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EXTENDED PREDICTIONS '05

January 10, 2005

It appears that a lot of D2 readers are getting some useful feedback from the most recent blog on Predictions 2005. So it's probably a good idea to take this to the next level and ask for more predictions and inputs on issues that got some attention in the first blog.

If you have a moment answer for the group the following questions. Again, I'll tally the results at some point and provide an aggregate view of what you all see coming at us in '05. We're going to get away from pure economic predictions here and mix in some other topical areas.

Here goes:

1. How would you invest $100,000 in '05 to achieve the best gains?

2. Will planet earth be rocked by more record breaking "earth changes" (tsunami's, hurricane's, earthquakes, solar flares) in '05?

3. Will humanity face an epidemic of some kind during the year that will cause massive loss of life?

4. Will the US be struck by another terrorist attack on a scale greater than 9/11?

5. Where will interest rates end the year, will the Fed raise them continually throughout '05?

6. If democratic elections go ahead in Iraq this year will a Shi ite regime come to power?

7. Does Hugo Chavez of Venezuela survive 2005?

8. Will Osama be caught some time during the year?

9. Does the US go to war against another adversary during '05, Iran, N. Korea, etc?

10. Does the Chinese bubble burst in '05?

This is going to be interesting! Let's keep it friendly, but not pack any punches.

Cheers Rich

Posted by richardlancaster at January 10, 2005 08:10 PM
Comments

Number 4: I am not going to make a prediction about a terrorist incident, however, I would not want to be in Washington, DC on January 20, 2005.

Number 1: I would keep 100,000 dollars in the cash that it is. Buy cash, if you can afford it. Cash is king, again. Credit is doomed.

Number 8: Osama on the lam is money in the bank for the war-mongers. He'll never be caught.

Earth changes are difficult to predict, nobody saw the tsumani coming until it was too late. Even outran modern communications, satellites and all. The world got caught in the mesmerized reverie. The web bots are predicting more earth-shaking calamity, that is for sure.

Posted by: Ron at January 10, 2005 09:29 PM

1. 30k...short-term US bonds, 40k..good gold producing US/Canadian stocks, 20k...oil stocks, 10k...uranium stocks.
2. No more than usual, but seismic activity may enter a more active period. Also, if El Nino persists, Atlantic hurricane activity might be less than normal.
3. We already have a massive AIDS epidemic in
Africa. Worrisome avian flu in Asia.
4.Probably not....more likely in Arabia.
5. Interest rates raised to 4 pecent but Fed will
have to back off because of a falling stock market.
6. Probably
7. No
8. No
9. Hope not. Administration can not be that stupid after disaster in Iraq. Also, money needed to invade Iran will only exacerbate inflationary forces. Who will finance the cost of such folly.
10. Probably. China's expansion was/is too great for such a short period of time.

Posted by: frank makosky at January 10, 2005 09:48 PM

1. $40K 5-yr CD's at the worst banks possible (should have highest interest rate; if they fail, they will get bailed out FIRST from FDIC funds; subsequent bank failures (better banks) depositors may have to wait a long time to get back full deposits (lessons learned from past S&L crisis);
$30K cash (U.S.)
$10K Gateway Computer stock (investors will price this one up like they did Apple last year - no real basis, just that they will)
$10K Gold (combo certificate and coin; cash insurance; would probably add more every year if tings keep on like they are)
$5K Euros
$4K Swiss Francs
$1K NASCAR season tickets

2. Chances are '05 just average; bad hurricane trend will copntinue over next 5-10 years

3. Agree with above post that AIDS already is a biggie; 'cause it ain't rampant on this continent don't mean people aren't dying....

4. 2-to-1 chance we will get hit by some form of successful terrorist attack; that's why I drink everyday.

5. Fed funds will crawl up 1/4 pt. at a time all year; they will pretend all is well......

6. Iraq elections will be fixed just like in Ohio; Donny and Marie Osmond will win.

7. Yes

8. No, not until '08 election year

9. Ditto 8.

10. Chinese will see recession; don't know if it will be perceived as a bubble burst; other stuff going on there will keep things mixed (economically).

Posted by: bud buddy (red state) at January 10, 2005 10:20 PM

If Donny and Marie win the elections in Iraq, they'll start drinking along with everybody else. har

Posted by: Ron at January 10, 2005 11:15 PM

1. Land & underground home in very small off the path community with liberal laws. Food, Gold & Silver & Cash.
Land is cheap is this type of community

2.&3, I believe we will see more natural disasters this year. And more natural or manmade epedimics.

