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PREDICTIONS FOR 2005

December 27, 2004

OK folks, it's that time of year again when the Predictions for the following year come together. We should reflect on the past year, look in to the crystal ball for the following year and then share what we feel is going to happen next. If you've got a minute how about sharing your perspective on the following items [ending 2005], I'm sure all readers would benefit from seeing diverse perspectives:

1. Where will the dollar index end the year?

2. What will be the Price of Gold?

3. What will be the Price of Oil?

4. Where will the DOW end the year?

5. Will the Yuan decouple from the Dollar in '05, YES or NO?

6. Do you see a major Economic Collapse in '05, YES or NO?

Then add any general statement about 2005 which you feel is key to the coming year. There is no doubt in my mind that 2005 will be an important year for all of us.

Cheers Rich

Posted by richardlancaster at December 27, 2004 06:38 PM
Comments

$...73
gold...$515
oil...$75
dow...6300
yuan...yes
economic collapse...no

The above predictions are based on the supposition that foreign banks will no longer finance our debt.


...73

Posted by: frank makosky at December 27, 2004 06:56 PM

I am a seventh day adventist and we have always believed that the church and state will soon join and create a sunday (first in america and then worldwide). I believe there will be some kind of cataclysmic event next year (terror attack,economic collapse or both). Go to the websites www.amazingfacts.com www.finalevents.com and check out the book "NATIONAL SUNDAY LAW".
Notice how the church and state are joining under this administration. Go to any seventh day adventist church and see the bibles prophecies are being fulfilled before our eyes.
Note: we are not a cult like some people want to believe!!!!

Posted by: mr.kuntz at December 27, 2004 06:58 PM

1. 65...... ain't gonna be pretty
2. $575..... and still cheap
3. $40..... still has some market force stability
4. 8,900......and still grossly overvalued
5. no..... can't raise prices to biggest customer
6. (we've been in a major collaspe since 1974....)

Predict big story this year will be Bushy boyz get busted..... They will fail in trying to steal SSI funds for their Wall St. thuggos..... Can't mess with the 'gray' lobby.... They'll figure it out...... Late in the year enough folk will be fed up with the Iraq thing and also pressure Bushy.... His administration will get pretty limp quickly in this term.....Won't be bad enough to cause total monetary or economic 'collaspe' that soon but things will continue to get worse.....

Gee, remember before the mid-seventies the AVERAGE houshold could be run on ONE income. In the past 30 years it has taken TWO incomes (I think that qualifies as an economic collaspe, at least from where I am)...... Now, it looks like it'll take THREE incomes to run the AVERAGE household....... Hmmmmmmmm.....

Posted by: bud buddy (red state) at December 27, 2004 07:30 PM

USDX .68
Gold $545
OIL $55 will hit $100 at some point
DOW 8200 will drop below 7000
Yuan yes will "re" peg after USDX drops below .77
Economic collapse is hard to define, but 2005 will astonish everyone. US$ collapse, stock market collapse, US electoral fraud exposed(Kerry will be in the White House before June), military disasters, terror strikes...


Posted by: SBT at December 28, 2004 01:10 AM

1.$ .35
2. $1200 +/-
3. $150 +/-
4. NO
5. YES

China will try to maintain its' economy under the present circumstances as long as possible to retain as much cheaper energy as it can stick in the ground and save & Burn. As the World gets' tired of finacing americas debt, the dollar will continue its plunge and be replaced by what is being seen, as Gold and silver and valuable metals being bought and retained by more and more people as a hedge against fiat money systems collapse.History has shown us that Fiat money systems always have.collapsed. Usually because of irresponsible handling and untrue accounting practices and market manipulation that eventually destroy the free market system. Gold and silver and precious Metals will rise as economics wasting spills into the economy. Further increasing this economic behavior will be Saudi Arabias inability to increase Production out of Gwahr Oil fields and other over produced fields and stressed out fields in Saudi Arabia. Which will manifest itself on the market because of supply and demand issues. China has not slowed down on it's thirst for oil and non-renewable energy consumption, nor has anyone in the world. They will continue on their track.
The New wars will be waged for OIL. YIKES! It is already manifesting itself in the Big trade agreements that have been made between Iran and Russia,India,China and Brazil and possibly Venezuela coming into the pact as this year gets on its' way. The race to secure oil reserves is moving forward. A sure sign of Peak Oil. I see Oil reserves like this, for example. All the oil reserves in the world are in Lake Michigan! We in the World have sucked 1/2 of it up and burned it and there's only half left! Then, We will only be able to pull 1/2 of what remains out of the ground and Governments know this. The rise in precious metals will continue as Economic Violance ensues slowly at first then heavily towards the ned of this summer r maybe end of this year. depending on how governments move on certain issues. That will be the thing to watch.

Posted by: Decoymaker at December 28, 2004 01:34 AM

I'd like to ammend my post:
1.$.35
2.$1200 +/-
3.$150 +/-
4. 2300 +/-
5. No
6. Yes

Posted by: decoymaker at December 28, 2004 01:44 AM

1. Dollar index at year end? -- .90

2. Price of Gold? -- $400

3. Price of Oil? -- $35

4. DOW? -- 7000

5. Yuan decouple from the Dollar in '05? -- no

6. Major Economic Collapse in '05?? -- Yes, in China!

The Chinese economy will surprise many by taking a nose dive in '05. There will be massive rioting and bloodshed across the PRC as the government tries to keep control in the face of growing civil unrest. Commodity prices will fall dramatically.

The U.S. Economy will enter a funk, but will not "collapse" per se. The dollar will stage a big rally as investors burned in the Chinese debacle seek refuge in the relative safety and stability of U.S. investments. This will offset furious selling by hedge funds and investors in the U.S. as bond markets try to cope with problems in real estate and consumer credit markets.

Posted by: TJK at December 28, 2004 01:49 AM

December 27, 2004

1. Where will the dollar index end the year? .61 euro

2. What will be the Price of Gold? $495

3. What will be the Price of Oil? $50

4. Where will the DOW end the year? 11,700

5. Will the Yuan decouple from the Dollar in '05, YES or NO? (yes)

6. Do you see a major Economic Collapse in '05, YES or NO? (no)

Escalation of hostilities in the Middle East and elsewhere. A major collapse of the US economy will be averted, but the US will experience continued economic weakness resulting in a collapsing dollar, declining investment in US, and sky-high import prices.

Posted by: Tony Victor at December 28, 2004 02:09 AM

To Mr. Kuntz.

Dear sir,

Do you know what the US Government did to 7th day adventists during WW2, that wouldn't fight in the wars? They used them for Chemical and Biological experiments in the testing of Lewicite and mustard gas. Killing most of them. Not to knock you religion ,but 7th day adventists have been predicting the end of the world for years with no happening commin to fruitation...ever! People like you scare the Hell out of people like me! You live to see the end of Gods creation !
A bunch of pessimists at best! You tear down everything in your paths ideologically, before you ever give it a chance to get of the ground and fly. And even if the Federal government passed a National Sunday law? Do you think they'd beable to enforce it threw subversion onto the people? Hah! God is much more than what you people see him as. Much more! It's no wonder you people see UN Train Cars in the USA with guillitines on them. Dementia is a Drag isn't it?

Posted by: Decoymaker at December 28, 2004 02:09 AM

1. Dollar index at year end? not good

2. Price of Gold? -- $600-900

3. Price of Oil? -- $60-90

4. DOW? -- will be higher due to inflated prices

5. Yuan decouple from the Dollar in '05? -- ???

6. Major Economic Collapse in '05?? -- not major, but it will continue its downward movement for a few more years.

Posted by: Fin at December 28, 2004 02:16 AM

To TJK,

If Chinas' economy does collapse as you say it may. And US Investers lose so much in the market! What will they have left to invest in making the new industrial manufacturering base come back in America? The USA's Manufacturering base is in terrible shape and would take tons of Money! TONS!
How do you see US investors recovering from their Market losses? Just curious?

Posted by: Decoymaker at December 28, 2004 02:34 AM

1. Where will the dollar index end the year?
75
2. What will be the Price of Gold?
500
3. What will be the Price of Oil?
50/barrel
4. Where will the DOW end the year?
8500
5. Will the Yuan decouple from the Dollar in '05, YES or NO?
close, but not quite in '05

6. Do you see a major Economic Collapse in '05, YES or NO?
50/50 for '05, 75/25 by '06's end, 90/10 by '07's end


Posted by: Sarcastro at December 28, 2004 02:51 AM

Decoymaker - investment will flow into the U.S. because there is no other place for it to go. If China falls into chaos, no other market offers the combination of stability, opportunity, and legal safeguards. Yes, the U.S. has troubles and shortcomings, but sometimes in a leper colony, the man with three fingers is King!

Posted by: TJK at December 28, 2004 02:56 AM

1. Where will the dollar index end the year? .75....China will collapse and desperately attempt to devalue its currency to diffuse bad loans. Many other countries will enter the race to devalue. This will forestall the complete dollar collapse in 2005.

2. What will be the Price of Gold? $500... Commodity prices will collapse with the exception of precious metals, which have been artificially suppressed for years.

3. What will be the Price of Oil? $35... The China collapse and worldwide slackening of demand will have the Arabs competing to sell.

4. Where will the DOW end the year? 8500... It will drop lower this summer, but desperate governments will prevail a bit longer.

5. Will the Yuan decouple from the Dollar in '05, YES or NO? Yes... The rougher things get in China, the more desperate they will fight to keep the dollar peg...but market forces will prevail..!

6. Do you see a major Economic Collapse in '05, YES or NO? Not yet.... I still predict the depression will be in full force beginning 2008 to 2010. However, a very unsettling ride on the way there...!

Posted by: Russ Randall at December 28, 2004 03:07 AM

Hey, This is fun!

1. Where will the dollar index end the year?
I dunno.. but it will be 1.55 Euro per dollar
and 89 yen dollar. Hello inflation!

2. What will be the Price of Gold?
$515/oz

3. What will be the Price of Oil?

$20/barrel -- Oil glut.
Russia undercuts the Sauds, the Sauds responds and U.S. get cheap gas for those big 'ol tires...

4. Where will the DOW end the year?

Dow 12,000 -- folks still won't get it...

5. Will the Yuan decouple from the Dollar in '05, YES or NO?

YES -- but it won't help

6. Do you see a major Economic Collapse in '05, YES or NO?

No, but maybe a BOND market crash.

Then add any general statement about 2005 which you feel is key to the coming year. There is no doubt in my mind that 2005 will be an important year for all of us.

Higher interest rates, higher gold prices, Bond market turmoil and housing bubble starts to pop..

