peasants, like me, still desire physical gold as insurance against a monetary system they cannot understand. From Indian weddings to Bahrainian bar mitzvah's (OK...I made that bit up) physical gold is changing hands in an ancient ritual of passing on to future generations the most recognizable store of value (they ain't handing over bags of US Dollars...Dad keeps those under the mattress for day trading....along with cartons of Marlboro's).

It doesn't really matter what we think of gold here in the west, we are in the small minority, there are billions of other types of folks out there who don't give a hoot what we think about fiat currency systems and Sir Alan's manipulations.

In Asia, and increasingly more so in China, gold is King. As the Chinese come back online in terms of capitalism (or whatever you want to call it, perhaps Commutalism?) you'll see the desire for physical gold ownership rising steadily.

Every American should own some physical gold and silver. The act of buying precious metals is also a vote of no-confidence in our current leadership, a vote for Constitution money, sound finance, responsibility and decency.

Here is some voting advice (from the guy who predicted a Skull & Bones member would win the last election!):

Vote out: fractional reserve banking, central banking, usury interest rates, unregulated derivatives, members of secret societies, central planners/socialists, military industrialists, energy moguls, media mavens and technology tyrants.

Vote in: sound money, the gold standard (or a basket of precious metals standard - - anything to make these bastards live and play by SOME RULES), Ron Paul (with some minor changes), alternative energy guru's, sustainable technology engineers, debt-free grandparents, and Constitutionalists!

Anyway, to return to the theme of precious metals, gold is what human's resonate to in times of extreme economic stress - its what the collective subconscious craves during trouble - - so go get some!

Cheers Rich

Posted by: Rich Lancaster at November 30, 2004 05:25 PM

The goods and services provided to the American Empire are a form of tribute and U.S dollars are the receipt of payment.

Should the U.S military fail in the Empires bid for global domination, the U.S dollar will falter and the Empire will weaken.

Military power is the basis for the strength of the U.S dollar.

It is hard to tell with the onslaught of propaganda how the Legions are faring with the troublesome provinces of the empire, but the dollar would tell us that they are not doing so well lately.

Nothern View

Posted by: Northern View at November 30, 2004 06:02 PM

True enough. I do own physical silver, gold and precious gems. Also, I wish I had bought more. There is plenty of it. There was oodles of it before 1964. BTW, the first 50 million FRN's were issued the day of President Kennedy's funeral.

There has been a coup de tat in this country, but everybody keeps rolling along.

Gold and silver are not difficult to obtain for me, but I sure hate parting with all of it. The hope is that I won't have to do so.

"There's a particle of risk in every venture." A line in the movie 'Little Big Man', if I recall it correctly.

How are you going to vote out and in all of those things/issues when we have a corrupt political process that sees to it that the vote is rigged?

The 2000 election was bad enough, 2004 was worse.

We're in a real pickle with all of the cronyism and an uncaring government.

Posted by: Ron at November 30, 2004 06:57 PM

How many of you have seen the commercial where the guy says "IM IN DEBT UP TO BY EYEBALLS" !
"HELP ME SOMEBODY". Its funny yet sadly true! The Commercial starts with him showing off his huge home, rich neighborhood, like my car its NEW! He belongs to the ritzy Golf club, has a new POOL & Barbeque, ETC. and then he says how can I do all this ?
"IM in Debt up to my Eyeballs" - basically he's saying Im way over my head in DEBT! Then he says Someone HELP ME!
People dont realize thats the situation "MANY Americans" find themselves in today.
They saw that their govt. is way deep in debt so "It Must Be OK for ME to be in DEBT?" right? My Govt. is! well Wrong!.
THIS "PROVES" AND ENDS the debate For "GOLD AND SILVER" AND CONDEMN'S the defense of FIAT MONEY is for fools, and the simple minded!

Look up the {type in} :
" Fed. Reserve Consumer price index Calculator"
first type in 1964 then 2004, the Fiat fraud dollar has lost 84% of its value and today is worth .16 cents compared to a lawful silver dollar in 1964. Its $6.04 to $1. Now those of you Intelligent people that are for gold remember 1 ounce of gold in 1964 was worth $35.00 an OZ. well today in 2004 its worth $450.00 an ounce. thats an increase of 1200% or 12 times its value!!!