4.Terrorist attack, I don't think so. Urban Problems due to unemployment etc, very possibly.

5. Think probably 2%, if they take too high with all the unemployment, spending for any kind of luxury will cease. unemployment will grow worse & problems we are thinking 2008 could happen in 2005.

6. if they go ahead with the elections in Iraq, whoever Bush/Cheney/Rumsfield want in power will be in power

7. Alive, but maybe not in Venezula

8. Not a chance, Bush has even said he's not concerned with him. Probably will need him again, hope not but could. If he does, I take back my prediction of no Terrorist activity.

9. They are talking the talk, but Iraq is a mess, you'd hope they'd have learned their lesson there. I hope we don't because we have more than quadrupled the people who hate us over and above the ones we've killed already.

10. Well since WalMart is one of their biggest customers, there's a good possibility they could get in financial trouble. We as Americans can only hope that they have to raise their prices & then we could have a better chance of competing. Not going to happen though because we would have to do what Nixon tried to do. Freeze or reduce wages, and freeze or reduce prices....to stand a chance of pulling out of this mess and the sheep won't let that happen until it's too late.

Posted by: ChemicalGal at January 11, 2005 02:20 AM

1---I'd pay off the few bills I have and head to Montana to buy land.more acerage than I have here very rural but close enough to commute. With my trade and skills I can work most anywhere as long as my health holds out. I'll still have work in a depression but probably not much. plenty of bartering skills should keep me busy. Then i'd sell my place here and buy a few rentals. These are a good retirement income and if worse comes to worse my kids will have a place to live instead of with us. These are my future plans anyway 100g would jumpstart them.---2most likely---3 only if #2 comes to be---4 possibly but not necessary from their point of view, they got what they wanted with 9/11---5 Interest rates will continue to inch up as fast as they can juggle the economy to take them.I'd say a full % point by years end. ---6they'll elect who they want,predicting the outcome is like predicting next years world series...today---7 probably---8 no---9 no they can't afford another shit sandwich like they have in Iraq---10 not yet. needs a triggering device. how about we stop buying their products,that outta do it. Is that likely,not yet

Posted by: felzke440 at January 11, 2005 06:15 AM

1. Personal debt reduction where required, then spend the rest on bear market funds and maybe some TIPS too. Look for values in PM stocks (there are several).

2. Mt St Helens is still building a new dome, acc. to reports. I'd keep an eye on that. Good info and graphics can be found here: http://vulcan.wr.usgs.gov/Volcanoes/MSH/Eruption04/Monitoring/eruption_monitoring_oct-nov_2004.html

3. Not unless it starts in one of the nations hit by the tsunami.

4. Not even going there.

5. I'd bet on a couple of significant raises, i.e. 50 basis or more. Might not be continuous, as I don't think the economy will hold up to it.

6. Probably.

7, 8, 9. Doubt it.

10. This is the big puzzle. Despite the Chinese saying they want slower growth, I don't think it will happen until at least mid to late 2005. Now if the Fed kills the US economy with higher rates, then the snowball effect rolls into China and they drop too.

Posted by: CG at January 11, 2005 03:29 PM

1. How would you invest $100,000 in '05 to achieve the best gains?

I would buy Euros and keep them in a European Bank account. Not so much for gain but to hedge against loss of dollar value.


2. Will planet earth be rocked by more record breaking "earth changes" (tsunami's, hurricane's, earthquakes, solar flares) in '05?

Just the usual hurricanes in the South-east US. This seems to be a yearly thing.

3. Will humanity face an epidemic of some kind during the year that will cause massive loss of life?

No, unless it is bio engineered.

4. Will the US be struck by another terrorist attack on a scale greater than 9/11?

Possibly, and like the first attack it will originate from Washington. Bush may want to invade Iran so his "backers" may create another incident to justify an attack.


5. Where will interest rates end the year, will the Fed raise them continually throughout '05?

Depends on if the oil currency shifts away from the dollar. Interest rates will then have to be at a level greater then fall against the euro to be attractive to investors. The US may also have to agree to pay investment dividends in euros to assure stability of investments.


6. If democratic elections go ahead in Iraq this year will a Shi ite regime come to power?

A US puppet government will rule.

7. Does Hugo Chavez of Venezuela survive 2005?

Yes.

8. Will Osama be caught some time during the year?

Osama is protected by the Bush-Carlyle group. If Osama were ever caught by the non-bushites, he would be killed to prevent him from naming names.