Posted by: Fidel Castro at December 28, 2004 05:11 AM

. Where will the dollar index end the year?
60 euro
2. What will be the Price of Gold?
,,,, $1000
3. What will be the Price of Oil? ,,,, $72
4. Where will the DOW end the year?,,, 5000
5. Will the Yuan decouple from the Dollar in '05, YES or NO? ,,,,,,, no
6. Do you see a major Economic Collapse in '05, YES or NO? ,,,,,, yes

Rich this is a great forum well done. As i wrote last year in this same format i think 2005 is the difficult year to put it mildly. So many vulnerabilities are developing and so many ponzi schemes are extenuated...
The trigger however i think will be some kind of major disaster. I think it could even be a major natural catastrophe and a man made one!!
EVen before this recent tsunami i always felt the US may get hit by one and California is way over due for some big shakers. It is possible that the sumatra earthquake could jolt a volcanoe into action too remember Pinatoba lowered the temperature worldwide by over one degree for a year. And this earthquake is in the region of Krakatoa which was heard around most of the world. For thirty years i have been studying predictions etc and never have i thought the next year was the one . Up till now/ Bin laden and his boys are really just a bunch of amateurs but give them time and we will have a devious enemy. Well enough time has passed. it took 11 years to catch the unibomber and then only because his brother turned him in. We have very little protection against such clandestine sabateurs.
If i was a terrorist i could think of countless simple things to do. Perhaps a mine or two in the suez canal at night by an oil tanker for starters. Or piracy at the same location. Sink a few ships there and supplies to Europe and the eastern starbourd will be wound down dramatically. The usa even with all its fiat currency and debt is a very strong and creative nation but mood swing sentiments are another animal and this is partly what caused the last depression. Based on the ripple on retail effect of 9/11 i think the next big one will have much more impact. My numbers are more extreme than most and if i am wrong then i transfer them to 2006. I dont see any new major wars next year but i see the lifestyle of the west pulling itself towards one. No matter how much it calls for peace. I see the derivatives market heading for a day of reckoning and that could be next year after some major disaster. I dont think derivative portfolios have players that can handle the extremes of disasters and this inself is a recipe for economic disaster.
Rich your website is one of the best on the web
trusting you have a wonderful year and deeply enjoy being the observer .
Amidst the crash of breaking worlds may you keep your peace and positive spirit.
All the best Nick Hodgson.

Posted by: NIck at December 28, 2004 06:45 AM

1. Where will the dollar index end the year?
1.75 Euro per dollar

2. What will be the Price of Gold?
suprisingly low at $575

3. What will be the Price of Oil?
also low at $55-$60 per bbl

4. Where will the DOW end the year?
between 10,000 and 11,000 (not much movement next year due to the effort of the PPT)

5. Will the Yuan decouple from the Dollar in '05, YES or NO?
YES - it will begin Apil 2005 with a 10% rise, then continue upward toward 40% rise as the end of 2007 nears.

6. Do you see a major Economic Collapse in '05, YES or NO?
No, not major, but a lot more people will begin to understand the weakness of the $.

Interest rates will begin their rise mid-2005 (upward another 5-7% by close 2006), OPEC et al will continue their movement away from the Petro-dollar. This sets the stage for 2006-2007 (when the collapse begins, although many won't understand what is happening until a few years later, when they can look back, draw a line in the sand and say "here marks the beginning of the end of the U.S. economy as we know it".

Easy money is over folks. Time for us to begin thinking again if we want to stay afloat and ahead of things.

Posted by: Guy Incognito at December 28, 2004 04:28 PM

1. Where will the dollar index end the year? .86

2. What will be the Price of Gold? $285

3. What will be the Price of Oil? $23

4. Where will the DOW end the year? 5,700

5. Will the Yuan decouple from the Dollar in '05, YES or NO? YES, 3 times

6. Do you see a major Economic Collapse in '05, YES or NO? YES, world-wide


I also see 10 year treasury interest rates at 6.50% during the year, which will support the dollar and undermine the Dow, especially the financials. China will devalue three times, with the peg rising to 10:1. Oil and Gold have seen their heyday for now, and will fall dramatically once the worldwide economy slows appreciably, most likely in March/April. The US will become the safe haven once again, but really will be the best of a sorry lot (of nations). Wouldn't be surprised to see a derivatives implosion that takes down a major bank or two in the US. Unemployment will hit 9% by year end. Real estate will come tumbling down, and personal bankruptcy's will soar. Other than this, it will be an uneventful year.

Posted by: Bearer of Bearish News at December 28, 2004 08:19 PM

1. Where will the dollar index end the year?
The dollar will be up by year end around 98
2. What will be the Price of Gold?
Should consolidate around 420 for awhile then resume its downtrend to 375 before an uptrend in 2006. I believe gold will continue to be attractive to many investors seeking safety in 10% of their wealth.
3. What will be the Price of Oil?
Price of oil has moved down to its 200 day moving average at $US 40 and I believe it will resume a more gradual uptrend and finish the year at $48
4. Where will the DOW end the year?
Commercials hold their most bearish position since 2000 and I expect that we would see the dow finishing around 7800.
5. Will the Yuan decouple from the Dollar in '05, YES or NO?
No, not yet
6. Do you see a major Economic Collapse in '05, YES or NO?
Onset of Deflationary pressures continue as the debt bubble starts to burst, but we won't see the big collapse next year. The US housing market should start to cool off. Rising interest rates combined with higher oil prices are really going to strain the economy and hurt business.

Posted by: S Raley at December 28, 2004 08:34 PM

To decoymaker

IAM not going to argue with you because I respect everyones feelings.I have to say also that I enjoy comments and replies that bring more attention to my comments. I knew before I posted my post,that there would be objections.Im just posting this so people can see this prediction before it comes to pass and therefore believe and have a chance to be saved when it comes to fruition. THE BOOK IS ENTITLED "NATIONAL SUNDAY LAW" WWW.AMAZINGFACTS.COM WWW.ELLENGWHITE.COM
WWW.FINALEVENTS.COM

SUNDAY LAW 2005 SUNDAY LAW 2005 SUNDAY LAW 2005

Posted by: mr.kuntz at December 28, 2004 09:38 PM

To Mr. Kuntz

I understand what you are saying sir. But what you don't know. Is that when I was in High School we used to talk about this National Sunday law all the time coming to a happening! Because of you radical fanatic religous nuts. You missed the point of my post entirely! What I was pointing out is the fact that you people live for this kind of stuff! "THE END" That's what's wrong with RELIGION these days. You people who lead their parrishes lead by FEAR and not HOPE! And I like to point out another thing! Why Sunday worship is a Occult manna onto the Christian following. God in genisius declared that his work was done on the last day, the 7th day and that was the day of REST! What is the last day of the week Mr. Kunzt? It is Saturday starting at the Sunset of Friday evening and ending the Sunset of Saturday. And I have'nt been brought up by a Jewish denominated Family and even I understand this fact! Why is it the Church still thinks it can play GOD and annoint unholy days to worship the Father of Creation? Our maker! Who is explicit in his commands? So if you believe sunday is the day of rest then you lead the aboration against men like the rest of the church does. Not anything I'd be Boasting about myself actually! Best regards, Decoymaker

Posted by: Decoymaker at December 28, 2004 10:50 PM

Hey folks.

A lot of great posts here, lets keep the predictions flowing and the religious debate to a minimum, as this isn't really the forum for it.

At the end of this blog I will synthesise the data and present the aggregrate view of 2005 for your viewing pleasure, as well as my own predictions.

Cheers Rich

Posted by: Rich Lancaster at December 28, 2004 11:12 PM

1. dollar,,, above 80,,, if that number doesn't hold,,no telling where it will bottom,,
2. gold above 550
3.oil between 45 and 55
4.Dow higher till spring,, then sliding till fall finish arround 500 points below where it closes this year.
5.no
6.no

the trends that are in place now, should continue, dollar holding above 80, gold rising, oil holding to slightly rising, and the dow in that gradual incline. The key in our future is of course China and the interest rates,, the deficits will not get better, and neither will debt levels of the average household. The dow will fool many people this year,, and people will get the second lesson on losing their shirts, after the previous "Nasdaq 101 course".I mean who hasn't heard that you cant lose any money investing in a year ending in 5. How much parked sideline money has already been poured in,and cant wait to get in. If I ever seen a game of 3 card monte, this has to be setting up to be the best yet. I agree with most that this year will be a hard one. I'd be keeping my investments rather quiet, and I'd be tuned out of the "bought and paid for point of view cnbc tv network" and others like it. Its places like these forums where we dig out the other opinions, and not just the stock hustlers, and promoters. Good luck and good health to all the people on this forum for the new year,,,

Posted by: Owl at December 29, 2004 01:34 AM

USDX .70
Gold $550
Oil $70
DJIA 9000
Beijing by the end of 2005 will begin to do the revalue in small steps
Major collapse, no

I figure the housing bubble will burst in 2005, and as a result the "wealth effect" will disappear
and consumer spending will crash. This will lessen the trade deficit enough so that Beijing can do the revaluation in small steps.

I do believe we will see a re-run of the 70s in this decade, but with no good ending as we are now a net debtor (~$2.9 trillion) nation.

I think a serious possibility is forex controls by year end, with "excess profits taxes" on energy and gold and silver miners. Never underestimate:

1) Boobus americanus (H.L. Mencken)ready to believe it is (choose one) 1) hoarders 2) speculators 3) greedy big oil and drug companies 4)whatever... are to blame for inflation

2) the ability of the goobermint and the controlled managed mass media to spin the news to the advantage of "The Powers That Be."

3) the willingness of the goooberment to use force to keep itself in power.

I suggest reading "The Creature From Jekyll Island" for an overview.

I expect at some point price controls and rationing for natgas, gasoline, diesel, and propane. Maybe not in 2005, but in this decade.

Tennessean

Posted by: Tennessean at December 29, 2004 03:00 AM

Dollar: 102 (up substantially from now)

Gold: 325 (gold bugs get burned)

Dow: 13,500 (we are still in the midst of a bubble..short sellers will be decimated)

10 yr. yield: 3.80% (flat yield curve)

Yuan decouple: not a chance. status quo is too profitable for everyone involved.

Economic collapse: no. just the opposite. employment gains are steady. commodities decline which takes the pressure off of inflation. much talk of goldilocks economy. Vix to break new lows. Wall Street gets an erection over Bush's social security reform.

Posted by: Jim G at December 29, 2004 03:36 AM

The U.S reinstitutes the draft - Iraqi resistance squashed, seizure of oil fields completed, oil pipelines secured.

As a result:

Dollar : 100

Oil : $25/barrel - Americans get more leverage on OPEC and force prices down.

Dow Jones : 11000

Last economic boom before the oil crash.

Enjoy it.

Posted by: Northern View at December 29, 2004 03:50 AM

1. $1.52/euro
2. $650/oz.
3. $60
4. 6500
5. No decoupling
6. Yes, collapse. Housing.