I REST MY Case!!!

Paper is a renewable resource. Gold is a finite rare resource.

Our govt. was restricted by the gold standard gee too bad , GOOD , They could not overborrow and overspend. GOLD was like a "Balanced Budget Amendment" ! It kept irresponsibility and greed in check! then some greedy smart ass came up with an Idea lets print play money thats looks like real money silver certificate but , this play money - fiat is "Redeemable in nothing" with "NO INTRINSIC VALUE"! AT LEAST FOOD COUPONS ARE WORTH 1/100 OF A CENT. Im suprized americans in 1964 which were smarter than todays generation took them at all! Maybe theyre like todays americans working, and feeding-supporting their family and too busy to notice. and way too trusting!

One major reason why world citizens are deep in debt up to their eyeballs in mortgage ,and credit card, & other debt is because their medium of exchange the scam Fed. Dollar,and most currencies today are worthless fiat, has lost "SO MUCH OF ITS VALUE" they cannot buy goods and services "OUTRIGHT ANYMORE" LIKE IN 1964. TODAY PEOPLE HAVE TO BORROW FOR
"SMALL ITEMS" {APPLIANCES,HEALTH CARE, FOOD, CLOTHING, EVERYTHING} LET ALONE CARS , HOMES.

No wonder people buy "Made in Communist China" products ! Its Because their Fed. Dollar is a worthless piece of SHIT! and does not buy much of everything today. They have to buy the cheap stuff!

Have you been to the food store recently??
You can go into a Food store and spend $100.00 and carry your groceries out in your arms!.
In 1964 $100.00 worth of lawful money you could buy $604.00 in goods and svs. today, thats the exchange in goods and services. It takes $6.04 in 2004 compared to $1.00 in 1964.

To go 1 step further from 1924 to 1964 on the gold Std. $1.00 only inflated .77 cents so you can see lawful money did not lose value like its unlawful counterpart today. thats 1/8th as much.
This is right from the horses mouth the Fed. Reserves own Website - calculator!!!! their own calculator condemns themselves.

Hell many people think that statistic is generous and $1.00 today compared to 1964 is only worth a dime or less $1.00 = .10 cents!!!!

To Get ready for the coming New GREAT DEPRESSION 2 YOUD BETTER BUY STORAGE FOOD 1ST ,Then Gold, silver u.s. coins . pre 1965 coins or eagles. I would pay off your bills mortgage or move near a water source and downsize. become energy efficient. Buy a paid off or used gas efficient car or bio-diesel vehicle or compressed air car if you can find one. Buy extra medicine ,warm clothing, wood stove, and get your family prepared for a great Depression "MUCH WORSE THAN 1930'S"
If you have not already prepared I would not buy much for christmas. I would buy long storage shelf food asap. the coming Great Depression has just started but will not be in full swing until 2008 when average americans wake up and realize theyre govt. is broke!! $44 TRILLION DOLLARS BROKE LOOK UP 2004 TREASURY REPORT.

The Warnings are out there. There are still a few responsible govt. employees {public servants} out there IN This Republic!. excluding Kerry and Bush! The last treasury secretary was "fired" because he warned us of whats coming. He released the 2004 Treasury report that warned social security and medicare will cost $44 TRILLION DOLLARS WHEN BABY BOOMERS START TO RETIRE in 2008. the govt tried to shelve- cover up the report.? wonder why? This is reality! , the govt. said it not me! Then when Bush said the war in Iraq would cost
$50 Billion Dollars the secretary said it would actually cost $100 Billion or more and gee he was fired!!!!!!!!! damn we cant have govt. servants telling the truth to american citizens.
Fired for telling the truth. Thats not the 1st time thats happened! anyway we the people have been warned, so those of you that are still in denial, and asleep youd better wake up fast. or you can wait until 2008 for the wake up call!! better prepare time is short only 3 years till 2008, 05,06,07, then wake up were bankrupt!!!! GOOD LUCK!!
LET FREEDOM RING!! FOR ALL.

Posted by: CAPTAIN FREEDOM at December 1, 2004 06:17 PM

Minimum wage in 1969, when I became a minimum wage earning working stiff, was 1.60 USD. Gold was 35.00 USD.

Today, gold is 453.50 USD.

1.60/35.00 = x/453.50

x = 20.71 USD per hour MINIMUM wage, proportionate to the current price of gold.