9. Does the US go to war against another adversary during '05, Iran, N. Korea, etc?

Iran...to attempt to prevent the Iran Bourse from competing with NYMEX or IPE. The Iran Bourse scheduled to begin operations in late March 2005 will sell oil in euros

10. Does the Chinese bubble burst in '05?

No, but the Chinese will decouple the renminbi from the dollar and couple it either to the euro or to a basket of currencies.

This is going to be interesting! Let's keep it friendly, but not pack any punches.

Posted by: Euric at January 11, 2005 05:37 PM

There seems to be too much attention paid to gold and other precious metals. What good will gold do in an economic collapse? The only thing of value, will be food, fuel and shelter. People will barter for these. We seem to think that if we have gold we can use it to buy things. We are assuming a lot if we think people will value gold when they are cold and hungry.

Another point to ponder is what happens to those that do prepare? What happens when you starving cold neighbours find out you have food hidden somewhere? Do you think they are going to sit by while you eat and they are hungry? Word will spread that you have something and before you know it, your hiding place is broken into, your stash is taken and you are killed.

Maybe you have a gun, but you don't have an infinite supply of bullets. Your neighbours will have guns too.

The really is no answer as to what to do to prepare.

Posted by: Euric at January 11, 2005 05:51 PM

1. How would you invest $100,000 in '05

LLL, XOM, APPL, anything but bonds

2. Will planet earth be rocked in '05?

Of course, same as usual

3. Will humanity face an epidemic of some kind during the year that will cause massive loss of life?

A pandemic is long overdue: flu, SARS, ebola

4. Will the US be struck by another terrorist attack on a scale greater than 9/11?

Doubtful, unless OBL gets a dirty bomb

5. Interest rates- will the Fed raise them continually throughout '05?

They will try, but if China's economy implodes as I expect, the Fed will have to start cutting

6. If democratic elections go ahead in Iraq this year will a Shiite regime come to power?

A very complicated problem -- there will be no clear outcome and no popular government until Iraqis find a leader and create an effective security force. Watch out for Turkey as they may not wait for the dust to settle.

7. Does Hugo Chavez of Venezuela survive 2005?

Yes, unless he pisses off the Chinese and they whack him.

8. Will Osama be caught some time during the year?

No

9. Does the US go to war against another adversary during '05, Iran, N. Korea, etc?

We can't -- there are no troops available.

10. Does the Chinese bubble burst in '05?

Yes, their economy and growth rates are unsustainable. This will be the big economic story of '05, and it will cause turmoil everywhere. Look for the PLA to blame moderates in the ruling council and exterminate them. If things really get bad, Taiwan might be a convenient whipping boy to distract the angy masses-- look out Asia!

Posted by: TJK at January 11, 2005 06:40 PM

Considering all this negative talk about tsunamis and economic disaster and terrorists, I predict that the most stressful thing that can happen in 2005 is.... nothing.

I think the terrorists know this too. Why not wait until the world is strung tighter than a piano wire before springing the next terrible plot upon them.

Batten down the hatches, it's going to be very very quiet.


Too quiet....


...the drums... they've stopped.

Posted by: Dr. Livingston at January 11, 2005 07:12 PM

1. How would you invest $100,000 in '05 to achieve the best gains? $10K in gold and silver bullion. $20K in gold and silver stock (both juniors and larger companies), $20K in cash, $50K in a Bear type fund in the Nasdaq 100.
2. Will planet earth be rocked by more record breaking "earth changes" (tsunami's, hurricane's, earthquakes, solar flares) in '05? No more or less likely than any other year.
3. Will humanity face an epidemic of some kind during the year that will cause massive loss of life? No comment.
4. Will the US be struck by another terrorist attack on a scale greater than 9/11? Not likely next year, but due to our preemptive foreign policies, we should expect one in the next 10 years.
5. Where will interest rates end the year, will the Fed raise them continually throughout '05? About where they are now… 2+ %. They will raise them higher, then lower them as the economy begins to recess.
6. If democratic elections go ahead in Iraq this year will a Shi ite regime come to power? Is the Pope Catholic?
7. Does Hugo Chavez of Venezuela survive 2005? Don’t know….
8. Will Osama be caught some time during the year? Doubtful…. The telling story is about the hundreds of faithfuls who are so incredibly steadfast in protecting knowledge of his whereabouts. That gives me an unsettling sense of the loyalty and anti-Western resolve of Arab people.
9. Does the US go to war against another adversary during '05, Iran, N. Korea, etc? Doubtful……ONLY. if in response to an attack. We’re spread toooo thin today….
10. Does the Chinese bubble burst in '05? Excellent chance. The US will cough, Japan, will choke, and China will catch pneumonia.