There will be a terr'ist event in the US which
allows a draft to occur. The US will go into
Syria and/or Iran. Consumer confidence will go
into the toilet. China and the US economies will
both go into recession, led by the US housing
market. Oil will still be expensive due to war
in the mideast.

Posted by: Doogie at December 29, 2004 06:48 AM

1. $Index...95
2. Gold...$400
3. Oil...$30
4. DOW...11,650
5. Yuan decouple in '05...No
6. Major Economic Collapse in '05...No

Posted by: FredBear at December 29, 2004 08:38 AM

I'll start with 6
I still bet on a huge economic crisis somewhere around the new US budget being voted. I say february.
I may be wrong, but I'll feel better to be wrong, rather than always postpone my prediction.

5 Of course this will mean the remnibi will decouple. In fact I see a huge revamping of the international monetary system, with reregulation of the banking system, control on capital flows and so on.

4 7800 for the dow.

3 Oil will be back to ? Let's not speak in dollars. It must be around 30 euros now. I suppose it will be around this level at the end of the year. Courtesy of fears over production levels compensated by expectations of reduction in demand (recession)

2 who cares ? This is just a commodity. Somewhere around what it is now.

1 somewhat lower. Say 20% lower than now.

Posted by: DF at December 29, 2004 02:35 PM

Greetings,
Based on the above predictions, how would you folks diversify a hypothetical portfolio of say $100,000.00? What would your strategy be to 'get out of the dollar'? I know there are some great creative thinkers in this group, and I think we could see some usual and unusual rationals.
Thanks-SD

Posted by: StanDiego at December 29, 2004 03:47 PM

I don't know where the dollar index will be, but I know where the dollar will be. Not in my wallet like it should be!

Price of gold, pretty much unchanged.

Price of oil, higher by %20-%25, and the quality of sweet crude will begin to decline.

Dow will be curled up comfortably by the fireplace in it's current over inflated state. Give it another 1000 points or so just to keep it sedated until it realized that it's food supply is about to be halved.

Can't comment on the Yuan.

Economic collapes in 2005, no, unless there are several more tectonic plate shifts and Manhattan is buried under twenty five feet of silt.

General Comments:

The thing about 7th Day Adentists or whatever... how can you claim any of the days of the week are the so called day of rest? God didn't create the sun and moon until what, that "4rd Day"? So let me ask you, how you define a "day"? That's right, the revolution of the Earth. Without the sun and moon, the Earth don't rotate! So what the hell are nutjobs babbling about? Just give it a rest already! You don't know what the hell you're talking about and never will. For all you know a day is a million years, or a microsecond. Why not just admit there are some questions that can't be answered and if even if they were you're life wouldn't change a bit so trying to figure them out is like trying to make a pig sing. It doesn't work and it annoys the pig.

Sheesh.

In my opinion, 2005 will bring much more conflict by wy of Iranian-Israeli skirmishes, which America and the coalition of the unwilling will find itself caught smack dab in the middle. Possible nuclear conflagration on either the west coast or east coast (probably west) of the U.S because nobody in the CIA bothered to follow up on a lead that a little known terrorist organization had bought nuclear plans disseminated by Pakistani bozo Dr. Abdul Qadeer Khan. This will spark a huge upsurge of military volunteerism, an invasion of another sovreign nation without solid evidence, and will further advance America into a neo-fascist capitalist aristocratic-military dictatorship. The economy will begin to burn a both ends but will be relatively stable because nobody else in the world is daring enough to call the bluff.

I predict in 2005 I will be free of minor debt and still a slave to major debt.

Mike Tyson will be arrested for murder.

Robert Blake will be convicted of murder.

Michael Jackson will be convicted of child abuse but receive only probation.

The Yankees will win the World Series but nobody will care.

President Yushchenko will be assassinated in a brutal way.

Russia will continue pounding Chechnya into rubble, and then start a second front in Kazakhstan and/or Georgia.

India and Pakistan will fight another small battle for Kashmir and then go back to being just mad at each other.

There will be another space disater, but I don't know in which country. This will further erode support for space exploration and lead to the gutting or possible abandonment of the ISS, much to the disappointment of people who actually give a damn about science and are fed up with religious dogma.

Posted by: Gumby at December 29, 2004 04:02 PM

1. Where will the dollar index end the year?
A. 10 euros to purchase a US dollar
2. What will be the Price of Gold?
A. 35.00 USD
3. What will be the Price of Oil?
A. 3.00 USD, Athabasca sands bring end to oil crisis, war
ends.
4. Where will the DOW end the year?
A. 1200
5. Will the Yuan decouple from the Dollar in '05, YES or NO?
A. Yes, trade ends with China, thankfully.
6. Do you see a major Economic Collapse in '05, YES or NO?
A. Yes, the dollar becomes a dollar again.

I can dream...

The Founding Fathers were Deists, not Christian. The did not believe in 'revealed religion'. Natural law and a natural God were the core of their beliefs, not some pie-in-the-sky God who rained down judgment on the unbelievers.

Posted by: Ron at December 29, 2004 05:13 PM

According with
Martin Armstrong's ECM cycle, phase II of Internet bubble burst will start at any time from summer 2005 with complete dollar collapse-as opposed to phase III of the crisis with baby bommers retirement
later this decade.
Political conflict growing in Middle East and Latin America

Posted by: carlos muniz at December 29, 2004 08:15 PM

Hey Rich glad you got this site up and posting again. Hope the new year is as good as the last....

Dollar Index: Down but in a slow and orderly fasion

GOLD: It will move in concert with the slowly devaluing dollar. Slowly up to 500, but working hard to break through

Oil: I might have to agree with the glut scenario, followed by 2006-07 as the final legs of oil. Oil will play in the 25-40 range all year.

DOW: People won't wake up next year either. Plays in the 9500-11000 range all year

CHINA: They will continue to placate us and out diplomacy us all of the globe. They will unpeg to keep us happy for now.

COLLAPSE: Not yet, or more to the point it will continue it's slow motion collapse, followed by a major crash sometime in the future(only God know that one).

PREDICTIONS:::: The President of Venezuala will die very early on this year. We won't allow China to gain access to Venezualian oil Period!!

Iraq will have claimed 3000 U.S. Servicemen and God only knows how many Iraq's. The newly "elected" Iraqi govenment will start to look like the bath'ist party of old. In exchange for quietly returning their country to the Thugs, Iraqi oil production by years end will be over 4mbpd and 6mbpd by the end of '06.

Enough for now.

Posted by: FeelingWeird at December 29, 2004 08:36 PM

More Predictions:

Ghawar will finaly die and the real reason for the invasion of Iraq will be made clear. This will happen either this year or very early next year. Ghawar is choking up something like 50-60% cut now and is in terminal decline. But, with Iraq under some semblance of "order", the 4-6 million loss of Ghawar will be made up with an extra 2-4mbpd gain from Iraq and the rest will come from Africa and Venezuala. This will be a Rubicon moment for the world. Because this will signal the peak of world oil production. We will be able to plateau oil for many years, but after Ghawar dies, global oil production will never rise above the year 2005... Mark my words..

Posted by: FeelingWeird at December 29, 2004 08:43 PM

You guys check out the US Govt. Fiscal Year 2004 statement yet? It's GAAP and discloses some seriously ugly things.

http://www.fms.treas.gov/fr/04frusg/04frusg.pdf

Posted by: Grizzly at December 29, 2004 08:46 PM

Grizzly,

Snow is pleased to report on the FY04 U.S. Financial Report, but I saw the same ugly that you did.

I stand by the predictions I made here earlier, with one small change. The Yuan will NOT unpeg and float free, it will just be moved 10% higher then re-pegged. The following year it will either be unpegged, or will snap because of Chinese fiscal/banking issues. Either way it,s the end of the 90's way of life.

StanDiego,

take your $100,000 and buy gold or silver (have it in your posession somewhere safe, not just certificates of ownership). Gold and silver are an excellent hedges. You won't lose anything doing this, and it'll get rid of your annually depreciating dollars.

Otherwise a very safe bet might be buying Swiss Francs (in a Swiss bank if you can gain access). Collect interest and have it converted to $ if you choose to stay in this country. I'm stil not sold on Euros.

Those are very safe places to keep money.

Posted by: Guy Incognito at December 29, 2004 09:55 PM

GI, yeah he's very pleased with a deficit that's over 30% of receipts but then again he doesn't call it a deficit.
The Govt. practically declares bankruptcy with this report, which is why it doesn't even hit the news. It took some serious digging to even find it. But it will end up with the creditors.
Bush has declared endless wars. Soon he will have to announce what he plans to use for money fighting those wars.

Posted by: Grizzly at December 29, 2004 10:54 PM

1. Where will the dollar index end the year?
68

2. What will be the Price of Gold?
520

3. What will be the Price of Oil?
65

4. Where will the DOW end the year?
12750

5. Will the Yuan decouple from the Dollar in '05, YES or NO?
yes

6. Do you see a major Economic Collapse in '05, YES or NO?
no

INFLATION-INFLATION-INFLATION. And then collapse in '06.

Posted by: Pooh at December 30, 2004 03:31 AM

You may want to review my predictions from last year and see how I did. http://www.depression2.tv/chronicles/canada.html

The dollar index will be 72
Gold will be $600.00
Oil will be $60.00
The Dow will rest at 7,200 Dec 2005
China will free the Yuan - Yes
Major Economic collapse Yes in China

My Predictions for 2005

China will invade North Korea (Nuclear Stock Pile)

Japan will experience volcanic eruptions (Mount Fuji)

China will march into the middle east to secure oil for its growing economy.

North America's eastern seaboard will experience more power outages. (No Terrorist involved)

A major earthquake will run from Ohio through to Rochester New York and Niagra Falls Canada. (Start of power outage)

Pope John Paul will rest with the saints and a new Pope from Asia will be elected.

President Bush will launch a new BBQ Sauce called "Stolen Heat".

There will be a huge accident with the missle defence shield and the International Space Station will be destroyed by accident.

Prince Charles will take the throne and dismiss Parliment and return England to a traditional Monarchy.

The Ark of the Covenant will be rediscovered in England where the Knights Templer hid it under Rosslyn Chapel.

California will experiance the worst drought in history and fires will engulf it.

Cranial telephone implants will be all the rage starting in Japan then the U.S.

The European Union will develop and field a new Humanitarian Army thus winning global approval.

Canada the United States and Mexico will introduce a new joint currency printed on hemp.

Have a happy and healthy 2005.


Posted by: Mark Aarssen at December 30, 2004 03:55 AM

#1. U.S.Dollar Index: 80-100
#2. Gold: $310-400/ oz.
#3. Oil: $ 25-35
#4. Dow 8000-10500
#5. Yuan? uncertain-butlikely no decouple,yet.
#6. Collapse? No

2005 will see persistent deflationary trend.
Most commodities poor bet. Neither gold nor oil will make sustained upward movements. Dollar rally due. Dow may continue modest upward momentum until Feb.+ 2005. U.S. Economy eroding, but no major collapse. Economic bottom due from mid-2006 to mid-2007.

lars.