We're being robbed at the work place, big time, or gold is way over priced. I think I'm being robbed. No wonder I never have any money to spend.

Christmas is just around the corner. It is going to be a little one this year.

Posted by: Ron at December 1, 2004 06:35 PM

Agree w/Ron
when government is corrupt to the core (as we have evolved today in the u.s.--only America slaps a happy face on rampant, no accountability capitalism=theft)eventually the elite runs into itself and the rank and file collide and crash all over the place. Who cares a rat's ass about selling/bartering gold then? the entire system is collapsing before our eyes and even the elites will be greatly affected-the top tier (recips of the bush tax cuts) will not be spared-the very top tier powerful may be spared in the onset phase of a depression-but that's about it. the bush family cartel have always been in the business of making money for their family line-just like the Windsors, et al - they believe in the Divine Right of Kings-and they absolutely believe that they are the true blue-blood dynastic line to rule America. It is no wonder that the boy bush behaves as he does, paying lip service (and not much at that) to democratic principles and doing just the opposite-being completely OK with his "let them eat cake" kind of rulership. There is no cake left in America for the People to eat-and very little bread as well.

Posted by: Devin at December 1, 2004 10:21 PM

Back in ca. 1950, Iraq was a newcomer in the oil developmenting stage in the world. The government of Iraq received 51 percent of the oil revenue and the oil companies the re. Apparently, that wasn't good enough and the US government pulled a Putin and is attempting to confiscate all of the Iraqi oil. All of Iraq has been divvied up by corporations, so they say. I don't know, but it looks like it's up for grabs.

Looks like Putin is looking out for Mother Russia and nothing else. If anybody is doing any robbing, confiscating, it is Yukos.

Government must have high taxes on billion dollar profit businesses, otherwise rampant corporatism and its gaping maws do considerable damage to any sound government. Look at what we've got.

I've been poor and I didn't like it much. Been in places I'd rather not be. You know when to run. It is better to have than to have not; there is no convincing anyone of that. Not that I'm rich by any means, but appearances can be deceiving. Maybe the rich aren't so rich afterall.

All of the smoke and mirrors is from the man behind the curtain. Putin isn't getting fooled by anybody. Mr. Putin is more interested in European goods rather than American products. Easier done with euros, not dollars. Russia will be richer, not poorer. Kind of looks that way.

Much to the chagrin of the US and the US gov. Now, the stakes have become too high. Russia will win this chess match. The toppled king looks like Bush, too.

Hey, I've got an idea. How about the US gov get back in touch with the American people, looks like they're being ignored and abused rather profusely of late... maybe that is what has to be done... before it's too late.

Posted by: Ron at December 2, 2004 03:33 AM

IMPORTANT QUESTION PLEASE READ AND RESPOND !!

We are all on this site for a reason. The reasons may be varied but the over riding common thread is that we all know something is wrong with America and we are truly afraid of what's to come.

QUESTION #1 The question is not IF but WHEN it will happen. I have seen 2008 ,next year ,2010 as possible dates. But for YOU, what will you have to see happen for you to pop your chute. What will be the HOLY S%it event that will make you know that it's going down now. Or do you think that there will be no seminal moment and it will just slowly boil us into complacency.

QUESTION #2 Specifically, what are you doing to get yourself ready in the interim. Paying debt? Downsizing. Or more radical stuff like digging wells and digging food storage areas to hide food?
I would like to know what you are really doing, not just what we should be doing.

I for one am not cinvinced of the imminenacy of the crash and I am paying off debt and trying to build a nice nest egg of both cash(for daily payments) and silver and gold(for value storage). I am hoping that I have at least 2 more years to finish this stage. My next stage is 2 years from now, to buy land far enough from the city(but close enough to work), and start my tranistion to a more self sufficient life style. Planting fruit trees and learning how to bottle stuff. The way I look at it, these are good things to know anyways. So, even if they somehow fool everyone and keep it afloat past my death, I will still be OK with the choices I had made.

Posted by: Feeling Weird at December 2, 2004 02:11 PM

Good questions, FW.

Regarding Q 1, I'm guessing that we will be given a sign when it officially begins. Here are a few possibles: pandemic sweeping the planet killing millions, US middle east forces are defeated by Iran, foreigners sell treasuries causing a dollar crash. There are plenty of other possibilities, and they may all occur in succession.