Posted by: Russ Randall at January 11, 2005 08:30 PM

It is simply amazing that we live in times such as these where mankind has acquired a capacity to out do itself. We have developed enough where-with-all where it is now possible to do almost anything. Yet, we bog ourselves down with policies that can possibly obliterate us all, too. The incoherence is difficult to comprehend.

One thing the Chinese have been able to do is build there space with amazing speed. It can be all good.

http://www.skyscraperpicture.com/shanghai10.jpg

Posted by: Ron at January 11, 2005 10:23 PM

1. I'd give half to Doug Casey and the other half to Doug Casey
2. The astroid due to hit in 2029, is taking some time off for good behavior
3.The epidemic started sometime in the 80's there hasn't been any good rock music since the golden age of the late sixty's and early 70's
4.The Chineese will be exporting full sized mass produced autos to the U.S. later this year for under $10,000
5.intrest rates will rise, but the grey panthers still remember 1979
6.Are there concealed carry laws in the MiddleEast?
7.Yep, he was last seen at the anual cocaine
dealers international expo, in Miami Fla.
8.Been to Detroit lately?
9. No, the citizens have taken the next four years off
10. When did Moet and Chandon start a vinyard in Mongolia?

Posted by: Max Wulff at January 12, 2005 03:55 AM

1. How would you invest $100,000 in '05 to achieve the best gains?

30% Jr gold miners, 30% Jr silver miners, 30% in Chinese currency, 10% in biotechnology

2. Will planet earth be rocked by more record breaking "earth changes" (tsunami's, hurricane's, earthquakes, solar flares) in '05?

No, but an asteroid will score a near miss!

3. Will humanity face an epidemic of some kind during the year that will cause massive loss of life?

Nope.

4. Will the US be struck by another terrorist attack on a scale greater than 9/11?

Nope.


5. Where will interest rates end the year, will the Fed raise them continually throughout '05?

ten yr bond 5.5%, 30 year bond - 4.5% -- inverted yield curve. Asian keeps buying US Treasuries to keep their currency strong.


6. If democratic elections go ahead in Iraq this year will a Shi ite regime come to power?

Yes.

7. Does Hugo Chavez of Venezuela survive 2005?

Yes.

8. Will Osama be caught some time during the year?

No. He will be killed.

9. Does the US go to war against another adversary during '05, Iran, N. Korea, etc?

Yes. US bombs Iran nuke reactors

10. Does the Chinese bubble burst in '05?

Yep.

Posted by: Heimlick Maneuver at January 12, 2005 04:20 AM

1. How would you invest $100,000 in '05 to achieve the best gains?
50% gold and 50% silver

2. Will planet earth be rocked by more record breaking "earth changes" (tsunami's, hurricane's, earthquakes, solar flares) in '05?
Not more, not less.

3. Will humanity face an epidemic of some kind during the year that will cause massive loss of life?
No.

4. Will the US be struck by another terrorist attack on a scale greater than 9/11?
No comments.

5. Where will interest rates end the year, will the Fed raise them continually throughout '05?
1% higher than at at this time.

6. If democratic elections go ahead in Iraq this year will a Shi ite regime come to power?
100% positive. There is no other option.

7. Does Hugo Chavez of Venezuela survive 2005?
Sure.

8. Will Osama be caught some time during the year?
I thought he was already caught and killed, wasn't he.

9. Does the US go to war against another adversary during '05, Iran, N. Korea, etc?
No way, Jose. But some other adversary may go to war against US.

10. Does the Chinese bubble burst in '05?
No. China will get stronger with the full support af American happy shoppers and Russian military expertise.

Posted by: Mike at January 12, 2005 05:13 AM

1- Metals, weapons, seeds, tipi, primitive tech survival knowledge, liqor, medicines....
2- Yes...HAARP is working beyond even the most conservative hopes
3- Yes. The rudiments are already incubated and dispersed
4- Yes the US rulilng oligarchs will engineer another "terrorist" strike
5- I dont understand economics all that well so I will guess that rates will ratchet up, way up, then fall dramatically by 3rd quarter
6- There are no "democratic elections" scheduled for Iraq, or the US, or _______ (your home)
7- Chavez will be assassinated by US operatives
8- Osama is lil' shrub's illegitimate brother by Bush senior's paid-for rape of adolescent arab girl held in Kindom sponsored hostage brothel one fun night in the land of lawless sponsored by the king of oil, so of course his brother is quite useful and will be preserved for another day
9- The US will forever be at war as it has been throughout the 20th century: Americans as a people are at war with themselves, with each other, with nature and with the world.
10- How can it do otherwise when the international capitalist class has sponsored the development of a ruling elite there that is far more rapacious and far smaller even than that which controls the fatherland? A few hundred capitalists in China own everything and the 1.3 billion peasants are increasingly squeezed dry.