Posted by: lars at December 30, 2004 04:17 AM

First I must say we americans are sorry to see so many people suffering because of the tidal Wave - earthquake and offer our condolences. we wish you good luck.

I do not think 2005 is when the 2nd GREAT DEPRESSION WILL START BUT SOON 2006-07,AND DEFINATELY BY 2008-10. ITS 200% GUARANTEED!!!

OK! #1 70 OR EVEN LESS GET READY FELLOW AMERICANS TO SEE GOODS AND SERVICES ,FOOD ETC TO GO UP IN PRICE!! EXCEPT YOUR PAYCHECK!

#2 GOLD DEFINATELY $500.00 MAYBE $600.00
DONT WORRY GOLD BUGS "WILL NOT LOSE" REMEMBER ITS THE ONLY REAL MONEY.
SILVER WILL INCREASE TO $10. DOLLARS AN OUNCE.
The poor mans gold- silver will rise because of many reasons. get them both if you can afford to "NOW" while theyre relatively cheap! remember our monopoly play money dollar is "COLLAPSING" WHETHER WE LIKE IT OR NOT .

#3 OIL WILL BE $60 TO $80 A BARREL BY END OF SUMMER 2005. 1 GALLON OF GASOLINE IN U.S.A. WILL BE $3.00 A GALLON. BOY AMERICANS ARE GOING TO FREAK OUT & THE PEOPLE OF THE WORLD WILL FINALLY "WAKE UP TO THE REALIZATION THAT THE WORLDS OIL IS A FINITE RESOURCE" AND THAT DEMAND IS SURPASSING SUPPLY. YOU WILL SEE YOUR NEIGHBORS SELLING THEIR CAR THAT IS NOT GAS EFFICIENT- (GAS HOG)OR 2ND 3RD CARS. IF THEY PASS THE KYOTO TREATY GET READY TOO FREEZE YOUR ASS OFF UNLESS YOU HAVE A WOOD STOVE OR ELECTRIC HEAT. THIS INCREASE IN TRANSPORTATION FUEL COSTS WILL "HURT THE ECONOMY BIGTIME" AND THE AIRLINES ALSO WORSE THAN LOST LUGGAGE AND COMPUTER MALFUNCTIONS . PEOPLE WILL TRAVEL LESS AND SPEND LESS HERD MENTALITY. 2005 WILL BE THE WAKE UP CALL BUT 2006 TO 2008 WILL BEGIN THE 2ND GREAT DEPRESSION.

#4 THE ASLEEP AMERICANS WILL UNFORTUNATELY NOT SELL THEIR STOCKS {AND BUY GOLD-FOOD,DOWNSIZE ETC} AT 10,500 AND BY OCT 2005 THE DOW WILL FALL TO 8000 TO 8500 AND BELOW 5000 IN 2006 TO 2008

#5 NO NOT YET THEYRE STILL HOOKED ON US BUYING THEIR STUFF! THATS THEIR ACE IN THE HOLE AND THEY WILL NOT PLAY IT YET. ONLY WHEN THE FIAT FRAUD DOLLAR STARTS TO COLLAPSE WHEN AMERICA HITS ITS DEBT CEILING "AGAIN" IN EARLY 2006 WILL THEY HAVE TOO . REMEMBER THEYRE COMMUNISTS AND THEYRE NOT TO BE TRUSTED. DO NOT BUY ANYTHING
" MADE IN CHINA BY COMMUNISTS" REMEMBER ITS AGAINST THE LAW TO GO TO CUBA OR NORTH KOREA OR TRADE WITH THEM SO WHY NOT COMMUNIST CHINA THEY MASSACRED THOUSANDS 1000'S OF CHINESE PEACEFULLY PROTESTING FOR "FREEDOM"!!! BOYCOTT MADE IN COMMIE CHINA PRODUCTS. YOUR OWN MONEY MAY SOMEDAY COME BACK TO HAUNT YOU AND KILL AMERICANS.

#6 2005 NO NOT YET, IN 2006 TO 2008 "YES" ITS 200% GUARANTEED! BETTER PREPARE FOR A 2ND GREAT DEPRESSION "MUCH WORSE THAN 1930'S DEPRESSION"

WHY GOSH THEYRE SO MANY REASONS BUT I HAVE TO POST THEM BECAUSE THERES STILL SOME UNINFORMED PEOPLE OUT THERE IN PREVIOUS POST THAT ARE STILL ASLEEP, ONLY HOPE FOR THE BEST SHEEPLE THAT BELIEVE THE LYING DEMOCRAT AND REPUBLICAN POLITICIANS AND THE BIASED LYING MEDIA LIKE CNN AND FOX NEWS. WELL IM A REALIST AND SORRY POLITICIANS FROM EITHER MAJOR PARTY OR MAJOR NEWS BROADCASTERS DONT PISS DOWN MY BACK AND TELL ME ITS RAINING! DAMN YOURE SUCH GOOD LIARS AND YOU WOULD MAKE GREAT ACTORS IN HOLLYWOOD.

#1 FIAT DOLLAR IS COLLAPSING AND HAS LOST 84% OF ITS VALUE SINCE 1964.
#2 THE NATIONAL DEBT IS $ALMOST $8 TRILLION AND RISING AND I WANT TO KNOW WHY DEBUNKERS THE SKYS THE LIMIT MENTALITY REFUSE TO RECOGNISE THE 2004 TREASURY REPORTS U.S.A. WILL OWE $44 TRILLION DOLLARS WHEN BABY BOOMERS RETIRE AND SOCIAL SECURITY AND MEDICARE COSTS WILL BANKRUPT AMERICA.
#3 INCREASED OIL COSTS AND ENERGY COSTS.
REMEMBER ENERGY MUST BE "CHEAP" FOR OUR SOCEIETY TO FLOURISH SURVIVE, AND CHEAP ENERGY IS AT AN END!!!!!!
#4 THE TRADE DEFICIT, WE OWE COUNTRIES WAY TOO MUCH!
#5 WAR IN IRAQ
#6 ANTITERRORISM COSTS ARE EXCESSIVE . SORRY BUT WERE SPENDING WAY TOO MUCH ESPECIALLY SINCE NOTHING HAS HAPPENED SINCE SEPT/11 OVER 3 YEARS AGO!! THE TERRORISTS CAN CRIPPLE U.S.A WITHOUT PUTTING 1 FOOT ON U.S.A. SOIL. THEY KNOW BLOWING UP OIL WELLS IN MIDDLE EAST IS OUR ACHILLES HEEL
PROOF THEY JUST THREW A PARTY IN HAWAII AND IT COULD HAVE BEEN DONE IN WASH,D.C. MUCH CHEAPER, LETS PARTY WITH TAXPAYERS MONEY YIPEE!!
#7 INTEREST PAYMENT ON NATIONAL DEBT WHAT A JOKE ITS ALMOST AS MUCH AS WE SPEND ON MILITARY FOR 1 YEAR.
#8 OFF BUDGET EXPENDATURES, TOP SECRET MILITARY COSTS, AND THE MONEY PIT-THE POST OFFICE ARE OFF BUDGET COSTS AS ARE MANY OTHER THINGS!
#9 DONT FORGET ACTS OF GOD , MOTHER NATURES RECENT HURRICANES COST U.S.A. DEARLY IN 2004.

#9 INCOMPETENT POLITICIANS IN CONGRESS AND THE WHITE HOUSE. BUSH HOW DARE HE CALL HIMSELF A CONSERVATIVE HE HAS SPENT MORE MONEY THAN ANY OTHER PRESIDENT IN HISTORY. CONSERVE MEANS SPEND "LESS" NOT MORE. DEMOCRATS CONGRESSMEN RECENTLY VOTED THEMSELVES A "PAY RAISE" WHEN MILLIONS OF AMERICANS HAVE LOST THEIR JOBS AFTER SEPT/11 AND WERE AT WAR IN IRAQ. THEYRE ALL OUT OF TOUCH 95%+ OF THEM ARE .
#10 OUR POLITICIANS KEEP RAISING THE NATIONAL DEBT CEILING LIKE ITS NO BIG DEAL TO BORROW $ BILLIONS AND BILLIONS OF DOLLARS . THEY DO NOT INTEND TO PAY IT BACK. FORTUNATELY OTHER NATIONS AREW NOTICING THAT FACT. ALMOST ALL WORLD CURRENCIES ARE WORTHLESS FIAT REDEEMABLE IN NOTHING BUT EMPTY PROMISES!!

SORRY BUT THE 2ND GREAT DEPRESSION IS 200% GUARANTEED TO HAPPEN AND SOON!!
2005 WILL BE THE WAKE UP CALL AND 2006 TO 2008 WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF THE DEPRESSION AND SINCE WE HAVE AMASSED GREAT AMOUNTS OF DEBT IT WILL LAST DECADES LONGER THAN 30'S DEPRESSION SORRY BUT THE TRUTH HURTS SOMETIMES. ONLY THE PREPARED WILL SURVIVE. GOOD LUCK!

Posted by: CAPTAIN FREEDOM at December 30, 2004 05:34 AM

#1. U.S.Dollar Index: 95-105 (time for rebound)
#2. Gold: $350-450/oz. (later on much higher)
#3. Oil: $ 10-15 (people will prior food)
#4. Dow: 600-1000 (stock market crash)
#5. Yuan: Chinese will not delink the yuan
#6. Collapse? Yes

Posted by: Magnus at December 30, 2004 07:51 AM

I will focus on other issues that will lead to the collapse. Indian Auto Mechanics with full certifications start arriving. Big name chains start dumping Americans. Public will find it very had to believe that 'qualified' Americans cannot be found.

Bush, gets language in a defense supplemental to fast track U.S. Citizenship for Mexicans that serve 4 years in the military in attempt to avoid instituting the draft. Additional language to start the destruction of SSI.

Feb 05 – Start of the decline.
Mar 05 – bouncing around, lack of direction
Apr 05 – Tipping point
May 05 – Terrorist incident, Osama says it was not his group but welcomes their actions.
Jun 05 – Speculation US group behind act, correct.
Jul 05 – Housing starts showing big cracks.
Aug05- Consumers start failing big
Sep05 – Cheney health issue, Jeb ready
Oct05 – Iraq/Mena really blows up like 68, zips in the wire
Nov 05 – St Helens goes
Dec 05 – Consumer dead, even Christian groups question if god has stop supporting bush
Jan 06 – Market off 37%
Gold same (seems to be a lot gold available)
Dollar in the dirt 26

Posted by: Bob at December 30, 2004 03:11 PM

Would someone like to read my predictitions again?

Venezuela And China
Sign Oil Deal
BBC News
12-30-4

Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez has offered China wide-ranging access to the country's oil reserves.