Q 2, We sold our house & now rent. We've also put most of our eggs in the pm basket. Our IRSs are in mining funds & stocks as well. We own some "survivalist" equipment, but not much. We don't really expect a total collapse that is lasting.

Posted by: MAC at December 2, 2004 02:58 PM

Im still suprized by many posters to this website. Yes! Pres. Bush is "NOT" a Good President! but do not even fool yourself into believeing that " KERRY" would have made a good president either!

Kerry would have OVERSPENT this REPUBLIC into Bankruptcy just like Bush is doing right now!

Kerry lied to us that Social Security will be there for us and that it can be saved?!

Fact the 2 major Parties are one monster with 2 heads. No major difference.

Kerry voted himself a "pay raise" ? Feb. 2004 when millions of americans have lost their jobs because of sept/11 and because The DOT.COM Bubble Burst under Clintax Jan. 2000 and Clinton was President for "1 year" after the dot.com bubble burst. How dare Kerry and Congress vote themselves a "pay Raise" when were at "WAR" with IRAQ. They make $105,000 + each year and 80% of americans make $50,000 or less each year how dare they ask for more. Theyre paid thru tax money robbed from us. Bush and Kerry are out of touch and do not give a damn about us! Wars are expensive and our govt is trillions of dollarts in debt yet congress gets a pay raise and some idiots still believe somehow our govt can still balance the budget????????? or that politicians from the 2 major parties actually give a damn and care about us. wake up they dont.

The 2004 election is a "NON ISSUE" WHOEVER WON WOULD NOT CHANGE THE FACT THAT OUR GOVT WOULD NOT CHANGE OVERBORROWING,& SPENDING TO EXCESS UNTIL THEY BANKRUPT THIS REPUBLIC!

BUSH HA ! "NEVER AGAIN" WILL I LET A REPUBLICAN CALL THEMSELVES A "Conservative" what a lie and a JOKE~ to CONSERVE Means "Spend Less not More"

KERRY Fact: voted FOR the $87 Billion Dollars to continue the war in IRAQ? why. This shows they have no intention of spending less .We have to Balance our budget , checkbook and pay taxes yet our politicians keep overborrowing and overspending. Please do not fool yourself that any 95-97% of our politicians will spend less and miraculously Balance our budget. Its impossible our central bank system is based on DEBT! it dies without Debt being created! Our politicians have promised so much entitlements that today there are "way too many so called freebies! people forget these freebies are paid thru robbing others paychecks. Food stamps , social security {pyramid scheme} Medicare, medicaid, SHOULD BE ILLEGAL. USING THE GOVT TO PAY YOUR BILLS THRU STEALING IS STILL STEALING.
I do "NOT" want to live thru a Great Depression but at least it will stop most "so called"
entitlement freebie programs COLD!!! GOOD!You have the right to life liberty and pursuit of happiness not free money. Get a real job and stop stealing from others by using govt. force.

The one Big LIE im tired of hearing Democrats say is that Clinton MADE a SURPLUS! what a lie. Why do americans get confused between yearly budget and National Debt ??
New technology {DVD'S, Windows 95-98 & other computers, Cell Phones, Digital Camera's, ETC} being sold made that extra money year in tax returns not Clintax "YET" our govt was still 5 Trillion dollars in Nat. Debt. not including off budget expendatures. Hillary was going to pass Govt Health care, a joke! a spending nightmare and budget buster!!!!!!!!

The National Debt "Increased" under Clinton so the little extra made by new technology "should HAVE GONE TO PAYING OFF THE NATIONAL DEBT! BUT DID IT? "NO"!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Then at the end of his term the Dot.Com Bubble "BURST" and the Dow went to 6995 for a day before settling down. Clinton was president for "1 whole Year" after the January 2000 bubble burst.

What im tring to get at is he could have tried to pay off the national debt but did not!

The national Debt will increase wether a Republican or Democrat is in office because our dollar is based on Debt! not gold anymore!!
Our Dollar was still devaluing each year in goods and services!! in the 1990's. how can americans be so asleep and trusting??????

You had better get prepared because our 2 major parties will overspend this once Free Republic into Bankruptcy. You can count on it. the amount of govt. employees getting paychecks paid by taxation is "more that our budget can afford. Thats a fact!