Some of my favourites

http://www.commondreams.org/views04/1220-20.htm

http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_04/stott122304.html

http://www.countercurrents.org/hr-lovell101204.htm

http://globalresearch.ca/articles/MEH412A.html

http://www.dieoff.org/synopsis.htm

Remember it’s the consumption stupid, there are things you can do
http://www.karmabanque.com/
http://www.walmartwatch.com/
http://www.arnoldexposed.com/
http://www.accuracy.org/press.htm
http://www.alternativeradio.org/

Lest there be no meaning at all, we can at least remain hopeful the monkey will soon perish:
http://dc.indymedia.org/newswire/display/111465/index.php

For those who prefer tv to reading…
http://www.pentagonstrike.co.uk/

And just to keep things jollly ho ho !
http://thewebfairy.com/killtown/pentanium.html


In the spirit of the anti-rational, anti-science tenor of these times, I offer my favourite prognostications for 2005. Chickenhawk Bush may be eliminated as the crisis deepens enabling the real hawks to fly as high as wings of wax are able. America will then get its very own tomb of Lenin. The US economy will fail dramatically and entertainment weekly will review the coverage in the un-news; this will hammer home the meaning of fascism for the sheeple as the military-industrial complex goes domestic. With infinite care and relish, the nascent Superbloc (the rest of the world except for America, UK and asslick canada) will push steadily down on the boot at the throat of the US economy. Gobs of ill-equipped conventional forces could be sacrificed to an "act of terrorism" when the missing WMD's miraculously and spectacularly show-up in time to "fix things up" over there in the mideast. Orwell's 1984 will enjoy a brief tour of the top ten books list in NY though most of America will fail to notice, as most Americans can no longer read, let alone reason. Hup two four five…


Peace on earth,


XckY

Posted by: XckY at January 12, 2005 06:25 PM

1. How would you invest $100,000 in '05 to achieve the best gains?

Rydex or other bear fund.

2. Will planet earth be rocked by more record breaking "earth changes" (tsunami's, hurricane's, earthquakes, solar flares) in '05?

These will increase going into the decade.

3. Will humanity face an epidemic of some kind during the year that will cause massive loss of life?

The odds for it increase as population rises, but also as bioterrorism technology is developed.

4. Will the US be struck by another terrorist attack on a scale greater than 9/11?

Odds are high.

5. Where will interest rates end the year, will the Fed raise them continually throughout '05?

4.25%

6. If democratic elections go ahead in Iraq this year will a Shi ite regime come to power?

Not in reality, but it may be presented as such.

7. Does Hugo Chavez of Venezuela survive 2005?

No.

8. Will Osama be caught some time during the year?

No.

9. Does the US go to war against another adversary during '05, Iran, N. Korea, etc?

Yes.

10. Does the Chinese bubble burst in '05?

Everyone's bubble is going to burst this year.

Posted by: Peter at January 12, 2005 06:29 PM

1. 30% in various foreign currencies (CAD EUR SWF) 20% physical silver, 50% government bonds.

2. thats impossible to say

3. quite possibly, aids in africa will probably get worse

4. No, 911 was a one time event. However, if support for the war in Iraq erodes, I expect there to be anothe attack, but on a smaller scale. Osama Bin wants the war to continue as long as possible so as to further enrage the muslim world, thus leading to an islamic revolution He hopes)

5. 4%, just a wild guess.

6. I dont think the elections will go ahed

7. probably, if not he wil be replaced by another leftist leader.

8. nope

9. yes, Iran.

10. I doubt it.

7.

Posted by: michael at January 13, 2005 12:29 AM

If I had an extra hundred grand besides the first hundred grand in cash, I'd buy energy stocks. This energy company is probably in pretty good shape. I'll predict better things for it to come. I wish I had an extra hundred grand to plow into it. That makes two hundred grand I wish I had.

BKH is the symbol. You can do the rest. You decide after that.