The offer, made as part of a trade deal between the two countries, will allow China to operate oil fields in Venezuela and invest in new refineries.

Venezuela has also offered to supply 120,000 barrels of fuel oil a month to China.

Venezuela - the world's fifth largest oil exporter - sells about 60% of its output to the United States.

Mr Chavez's administration, which has a strained relationship with the US, is trying to diversify sales to reduce its dependence on its largest export market.

Thirsty for oil

China's quick-growing economy's need for oil has contributed to record-high oil prices this year, along with political unrest in the Middle East and supply bottlenecks. Oil prices are finishing the year roughly 30% higher than they were in January 2004.

In 2004, according to forecasts from the Ministry of Commerce, China's oil imports will be 110m tons, up 21% on the previous year.

China has been a net importer of oil since the mid 1990's with more than a third of the oil and gas it consumes coming from abroad.

A lack of sufficient domestic production and the need to lessen its dependence on imports from the Middle East has meant that China is looking to invest in other potential markets such as Latin America.

Mr Chavez, who is visiting China, said his country would put its many of its oil facilities at the disposal of China.

Chinese firms would be allowed to operate 15 mature oil fields in the east of Venezuela, which could produce more than one billion barrels, he confirmed.

The two countries will also continue a joint venture agreement to produce stocks of the boiler fuel orimulsion.

Mr Chavez has also invited Chinese firms to bid for gas exploration contracts which his government will offer next year in the western Gulf of Venezuela.

The two countries also signed a number of other agreements covering other industries including mining. Story from BBC NEWS:

© BBC MMIV

http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/1/hi/business/4123465.stm


Posted by: Decoymaker at December 30, 2004 04:01 PM

I'd like to make 1 more prediction !

The World decouples from the US Dollar.
Euro becomes NEW standing preference for standard.
Go ahead and Laugh! No bombs or military can make people use something they just don't want anymore. Thank your US Government!

Posted by: Decoymaker at December 30, 2004 04:15 PM

too much gloom and doom. I say cheer up, things could be worse. So I cheered up and sure enough, things got worse.

Auxillary inputs, i.e. oil, machinery that runs on oil, fertilizers and herbicides have taken the world's agriculture into new territory. Never before could mankind do so much with the land. As long as farmers will work to provide the foodstuffs we need, it is a garauntee that we will survive.

The US economy is no slouch, regardless of the political pitfalls.

The Romans had stellar engineering feats themselves, only to be stricken with a political system that did itself in. Lots of bread and circus in the waning days of the Roman Empire. All good things must come to an end. With a little luck, and some prudent choices, the American Republic will avert such a fate.

We'll have to rid ourselves of the current crop of 'politicians', though, or it might all go to hell in a handbasket. Getting out of Iraq is the first priority. The US is in a real pickle over there.

There are enough illness, disease and natural disasters to make life a challenge. War can be avoided. Had we given Each Iraqi a check for 500 bucks, it would have won a lot of hearts and minds.

Posted by: Ron at December 30, 2004 04:22 PM

Great Post ........Ron! Yeah! I Remember when Farming was fun ! But how does the Market expect a guy to pay for his equipment when he's only making $5 an hour? And these corporate farms? A BIG, BIG MESS! They have spread more Cow manure over 1 acre of american countryside than any farmer ever did before 1960! You want NEW diseases? There's where they'll start! On top of everything else. sighhh! But I'm a gonna keep a stiff upper Lip !

Posted by: Decoymaker at December 30, 2004 11:13 PM

Next Year:
US Dollar .65 Canadian Dollar .90
Gold over $800 US an ounce
Oil $65
Dow 1750
Yuan will decouple yes
Major Economic Collapse in 2005 NO
but in 2006 yes
Real Estate Bubble Collapse begins
Double interest rates; more unemployment; more foreclosures; loss of health care

Posted by: Dan at December 31, 2004 07:17 AM

Hey folks.

Here is a rough synopsis of your Predictions for 2005, so far. I created a little spreadsheet, threw out stuff that didn't make sense and collected the good stuff. Clearly we have bears and bulls here, which is a great balance - some folks see a great year for the markets and plenty of stability while others see a global collapse - - most see something like the continuance of business as usual. Here's the stuff - Ending 2005:

1. US Dollar Index: 65
2. Price of Gold: $504 [seems low if USD goes to 65]
3. Price of Oil: $77
4. DOW: 7,953
5. Yuan Decoupling: NO
6. Economic Collapse: NO

This is great stuff folks, it's very interesting to get disparate views and incites from around the world. Whatever happens I'm convinced 2005 will be another record breaking year on many fronts.

Keep the posts coming, and have a great New Year's Eve [if you are on the Gregorian Calendar!]

Cheers Rich

Posted by: Rich Lancaster at December 31, 2004 08:51 PM

OCT 29, 1929 - 56 DAY CRASH
US TOTAL DECLINE 89.5%

SOLAR ECLIPSE HAPPENS NOV 1929
LUNAR ECLIPSE HAPPENS NOV 1929

OCT 20, 1987 - 55 DAY CRASH
US TOTAL DECLINE 41%

LUNAR ECLIPSE HAPPENS SEP 1987
SOLAR ECLIPSE HAPPENS OCT 1987

STARTING JAN 1990 - JAPAN CRASH
JAPAN TOTAL DECLINE 64%

SOLAR ECLIPSE HAPPENS JAN 1990
LUNAR ECLIPSE HAPPENS FEB 1990

JUL 20 TO OCT 8, 1998 - SMALL US CRASH

SOLAR ECLIPSE HAPPENS AUG, 1998
LUNAR ECLIPSE HAPPENS AUG, 1998

NEXT BIG CRASH I PREDICT:

AROUND 2006 MARCH 14 NEXT LARGE SOLAR ECLIPSE
HOLD ON...........

HAPPY NEW YEAR EVERYONE!

Posted by: COMING CRASH at January 1, 2005 01:26 AM

I would like to add to my forecast, the start of the dollar and Dow collapse from the summer onwards,is preceded by bond collapse and leading indices moving in opposite direction.
The Internet crisis cannot finish before summer 2006 or possibly summer 2008-best case scenarios-

Posted by: carlos muniz at January 1, 2005 01:41 AM

1-around 50-60 2-550-650 3-50-60 4-9000 5-don't have a clue 6-not yet.Greenspan and the boys will continue their juggling act until someone or something throws in one too many balls.He,ll continue inching up the interest rate and watching just like he,s been doing. I can see him now...well so far so good,lets goose her another 1/4%and see what she does.If the economy doesn't come apart we'll ride er for awhile an give er another 1/4.just don't rock the boat. so far it is working,well kinda sorta.as long as everything keeps rolling along they can all say "so far so good"kinda reminds me of the fellow who fell off a 40 story building, as he went past the 5th floor a guy hollered out his window"how ya doin" he hollered back "so far so good" THE ENTIRE ECONOMY IS JUST LIKE THIS! The masses have been lulled into complacency or outright denial. Hurricane Andrew jolted the insurance industry severely,the savings and loan scandal prompted the gov't to respond...IMMEDIATELY! gee,I wonder why? maybe because the less than $10 for every $1000 FDIC fund wouldn't cover the losses could start a panic? Nah,couldn't be. Those gov't boys were just being nice guys huh. 9/11 prompted a spending spree no other president even came close to. that quake in the indian ocean had it occurred in california could easily have been the catalyst for a full scale depression. This isn't an if, it's a when. another terrorist attack? wouldn't have to be al quada...another timothy mcveigh? We can't fund the military we have now. we can't fund the schools, we sure as hell won't be able to sustain social security! the way our "servant"gov't has managed our money sinse 1913 (particularily since 1964) We'd be better off had they bought lottery tickets. the housing bubble won't break...yet. it needs a triggering device.(higher interest rates ought to do it) even then it will be spotty. The densely populated areas first as well as the suburbs and small towns with one main employer or lots of commuters. the more rural areas as well as much of the midwest should be relatively unscathed perhaps even experiencing a modest boom as early homesellers cut their losses and "head for the hills" so to speak.wonder what they'll use for money? In any event the next few years ought to be real interesting

Posted by: felzke440 at January 1, 2005 07:19 AM

1. Dollar will go to 1.50-1.60 to the Euro and then bounce back to 1.15 as their economy faulters.

2. Gold will increase to $500 due to world demand.

3. Oil will be $50-60.

4. Dow will fall to 7100 as interest rates begin to rise.

5. No.

6. No.


Interest rates will continue to churn upward as rapidly as they have fallen due to inflation in basic food and energy, as well as the unloading of dollar reserves by Asian Countries. Additional demand for grain by China will also contribute to this inflation. This will continue until there is deflationary pressure. Real estate will fall by 40-60% due to the higher cap rates as a result of the increases in inflation and interest rates.

Posted by: fred at January 3, 2005 01:56 AM


I predict GOD will declare Bankruptcy on
his credit cards.

Posted by: Robert Herron at January 3, 2005 04:41 AM

C'mon Robert, we all know God doesn't need credit - he is the only entity in the Universe with more power (and ability to create money, fiat or otherwise) than the Federal Reserve.

Of course, no one in the Fed will admit to that!

Cheers Rich

Posted by: Rich Lancaster at January 3, 2005 06:38 AM

1. Where will the dollar index end the year?
At 65.

2. What will be the Price of Gold?
$650+

3. What will be the Price of Oil?
$65

4. Where will the DOW end the year?
7,000

5. Will the Yuan decouple from the Dollar in '05, YES or NO?
No.

6. Do you see a major Economic Collapse in '05, YES or NO?
Yes


All kinds of economic turmoil will be unleashed on the markets in 2005, too many to list here! Click on my link for more details, I post daily on my msg. board and offer market commentary daily!

Posted by: Shaun at January 3, 2005 07:32 AM

only minor bad news.the big unraveling occures in the years 2008-2012

Posted by: gregory davis at January 4, 2005 12:27 AM

OK THINK FOR YOURSELF! LOOK AT THE 2ND GREAT DEPRESSION 2 YEAR TIMELINE PREDICTIONS! YOU CAN SEE THEM DATED AS EARLY AS 2006 AND MOST PREDICTED DEFINATELY BY 2008 TO 2010.!!!

SO YOU DO THE MATH! CAN YOU PICTURE WHAT YOU NEED TO DO TO PREPARE BEFORE DEPRESSION 2 GETS GOING FULL SWING. HOW MUCH TIME DO YOU HAVE TO PREPARE????

WELL IF ITS 2006 YOU HAVE "1 YEAR" TO PREPARE AND IF ITS "2008 YOU HAVE 3 YEARS". YOU KNOW THE PHRASE HOW TIME FLYS AND THE OLDER YOU GET THE FASTER TIME SEEMS TO GO BY!WHAT IM TRYING TO POINT OUT IS YOU - WE HAVE VERY LITTLE TIME TO PREPARE.