Hell you can bet on it? Its a sure bet. a suckers bet. any betters out there that still think somehow a miracle will occur and our congress & president either democrat controlled or republican controlled will spend less ?, and a miracle will occur? what a sad joke laugh! better prepare time is short for our currency and other countries Fiat Currency. Im glad at least the Fed. Reserve lie will soon be over!

please stop believeing that either a democrat or a republican can save the dollar. they cannot . They cannot save social security or medicare also. voting for either 2 major parties is a waste of time! spend your time getting prepared for the coming GREAT DEPRESSION BROUGHT UPON US BECAUSE OF EXCESSIVE DEBT, EXCESSIVE SPENDING, EXCESSIVE BORROWING, AND A FRAUD LIE FED. DOLLAR.
REMEMBER BOTH MAJOR PARTIES VOTED "FOR" A
$800 BILLION DOLLAR BUDGET SPENDING INCREASE. RAISING OUR DEBT CEILING TO $8.2 TRILLION . WE WILL REACH THAT IN ONE YEAR , SAD! JOKE.

WERE ALL AMERICANS AND WE THE PEOPLE NEED TO WAKE UP OUR 2 PARTY SYSTEM IS BROKEN AND CORRUPT. THE ONLY THING THAT SHOULD MATTER TO YOU NOW IS FOOD , CLOTHING , AND SHELTER. WE NEED TO GET ALONG PEACE ,LET FREEDOM RING.

Posted by: CAPTAIN FREEDOM at December 2, 2004 03:00 PM

development, not 'developmenting'. Just overlooked the mistake .

What to do? Well, If you can, move to the Yukon. It's nicer there than one would think. The Chilkoot lager from the Yukon Brewing Company is outstanding. Best in the world. I met people there from Switzerland. They love it there. Another person was from Uruguay. It is booming. It is 34 degrees Fahrenheit there right now. It was 85 degrees there in August when I was there. Beautiful spot on the planet, relatively remote and safe. It's warmer there than where I'm at in the lower 48. Whitehorse is a killer town. Too much baggage for me to carry to get there at this stage in my life.

I'm already in a remote spot, with a well, a long ways from any kind of a megalopolis population center. I bought silver way back in 1981, it has finally reached the price where I bought it. I bought because word was out at that time that it was going to jump astronomically in price. Don't believe everything that you hear. I have no gold coins, just junk gold. Most of the double eagles that were confiscated by Roosevelt ended up in Europe; something I once read, anyway.

There is trouble in River City. I've got my venison in the freezer. If it all goes to hell in a handbasket, no amount of preparation will help much.

Posted by: Ron at December 2, 2004 03:18 PM

I liken Putin changing the pricing of oil from dollars to euro a lot like Britain going off the gold standard in the late 20's...early 30's.

I've been thinking a lot about the deflation vs. hyperinflation scenario that could the the endgame to all this. At first I thought our path would be similar to America 1930's...deflationary. Then I considered the Weimar republic of the 1920's... hyperinflationary. Now I'm thinking about Britain in the early 30's late 20's. That should be the best recent comparison history can give us. You could also look at the monetary history of the roman empire but that might be for another day.

So what happens to a superpower whose currency has world reserve status on the onset of the deflationary phase in the Kondratieff cycle? Does anyone here know what happened to britain's economy in the 1927 - 1938 time frame. Here are the facts.
1. The pound was the worlds currency convertible to gold.
2. Britain was forced to abandon the Gold standard at somepoint in this time frame...maybe 1928.
3. We know that America had massive deflation but America had mostly internal debt.

Questions.
1. Did Britain suffer deflation or inflation over this time period.
2. What happened to the british stock market at that time?
3. What did the dow look like priced in pounds over this time period?
4. What happend to housing prices in britain over this time period.
5. Were there bread lines like in the US i.e. just how bad was it over there?

Posted by: Michael at December 2, 2004 05:03 PM

The last 13 posts are off topic. Must be spooks and goons at work.

Posted by: Ron at December 3, 2004 01:16 AM

Thanks Ron.

I just cleaned it up. We have to stay on our toes with this stuff.

Cheers Rich

Posted by: Rich Lancaster at December 4, 2004 06:14 PM
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