Posted by: Ron at January 13, 2005 07:18 PM

1. How would you invest $100,000 in '05 to achieve the best gains?

PM STOCKS

2. Will planet earth be rocked by more record breaking "earth changes" (tsunami's, hurricane's, earthquakes, solar flares) in '05?

NO

3. Will humanity face an epidemic of some kind during the year that will cause massive loss of life?

NO

4. Will the US be struck by another terrorist attack on a scale greater than 9/11?

NO

5. Where will interest rates end the year, will the Fed raise them continually throughout '05?

SLOW AND STEADY TO 4.25

6. If democratic elections go ahead in Iraq this year will a Shi ite regime come to power?

YES

7. Does Hugo Chavez of Venezuela survive 2005?

YES

8. Will Osama be caught some time during the year?

NO

9. Does the US go to war against another adversary during '05, Iran, N. Korea, etc?

YES, IRAN.

10. Does the Chinese bubble burst in '05?

NO

Posted by: Pooh at January 13, 2005 11:48 PM

1. How would you invest $100,000 in '05 to achieve the best gains?

I believe in deflation time the idea to make money out of money is plain wrong.
I would spend the cash on luxury items. Collections, art objects so on.

If I really wanted to make cash, I'd go into micro credit banks (5%), wind power and solar power companies, other renewable energies (20%)... The rest in cash or cash like short bonds, 10% dollar, 15% euro, 25% remnibi, 25% yen

2. Will planet earth be rocked by more record breaking "earth changes" (tsunami's, hurricane's, earthquakes, solar flares) in '05?

the trend will go on. 05 will be one of the hottest years ever. With droughts in several places and intense rains in others. Climate change will go on.
Sollar flares eartquakes and tsunamis are unrelated to human activities ... so no opinion.
Hurricanes ... NO link proved.

3. Will humanity face an epidemic of some kind during the year that will cause massive loss of life?

AIDS will go on.
asia flu may spread a little.
Those things take time.

4. Will the US be struck by another terrorist attack on a scale greater than 9/11?
dunno

5. Where will interest rates end the year, will the Fed raise them continually throughout '05?

Yes, till deflation hits. Say 4% at max.

6. If democratic elections go ahead in Iraq this year will a Shi ite regime come to power?
sure.

7. Does Hugo Chavez of Venezuela survive 2005?
Hopefully yes.

8. Will Osama be caught some time during the year?
Don't think so. Bush does not really be looking for him. Does Osama exists indeed ? Is he responsible for 9/11 ?

9. Does the US go to war against another adversary during '05, Iran, N. Korea, etc?
Don't think so. TOo costly. But who knows.


10. Does the Chinese bubble burst in '05?

Probably if the US engine falls, the chinese will fall. I predicted a US fall this coming month ... So let's stick to it. However I doubt the chinese burst will trigger the US fall. I bet the chinese will be the last to leave the game.

I think the Japanese may have a higher long term interest in the end of the US-chinese game. China is catching up because of the US market. May be they would not care if both would fall.
+ they know what deflation is. They know the bubble game can not be played forever. They know INTIMATELY the price of such an error.

Posted by: df at January 14, 2005 09:42 AM

I ve just found this site
http://www.marketocracy.com
I'm sure other exist...

Hey you michael and richard ... Why don't you propose all the readers of your website to engage in a friendly competition on a simulation website.

We all start with 1 million dollar at the beginning of the year and compare.
what dya all think ?

Posted by: DF at January 14, 2005 01:28 PM

Who is going to lend me a million dollars?

Posted by: I am Jack's Poverty at January 14, 2005 02:40 PM

It's a simulation man ...
It's like DUKE of flight simulator.

I mean, we all make predictions, we could form a club overthere, club depression2.tv

That would be fun.

Except on the website I linked, there's no possibility to trade on asian stock exchances or europeans, no opportunity to go for gold or bonds ... it's limited to USA stocks.

But may be some of you people know of another website where we could have fun.
Anyway, I'll start a short fund in order to have fun overthere.

Posted by: DF at January 14, 2005 03:34 PM

1. If I had $100000 to invest (haha) I would put $50,000 in coal production stocks (but be careful here, not metalurgical coal, the stuff we burn in our power plants) I would put $25,000 in one of the big oil/gas corporations Exxon,Shell etc. These are not meant as short term investments - hold on to them for a few years and I bet you will double your money (for whatever its worth then) The other $25,000 I would place in the Defense Industries (a risky investment as I believe the Yankees will desert Iraq in a sudden and surprising manner.