DO NOT PROCRASTINATE REMEMBER THE GRASSHOPPER AND THE ANT! THE BIBLE EVEN TELLS US THAT PEOPLE NEED TO STORE FOOD AND WATER FOR TIMES OF DROUGHT AND FAMINE. PEOPLE THAT PREPARE WILL BE BETTER OFF THAN THOSE THAT DONT. AMERICANS USED TO SAVE IN SAVINGS ACCOUNTS 10% OR MORE TODAY ITS 1% OR LESS. I DO FEEL THE COLLAPSING DEVALUING DOLLAR IS PARTLY TO BLAME FOR THAT. LETS FACE IT THINGS COST SOOOO MUCH MORE TODAY THAT AVERAGE AMERICANS CANNOT SAVE BECAUSE THE EXTRA PAYS THE INCREASED COSTS BECAUSE OUR CURRENCY IS A WORTHLESS JOKE. EASY CREDIT , CREDIT CARDS , AND SPEND , SPEND ,
SPEND MENTALITY TODAY IS ADDICTIVE, BUY NOW ,AND PAY LATER???? PEOPLE DO NOT NEED CELL PHONES TO SURVIVE, OR DVD, VCR PLAYERS OR 2ND CARS OR HUGE HOMES WITH MASSIVE MORTGAGES, 10 CREDIT CARDS OR MORE, BROADBAND INTERNETS HIGHER COST VS MODEM .WE DONT NEED COMPUTERS AT LEAST NOT ALLWAYS THE LATEST , NO SATELLITE OR CABLE T/V, ANYWAY THERE ARE LOTS OF THINGS WE CAN DO WITHOUT.

HOW MUCH DO YOU NEED TO ACTUALLY SURVIVE EACH MONTH IN DOLLARS BARE MINIMUM ??????

DURING THE GREAT DEPRESSION SOME TOWNS HAD 50% UNEMPLOYMENT. I DO RECOMMEND YOU DOWNSIZE IF YOURE NOT SURE YOUR JOB WILL BE LOST GONE WHEN THE 2ND GREAT DEPRESSION STARTS IN 3 YEARS OR LESS. THINK !! THINK !! THINK!! ARE YOU PREPARED?? AT LEAST WERE INFORMED AND KNOW WHATS COMING, THINK JUST HOW MANY WORLD CITIZENS ARE ASLEEP TO WHATS COMING . LOOTING AND RIOTS DO OCCUR IN AMERICA EX: LA RIOTS , HURRICANE ANDREW, RIOTS AFTER BALLGAMES {IDIOTS} WHEN PEOPLE GET HUNGRY THEY CAN GET MEAN. REMEMBER GOVT WILL NOT BE ABLE TO SAVE OR FEED YOU BECAUSE THEY WILL BE BROKE! OUR MEDIUM OF EXCHANGE, OUR CURRENCY THE PAPER DOLLAR IS BACKED NOT BY GOLD ANYMORE, NO! NOW ITS BACKED BY A BANKRUPT GOVT, A LIE AND ITS REDEEMABLE IN NOTHING!

3 YEARS THATS ALL THE TIME WEVE GOT LEFT.

OH YHEA OUR OUT OF TOUCH GOVT DEPT OF HOMELAND SECURITY WITH THE LEAVING TOM RIDGE RECENTLY HAD A WORLD MEETING IN HAWAII THAT COST MILLIONS .IT WAS ON T/V THAT THE FOREIGN DIPLOMATS WERE MOSTLY EMBASSY OFFICIALS SO THE MEETING COULD {SHOULD} HAVE TAKEN PLACE IN WASH. DC. MUCH CHEAPER. SO THE TAXPAYER PAID FOR OUR OFFICIALS TO PARTY IN HAWAII????? FOR NO GOOD REASON. OUR GOVT. WILL OVERSPEND THIS REPUBLIC INTO BANKRUPTCY. GOOD LUCK! BETTER PREPARE!

Posted by: CAPTAIN FREEDOM at January 4, 2005 08:45 AM

Hey Captain Freedom, you don't need to yell, those who need yelling aren't listening and never will.

US dollar in the toilet, gold outta sight literally, china devalued in turmoil - less than one percent have everything -rest have nothing ...not just in china but globally
oil cheap in the US for Wartime companies, rationed for the common joe, another CIA terr'ist event on US soil, the US will stupidly antagonize Iran and that we know will end badly... The rest of the world will close borders to rich american bandits trying to escape the mess they have made.... they ought to be left to the masses and the justice they deserve when the American experiment fails gloriously. But this is not the age of amerika or of china or of any other nation ....this is the age of the microbe and The big news will be a flu monster that eats rich and poor alike in numbers that stagger.

Just too bad the example of Ukraine was lost on Amerikans

Posted by: cKraZ at January 4, 2005 05:27 PM

Yeah and this lost and wasted energy! LOL!
Because when all is said and done here. It doesn't change the fact that the National Banks are deep in doggy doo doo, in the deriavitives market. Oh in other words. Legalized Gambling with Free money made out of thin air by a credit logging in a BOOK! OH BOY! And the american economy can depend on a bunch of swindlers to act fairly to Honest sdmall time investers in the market,especially small Businesses. HAH! And all this still doesn't CHANGE the fact that our currency is still UNCONSTITUTIONAL and is controlled by a Private interest(FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS) A PRIVATE INSTITUION), and not by the elected representation of this country. But by a Bunch of servants to International Foreign obligations that Manipulate the Market and US RUBBER Dollar to the whims of a Few market whores in the International Status Quo community!! This is TOOOOOOOOO FUNNY! And what alot of people donot understand is that at anytime, ANYTIME the UN wants to stop sending everyone a SSI check they could do it in a second! Because YOPU're SSI, Your Money, and Your government,OUR so called elected Treasonous commorades who stiil allow UN UNCONSTITUIONAL powers to eminate in our country threw threw POLICY making threw the wonderous CFR and IMF banking liars club! And these Bankers under which americans live could come for their HOMES at any time in the near future and the Banks could call your loan on DEMAND! Which means you have to Pay it when they want it if they want too! You Wanna Bet I know what I'm talking about folks? And you watch! The Dollar will all of a sudden......Come back but it won't buy anything for the common people! They'll suffer under Hyper-Inflation! Oh NO! But Government interference will sure help the Marketeres. Just like it always has! YEAHHHHHHHH!

Posted by: Decoymaker at January 5, 2005 12:31 AM

It'll be called, " The Great Foreclosure"

The U.N. Monthly Chronicle reported the following in May 1974, "We, the members of the U.N . . . Solemnly proclaim our united determination to work urgently for the establishment of a new international economic order."

Kurk Koch, Ph. D., said, "The system will be made up of a single currency, single centrally financed government, single tax system, single political system, single world court of justice, and single head [one individual leader] . . . Each person will have a registered number, without which he will not be allowed to buy or sell; . . . Anyone who refuses to take part in this universal system will have no right to exist." (When Your Money Fails, by Mary Relfe)

Naturally the ONE-WORLD Government envisioned by the MONEY CHANGERS will require a ONE-WORLD Currency. But with the U.S. dollar, the German mark, the Swiss franc, the English pound, and Japanese yen etc. all being different in value. They must come up with a way to make all currency equal in value. The easiest and surest way is to collapse the world economy and make all the currency's worthless. If you think it will not happen, you really have a rude awakening coming. When the day the great foreclosure becomes a reality, on that day all possessions - your home, car, the family farm, and all property will become the property of the MONEY-CHANGERS. If you don't believe me, let me quote this from the March 9, 1933 Congressional Record, ". . . The money is issued to the banks in return for Government obligations, bills of exchange, drafts, notes, trade acceptances, and banker's acceptances. The money will be worth 100 cents on the dollar, because it is backed by the credit of the nation. It will represent a mortgage on all homes and other property of all the people in the nation." That includes you too!

If you are still not convinced, in Senate Document No. 43, we find this startling truth, "The ultimate ownership of all property is in the State; individual so-called 'ownership' is by virtue of government, i.e., law, amounting to mere user; and must be in accordance with law and subordinate to the necessities of the State." And you thought once you paid off the mortgage on your home that it belonged to you. The government has other plans for your property. They plan on giving it the MONEY-CHANGERS when they foreclose on the national debt and set-up their ONE-World Dictatorship. The foreclosure could happen as easily as the MONEY-CHANGERS simply refusing to renew Treasury Notes, bonds, etc. and calling in loans. Oh by the way, most of your loans and mortgages are "payable upon demand."

Former Secretary of Treasury, George Humphrey declared, "We are on the verge of something that will curl a man's hair to think about it. It will make the depression of the 1930's look like rip roaring prosperity."

Former Labor Secretary Ray Marshall said, "All signs are that we are in for a depression."

Leon Kendall, President of the Mortgage Guaranty Insurance Corporation warned, "The name of the game for those of us, is kind of a survival economics."

Dr. France Pic proclaimed, "There is going to be an economic crash that will affect all currency and will happen over night."

Former Chief of West Germany's Central Bank, Otto Emminger had this to say, "The whole structure could, like Humpty Dumpty, have a great fall."

The Reverend Billy Graham gave us this solemn warning, "We are poised on the brink of disaster. Our everyday headlines seems to suggest that our world is hurtling out of control."

Former California Governor Jerry Brown declared, "We are headed for WW III probably preceded by a world depression. Currently the U.S. is an island of influence in a sinking sea of despair without any hope."

Former IRS official Coleman Andrews said, "I defy man or devil to say that the dollar can survive more than a few years."

On July 22, 1991 Sir James Goldsmith proclaimed, "I think 1987 was a seismic warning . . . The White House estimates on the federal deficits and economic growth are to optimistic. Financial chaos is coming."

John Exter, former New York Fed and Citicorp Executive confessed, "The present worldwide fiat paper money system is going to break down. We are headed for the worst economic catastrophe in all history . . . On a scale never before seen in all history."

The GREAT FORECLOSURE on loans and acquisition of collateral wealth will complete the enslavement of the victims. When the day our nation's bankruptcy becomes a fact, on that day, all your possessions - your home, your farm, your savings accounts, your bonds and everything of value will be confiscated and will become the property of the owners of the Federal Reserve Banking System.

Senator Carter Glass remarked, "I never thought the Federal Reserve System would prove such a failure. The country is in a state of irreversible bankruptcy."