2. 3. 4. It is impossible to predict the exact time and scale of any natural disasters that may occur. I have no links with any terrorist organizations so I cannot predict the time and scale of any attacks which may occur either. I am sure that many are planned, however.

5. Interest rates will slowly rise all through 2005, but it will not help the dollar any.

6. "Elections" take place in Iraq, but the Sunni's will be over-represented and the Shiite's under-represented. The U.S has never allowed Iraq to become a Shiite state and never will. (remember the Iran-Iraq war...)

7. Hugo Chavez stays in power - no problem, unless he turns the oil taps off.

8. Osama? Osama who? Haven't seen him in the media much lately - not important anymore. It is possible that he might be found dead somewhere.

9. No new military wars for the U.S in '05 - they are near the drafting point now - another front would be a disaster at this stage.

10. China bubble stops inflating in '05 - higher oil prices begin to offset Chinese slave wage labour power and Chinese goods become much more expensive to produce and ship overseas.
(Get rid of your Wal-mart stock - or sell it short!!!!)


Northern View

Posted by: Northern View at January 15, 2005 09:42 AM

Hey northern, on this site
http://www.marketocracy.com

you can play with one million dollar, it's a simulation. We could create a Depression TV club and it be fun.

Michael and richard, what dya think ?

Posted by: DF at January 17, 2005 10:17 AM

Folks.

If you want to go ahead with this, set it up and send me the link. I'll post the link on the site so everyone can find it.

I checked out the site, it looks fun, but I didn't see a place where it said with a free account you could create some kind of a club.

I guess we could present our picks in a blog on D2 and then at the end of the year we could record our results and see who won?

Let me know what you think.

Cheers Rich

Posted by: Rich Lancaster at January 17, 2005 03:01 PM

Well,
I'm currently trying to create a club. It is clearly open to free members.
There is already a club for short sellers ...

I mut add that picking stocks has not been easy, the interface is not very user friendly as you don't have the description of the stocks and codes in the free membership.
I've used this link to get an idea of what the codes for the different assets were :
http://www.askchart.com/
I guess we'll be able to discuss this in the club if other people like to go for this.

Well I just created the club, so anybody wanting to play with one million dollar you can do it on this site, and we'll be able to discuss it in the club.

Posted by: Df at January 17, 2005 09:05 PM

Thx DF.

OK folks who wants to participate for 05 with their stock picks - winner gets a piece of paper with $1 million Fed Reserve Notes written on it - worth it's weight in gold!!

DF can you explain where, how and what this is to anyone who wants to join in?

Cheers Rich

Posted by: Rich Lancaster at January 18, 2005 03:07 PM

My latest prediction; The Coalition of the Unwilling, lead by the unending pressure by the Isreali government who asserts that a nuclear reactor within a billion miles of Jerusalem would violate biblical law and seriously tick off Abraham.

I can see it now...

Secretary of Defense: "Mr. President, you're asking me to provide you with evidence that a US lead invasion of Iran would be successful, and you want that report on your desk in 15 minutes?"

Bush: "Yeah that's right. We got to stop this nookoolar threat from aspirating any futher than, the uh...um, than they already has done. Sorry I'm not as quick on my feet as I should be I guess. What? Oh yes I know I'm sitting! Yuh yuh yuh yuh yuh"

SOD: "Sir, I'm not sure where to begin. Our forces are currently busy in Afghanistan... not to mention a little place called Iraq, and frankly..."

Bush: "Now jus a second! I want to reask this question in the form of an answer. Keep in mind I want you to tell me your unabashed opinion of whether or not a US lead invasion of Iran would be successful, and don't forget -- if you say "no", you're fired".

SOD: "Uh...what?"

Bush: "I'll consider your silence an affirmation of the interjection I just posed. Thanks and may god bless Amurrica. And once He's done blessing Amurrica He can also bless Texas and God help us if we have to answer to another one of those, uh, uh... whatya call'em Uh, Aboogarums...uh, Abbagharab...uh, Abu-guh-rim.... aw hell you know what I mean! May God bless Jesus! Amen! Get my Air Force One Teddy Bear Pajamas ready for the flight! We're going to war boys.... yeeeeeee-haaaaawwww!"

Posted by: I am Jack's Misery at January 18, 2005 08:58 PM

You people are funny! You aren't free. You are slaves that aid and abet a LIE! The Lie is . You think you live in a Free Market system. And as you
Play you delusional Market Games of profit. You continue to aid and abet the death of America.
Read on!