The Dallas Federal Reserve Bank said, "The U.S. government has violated the principles of long-run fiscal solvency . . . and is headed for insolvency." (Los Angeles Times 12/28/92)

And less than 3 months later Representative Traficant (Ohio) confessed, "Mr Speaker, we are now in chapter 11. Members of Congress are official trustees presiding over the greatest reorganization of any bankrupt entity in world history, the U.S. Government. We are setting forth hopefully a blueprint for our future. There are some who say it is a coroner's report that will lead to our demise." (Congressional Record, Vol. 139, No. 33, March 17, 1993) They simply cannot hide the facts from the people much longer. Eventually, it will be headline news. Perhaps the headline will read, "THE HOUSE OF CARDS HAS FALLEN"

Naturally, in order to have a ONE-WORLD GOVERNMENT the world will need a ONE-WORLD CURRENCY. Unfortunately, the coming world depression will make the GREAT DEPRESSION look like a Sunday picnic. When the financial collapse becomes a reality, I believe the people will turn to government for a solution to the economic mess they have fallen into. Naturally, the MONEY-CHANGERS through their agents (government politicians) will appear on the scene riding a white horse, and will offer a solution to save the people. Here is Part I of their solution for a new monetary system as published by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve, Washington, D.C.

"Alice In Debitland"

"It's 1982. Alice has pushed through the revolving door of a department store and selected several items. Reaching into her wallet, she pulls out a debit card with such beautifully printed letters it seems to say "USE ME." She has already adjusted easily to the change credit cards have made to her life. So Alice reasoned, "If a credit card postpones payments, then a debit card probably speeds it up. It's sure to make some change in the size of my bank account and either way I will have my purchases." Alice hands her debitcard to the clerk who inserts it into the computer terminal. At the press of a button, electronic impulses fly to the Wonderland Bank where Alice keeps her checking account. Automatically and instantaneously, funds are transferred from her account to the merchants.

Alice's debitcard is just one way to use the electronic funds transfer system that effects payment by substituting an electronic signal for cash or checks. Are we headed for a "cashless and checkless" society? Although the EFT Act provides that your employer or government agency can require you to receive your salary or a government benefit check by electronic funds transfer, you have the right to choose the financial institution at which you will receive the funds."

Art Bushkin, a official of the Commerce Department, declared the Electronic Funds Transfer System would be a, "means of massive surveillance of the population." (Chicago Tribune Aug. 2, 1979)

John Reynolds, former President of the Interbank Card Association professed, "We have to begin to reduce the amount of paper [money] that is passing back and forth. Total EFT [Electronic Funds Transfer] is really just around the corner." (The New Money System, by Mary Relfe)

"If there is just one card . . . it will be issued by the government." (Business Week, April 18, 1977) Doesn't it make you wonder what the "National Health Card" is really all about?

Martin Anderson, of the Hoover Research Institute summed it up this way, "Unless this move to force a national identity card on Americans is stopped quickly, we may live to see the end of privacy in the United States. All of us will be tagged like so many fish." (San Jose Mercury News, April 7, 1993)

Pat Robertson gave this version, "Under a checkless/cashless society it would be possible to tax the wealth stored in computers under law, or given a dictorial environment to freeze the accumulated wealth of any individual or any class of individuals just by simple instructions to a computer." ("The New World Order It Will Change The Way You Live")

Zbigniew Brezhinsky, National Security Advisor to President Jimmy Carter, said, "Soon it will be possible to assert almost continuous surveillance over every citizen and maintain up-to-date complete files containing even the most personal information about the citizen. These files will be subject to instantaneous retrieval by the authorities."

Marc Rotenberg, director of the Electronic Privacy Information Center, said in USA Today (7/14/94) that, "It will become a way to monitor people, like an internal passport."

William Murray, an information system security consultant said recently in the Digital Media (5/94) entitled "Ever Feel You're Being Watched? You Will": "There won't be anything you do in business that won't be collected and analyzed by the government. This National Information infrastructure is a better surveillance mechanism than Orwell or the government could have imagined. This thing is so pervasive and the propensity to connect it is so great that it is unstoppable . . .

Most of this shift in privacy is apparently being done by executive order at the initiative of the bureaucracy and without Congressional oversight or concurrence. You know, Orwell said that the bureaucrats, simply doing what bureaucrats do, without motive or intent, will use technology to enslave the people."

On February 14, 1994 AT&T Smart Card declared to the NACCU (National Assc of Campus Card Users): "The CASHLESS SOCIETY has been talked about in the past and the next 6 years should bring dramatic new developments these dreams a reality . . . The AT&T contacless Smart Card is a secure portable computer the size and thickness of a credit card . . . The Smart Card forum evolved from an ongoing worldwide interest in using smart cards for payment, transit, telecommunications, health care and identification (NATIONAL HEALTH CARE CARD?) and security application . . . Each and every transaction can be recorded electronically and stored. Journal tapes can also provide a hard copy audit trail when necessary. Information can be added to or erased from the card at each point of purchase terminal."

The SmartCard comes complete with a Radio Frequency Transponder. Could this RFT allow the government to track their unsuspecting slaves?

According to the Feb 7, 1994 issue of WE WM MbI, the first independent Russian-American newspaper, the debitcard has already arrived in Russia. "The modern Sequoia 400 computer system, which can operate without interruption for 50 years and has a data base capable of storing up to 25 million customer files, was bought in the West for the Olibi card."

The article goes on to say, "But the benefits of shopping at former hard-currency stores is not the main incentive to obtain a card. The fact a card saves its owner from carrying around a stuffed wallet and lowers the risk of being mugged is more important."

"And he [SATAN; the ADVERSARY] provides that no one should be able to buy or to sell, except the one who has the mark, either the name of the beast or the number of his name." (Revelation 13:17)

As I said, the SMARTCARD is Part I of their solution, but Part II is their final plan to "brand" their livestock. I am speaking of a computer chip about the size of a grain of rice that can be injected under the skin with a hypodermic needle. This computer chip is currently being introduced into society as an I.D. system for animals. "Using a scanner can retrieve the information on the computer chip and the lost pet can be reunited with its owner." (Los Angeles Daily News, November 9, 1991)

On October 4, 1993, the Washington Times reported, "There is an identification system made by Hughes Aircraft Company that unlike your National ID Card, you cannot lose. It's the syringe-implantable transponder. According to promotional literature, 'it is an ingenious, safe, inexpensive, foolproof and permanent method of . . . identification, using radio waves' . . . It is so designed as to be injected simultaneously with a vaccination, or alone . . . [Editor's Note: I wonder how many men, women and children have already received their microchip when they got their flu shot?]

This tiny microchip transponder is sort of like a technological tattoo, and far more effective than the numbers the Nazis marked indelibly on the arms of concentration camp victims . . . There is no difference in principle between being forced to carry a microchip in a plastic ID card in your wallet or in a little transponder pellet injected in your hand. The principle that Big Brother has the right to track you is inherent in both. The only thing that differentiates the two techniques is a layer of your skin"

Tim Willard, executive officer of the World Future Society, is quoted in 1989 as saying, "The technology behind such a biochip implant is fairly uncomplicated and with a little refinement, could be used in a variety of human applications . . .

Conceivably, a number could be assigned at birth and follow that person throughout life. Most likely, it would be implanted on the back of the right or left hand so that it would be easy to scan at stores. Then you would simply scan your hand to automatically debit your banking account . . .

This biochip could also be used as a universal type identification card that would replace all credit cards, passports and that sort of thing. It could also become our medical care ID chip."

These madmen that seek to over-throw the world lay out their plans and propaganda years in advance. I believe because of the ever increasing number of missing children, this same I.D. computer chip will be eventually introduced into society for human I.D. and their Smartcard all wrapped up into one, complete with a RFT tracking device. After all, if you were a sheep herder wouldn't you want to know where your sheep are at, at all times?

Constitutional lawyer Warren Jefferson Davis, in his book, "Law of the Land" said, "The thoroughly corrupt plan to subvert the Constitution from within has been exposed, but it remains for the people to take back the republic from the alien hands and ideologies into which it has fallen and reconstruct it and confine it within the limits of the Constitution."

The sad part is, Americans have become like the priest who saw a man half beaten and half dead on the side of the road and, the priest passed by on the other side of the road. (Luke 10:30-31) We cannot continue to turn our heads and pretend the world and our children have not become victims of crimes being perpetrated by the OPPRESSOR, or we will face the harsh consequences of our inaction.

WAKE UP AMERICA!!!!!


Posted by: Decoymaker at January 5, 2005 12:42 AM

Decoymaker...you are talking to a dead horse dude

Posted by: Xc at January 5, 2005 01:27 AM

Hey Xc ! I know! But at least I can say I tried.
Sigh~ LOL!

Posted by: Decoymaker at January 5, 2005 02:01 PM

I seen Osama Bin Laden yesterday!........................Yeah! Him and George were going for a Burger at MCcy D's

Posted by: decoymaker at January 5, 2005 02:04 PM

Please made financial and economic forecast, instead of apocalliptical-religious forecast

Posted by: carlos muniz at January 5, 2005 04:26 PM

Hey Decoy:

Do you really believe a few hundred million screaming hungry, broke, abused red-necks with shotguns and pitch-forks would accept all of that?

Take a trip to Montana, Wyoming or the deep south. Really any of GW's red states. Sit down at a tavern, have a beer and mention anyone of your talking points and see the reaction you get. Little guys can only be pushed so far and as the song goes, "a Country Boy can survive"

So while some of those things may come to pass, ultimately Americans as a people will say enough.
That's my take anyway.

My Forcast (guess):

USD: Sideways til summer then managed down
(we'll pay our debts, but with weimar style printed money. But hey, you got your ___? million bucks didn't you? Thus no default)

Au: Managed sideways til a stampede begins (06?)

Oil: Will track % depreciation of USD.

DOW: Will track UP % of USD depreciation
($50 for a Big Mac?)

China: Still pegged until we drop

Collapse? well you may pay $50 for the Big Mac, and may see a 1 new USD for 10 old USD in the future, but I would not under-estimate "Joe Six-Pack's" resilience, fortitude or disdain for having $hit heaped upon him. Even a fuzzy bunny backed into a corner can become quite vicious!

Posted by: Ghosting at January 5, 2005 06:11 PM

enough

Posted by: I am Jack's American at January 5, 2005 10:48 PM

Yeah this use to be a FREE country! Now shut-up and only post Finacial expectations! Is this Not a Depression TV site? So is Money the only forum here really? If it is,then how sad. Because all the rest effects money! In everyway. The conditions of the economy are a reflection of how the people are doing and feeling! But that isn't the case these days because of all the Obsfucation in news reporting and all the analysis that is based on alot of lies by this government in there forecastings and Job-less claims. I wonder how many of you know that out in Denver they have a tent city set out there with 10,000 + people living in it. Because the Economy is so GREAT! Or how one of our families friends was murdered living on the street for a Package of fu--'in Hotdogs, because one of you SOB High Class Corporates closed shop to sell us out, over seas! Leaving her without enough money to maintain her GD RENT payments even . Let alone food! THAT's the Anoymosity you High class Money changers got hanging over your heads! Think about that tonight while your laying in your nice, warm, couzy BED! THERE! NOW IT'S ........ENOUGH!

Posted by: Decoymaker at January 6, 2005 02:10 AM

Hey ghosting .., for us dumb-ass canux, that "Joe six-pack" you mentioned, isn't that who votes for lil' shrub and his band of brigands?

Mr. Muniz, perhaps economics today as it describes the activities of our leaders and elite has come to a point where the apocalypto-cryptic commentary from some of the contributors is justified....na, ok just trying it on.....
But economics is not divorced from our lives, i it is a bad degree one gets when they study how not to work for a living, it's subject natter is not simple abstraction, clean and simple, it is good and wholesome down-home blood and sweat and murder.... god bless Amerika !! I thank the lord my saviour for you good fellas helping me outchano , cuz you know, we're lost in the sauce up here, I mean when we're not too busy dog-sleddin' an all to notice the shit you bouys got yerselfs inta there with all them rich churches and sekret agents and missiles and shit.

Enough. Amen

Posted by: xcKy at January 6, 2005 02:15 AM

Folks.

Just a couple of points of clarification.

Michael and I are very much against censorship - we wanted a venue where people can say what is on their minds, without abusing each other - - -that was one of the only criteria.

Then the blog started, which is really a tool to debate specific elements of what is going on out there.

This current blog is specific to the predictions for 2005, so early on I tried to keep it focused to that, but it is not essential at all that we stay on topic, but logical in order to make the most sense out of what the blog is about.

Now a comment on religion and it's part in prediction.

One of the only tools available to humanity, across the 6 billion of us, that can serve as a reference point for what we are collectively experiencing is prophesy from the worlds great religions - Judaism, Christianity, Islam, Buddhism, Hinduism, Mayan prophesy, Native American beliefs, etc. The aggregate of these beliefs and prophesies is for some kind of major catastrophic event brought on my humanity's lack of adherence to our makers specific directions.
Secularists, modernists, technologists, etc. can ignore this message that is liberally sprinkled across all cultures and major beliefs, but I find it too arrogant to discount the views of the bulk of humanity.

Lets keep the discourse as friendly as possible, as Red Green says "we're all in this together....keep your stick on the ice." This is a controversial site so it's not always easy to keep from outbursts, but we're all big boys here too.

I'll start another topic shortly.

Cheers Rich

Posted by: Rich Lancaster at January 6, 2005 02:47 PM

Thanks Rich. I don't think you guys get enough credit for what you are doing here. Stay the course.

Posted by: FeelingWeird at January 6, 2005 08:47 PM

a day is a thousand years in God's time...that is the bottom line.

Posted by: Brent Long at January 7, 2005 07:13 AM

'Say Rich...... How 'bout a 'survey' on how one should invest $100K of discretionary funds?

Posted by: Bud Buddy (red State) at January 7, 2005 06:07 PM

When will the real estate bubble burst? 2005, or 2006? Any predications?

Posted by: Dan at January 7, 2005 09:23 PM

Ditto, really appreciate this forum Mr Lancaster; contention and squabble are the lifeblood of democracy and democracy is not for the faint of heart (Jean Bethke Elshtein: Democracy On Trial) for the faint of heart we have the mainstream media circus and perhaps that is why it is dangerous to read newspapers in these strange days

Hope I haven't offended with my words as that was not my intention.

Posted by: xCky at January 7, 2005 09:33 PM

Maybe Warren Buffet could post a few of his thoughts about the state of the economy. I'd like to read them.

If I had a hundred grand to invest, it would go into Winn Dixie (4.00 USD) or Safeway (18.61 USD). Both stocks are at the low end of 52 week high/low. People gotta eat.

The prediction of the Dow at 13750 is probably what it'll be.

Posted by: Ron at January 8, 2005 03:27 AM

Dollar - .64
Gold - 595.00
Oil - 60.00 plus
Dow - 9,600.00
Yuan - no
cllpse - no, slow slide with upturns.

Hugo Chavez will get whacked.

Posted by: Chuck at January 8, 2005 05:34 AM

Rich-I really enjoy your posting this forum for all of us to use and abuse as we see fit. I enjoy seeing everybodys points of view right or wrong. We all have one thing in common...We know the ride isn't going to last. It's going to come to a grinding screeching halt in a very rude manner and...we're ALL!!! trying to circumvent it, delay it or in my case and most of you'alls case prepare the best we can. reduce debt, stock up some food etc. Guess what? My house is paid for, so are all my cars, trucks,tools,and equipment. SO WHAT! this means nothing to a pissed off government hell bent on taking away your rights if you insist on preserving them or exercising them. our govt will stop at nothing to preserve their jobs and appointments until...they're BANKRUPT! then our "new" one world govt will step in and... 50,000 well armed tennessee farmboys won't have a chance against a nuke or some chemical weapon. It's inevitable, just like the coming depression but... we can prepare. Feeling wierd- get out of the city,you won't have any friends there once shit hits the fan

Posted by: felzke440 at January 8, 2005 07:21 AM

Let me expand and clarify. I , too believe the U.S. dollar will eventually trade at much lower levels than it does in Jan. 2005. Gold, silver, oil, many other commodities will certainly increase in price, over time, against the dollar-and most other currencies, too. Fiat currencies were designed with inflation in mind.
But major bear markets spanning decades always have strong upward rallies from time to time. One is overdue right now. The dollar is definitely due for substantial depreciation over the next decade, or so...just not any time soon.
In an economy as weak as this one is becoming, neither sustained interest rate upticks nor commodity bull markets are very likely. Not for the next 1 1/2 to 2 1/2 years, that is.
In the time frame extending from early to mid-2005 through mid-2007(at least), the major U.S. problems will be falling commodity prices and steadily increasing weakness in social mood, spending, production, employment, and probably declining stock prices. It is fairly likely that we will enter a recession.
If this plays out as expected, the terrible trade deficit will begin declining (temporarily)...taking substantial selling pressure off the U.S. dollar. This factor along with falling consumer and corporate spending most likely will support the dollar for at least the next 1 1/2 - 2 years.
Gold's day is coming, as is oil's. It just won't happen over the next two years.
Our biggest problem in the intermediate term is going to be deflationary trends, not inflation.
lars.

Posted by: lars at January 8, 2005 07:31 AM

1. Where will the dollar index end the year? Never understimate the value of toilet paper (even the low end scratchy stuff) And remember, digital toilet paper is your finger.

2. What will be the Price of Gold? Same as it's always been, whatever you can get for it.

3. What will be the Price of Oil? Whatever it takes to keep pace with the destruction of our currency (unless they quit taking our currency in trade)

4. Where will the DOW end the year? It's manipulated, it will end where they want you to believe it is.

5. Will the Yuan decouple from the Dollar in '05, YES or NO? No. Only the Chinese know for sure and I'm betting they are setting us up for the same fall Reagan led the Soviets into. Maybe the Chinese will switch to hard money after they grow tired of watching the destruction of our currency.

6. Do you see a major Economic Collapse in '05, YES or NO? Yes. Why wait, unemployed people see it right now. I agree with the person who points out the destruction having been required to destroy the productivity of an entire nation of one income families.

The best part of all this is seeing people speak openly about it. How about all you folks going to your party precinct meetings and taking over your favorite party (like Robertson's people did, that scared Mr. Bush badly enough to get phony laws passed in many states presuming to control how convention delegates voted at the New Orleans convention. What! No jurisdiction! Imagine that!) All political parties can be had easily. Just do it.

Posted by: 72eagle84 at January 8, 2005 11:16 PM

Decoymaker

I rather thought your wake up America essay was quite well done. The purpose of these boards is to say our piece and read the same from others, It should I believe, help us to think outside the box and away from the bought and paid for main stream CNN and CNBC point of view. To this end Decoy, I give a tip of the hat and a kind thank you. Without any and all posts like yours and the others,, what if anything would we have.
If we agree fine,, and if not,, thats fine too, its what chalenges us that counts, Keep the Dialogue open Gentlemen,, in the next few years were going to need all the help we can get from one another,,,, Count on it. ,,,

Posted by: Owl at January 9, 2005 01:52 AM

If you buy an SUV, a Denali, for 44 grand, it's equivalent value in gold is 100 ounces. What will be more useful, the gold or the Denali? What would you rather have, the gold or the Denali? In ten years, the Denali will be worn out, but the gold will still be there. The gold will last as long as the earth does. You can borrow against the gold, but I doubt very much that somebody will loan you money for the value of the Denali that is paid for in full. You could also buy 6000 plus ounces of silver with 44 grand.

My prediction for 2005: less is more.

Posted by: Ron at January 9, 2005 05:20 PM

Pennies: In 1900, 2000 pennies were needed to equal an ounce of gold. At three dollars a day, you would have an ounce of gold in seven days or less. In 2005, you need 41,900 pennies to purchase an ounce of gold; that is about twenty-one times more. Your dollar today is worth less than five cents in 1900 dollars.

We've been robbed.

Posted by: Ron at January 10, 2005 03:26 AM

I'd rather have the Denali. In a depression type scenario that gold may not get you much, but anyone with a sharp mind and a ratchet set can turn a car into about a billion usefull things, from little safety glass greenhoues to windmill/watermill alternator based generators. You got a battery, a few solenoids, a wire harness... lots of fun stuff to cannibalize for the home of the future.

What are you going to do with your gold if nobody has anything to sell anyway? Money won't save you in the new world, but ingenuity might.

Okay, sorry; that's not a prediction. Getting off topic.

Posted by: I am Jack's cleverness at January 10, 2005 03:05 PM

With that scenario, you'll need gas, too. The Denali and the gold is what you will need. You will soon be robbed again.

I know someone who was in Germany during the second world war. The Americans left his town, three days later, the Russians appeared. The doctor and the butcher in the town both had cars... until the Russians showed up at their doors.

There are no guarantees in the second great depression.

Posted by: Ron at January 10, 2005 04:35 PM

>>With that scenario, you'll need gas, too.

Wha...what?

Did you know you can generate electricity without gasoline? (http://www.wondermagnets.com/cgi-bin/edatcat/WMSstore.pl?user_action=detail&catalogno=1101)

It's a wonderful concept you should look into it. By the time I get done with that Denali an automobile is the last thing it's going to look like.

Posted by: cc at January 10, 2005 04:48 PM

Stupid links. Try this;

http://members.1stconnect.com/anozira/SiteTops/energy/Alternator/alternator.htm

Posted by: cc at January 10, 2005 04:51 PM

There is a couple of thousand years of coal in the ground in a whole slew of states, Wyoming has oodles of it. Lots of coal and plenty of uses for it. Energy is no problem, the availability could become a problem overnight. Cyber hacking of powerplant would be rendered useless. Or, worse, bombed-out powerplants would be a nightmare.

Posted by: Ron at January 10, 2005 06:04 PM

If you have enjoyed this interaction then check out the next blog: "Extended Predictions '05."

Cheers Rich

Posted by: Rich Lancaster at January 10, 2005 08:18 PM
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