The following is presented "as is", just as it was first published in 1983 in a
book titled "The Tontine Government." This transmission is not offered for
general consumption, as only a very small percentage of you will understand or
appreciate its contents, and it is for that very small percentage that it is
primarily being offered.

T H E E X O N
[T h e E x e m p t E l e c t]

[EXON: "(In Britain) one of four yeomen of the guard who act as commanding
officers in the absence of higher authority. Also called EXEMPT."]

The Federal Reserve Act transferred the money-making powers of the United States
to a private group of bankers who then set up the fractional reserve system of
banking. Under the charter granted to this private corporation, there was a
stipulation that if the American people did not agree with its operation, the
people had 20 years to oust the corporate charter. They could (or were entitled
to do this) by the use of an ancient Common Law Writ called a Quo Warranto ["quo
warranto" means "by what right?"] After 20 years it becomes a matter of Public
Policy; Public Policy being a part of the Law of Nations under the Law Merchant.
Twenty years puts us to the year 1933, which is the infamous year the Congress
suspended our Public National Money System (Gold Standard, House Joint
Resolution 192, June 5, 1933) and put an end to the American people being able
to "pay" their debts "at law." Upon reading the debates of the 73rd Congress in
1933 on the subject of the gold standard, one learns that on June 5, 1933
America became bankrupt; being unable to tender in "payment" of debts.

But that is only part of the story. What you probably also missed was the part
where America was re-insured by a credit policy and this was done under the
Statute of 19 George II c. 37. At the stroke of the pen, American lost its
Constitutional government in "payment" of debts and its 18-delegated powers,
along with its allodial land titles and all the "law" that went with it.
Instead of "paying" taxes to support a democratic-republican form of government,
where the people are sovereign, we now have a parliamentary-republic in which
the Congress is the sovereign. But more importantly, all we can do is a
compelled performance in "discharge" (NOT PAYMENT) of debts. These "discharges"
are nothing more than insurance premiums to the Federal Reserve, which is a
Tontine policy, which is re-insured by a credit policy.

The idea of a Tontine scheme is nothing new, but has existed in one form or
another since the Roman Empire. As time went on, it became more sophisticated
up to the point where it is today. The first Tontine started in America in
1791. By the year 1880, Tontines were very numerous and were quite corrupt.
There was practically no end to their power due to the immense amounts of money
involved. As a result of this money power, the Tontine insurance companies were
buying up businesses and controlling the government. As a result, the Tontines
became so corrupt and gross that they threatened the American family and the
very basis of the United States of America. This corruption spurned the
Armstrong Committee in the year 1905 to investigate the Tontine insurance
companies. After a long investigation, the committee recommended that the state
legislatures pass legislation banning Tontine schemes. This was done under the
non-forfeiture statues. The owners of these Tontine schemes saw that their
whole world was about to collapse because of the pending legislation regarding
their schemes. They immediately went to work to establish a federal system to
both broaden the scope of their operation and avoid the problems of operating in
individual states. This was the start of the Federal Reserve System in 1913.
The Tontine policy is a gambling policy, or what is called in the law, a
wagering policy. The cunning plot to reinstitute the Tontine scheme at the
Federal level in the name of the Federal Reserve is by all means cunning and
despicable. This is the basic groundwork used to enslave the American people.

Their next move was the suspension of the Public National Money System (HJR 192)
in "payment" of debts, and then 5 years later, the Erie Railroad v. Tomkins 304
U.S. 64 case, which opened the floodgates to flood the country with insurance
script, debt and credit in "discharge" of debts.

The plot to enslave the people thickens even more because until the advent of
(HJR 192) and the Erie Railroad decision, the Maritime or Admiralty Law now
prevails over the entire country through re-insurance of a credit policy
mentioned earlier. The second a person touches the credit system of the Public
National Credit (Federal Reserve) they have involved themselves in a Joint
Maritime venture for profit in a Tontine policy of limited liability for the
payment of debt. The joint venture being the use of the communal credit,
Maritime Law is a credit system, and finally, you have created an insurable
interest because you used the credit system of the commune. The insurable
interest is what the federal income tax, right to work taxes, property taxes,
and all the other obscenities that you can think of are about. These are not
taxes, but insurance premiums on the use of the credit for profit.

In the case of De Livio v. Boit, 2 Galliston, Mass., Federal Case No. 3776
(1812), it was held that insurance is a maritime contract, therefore, of
Admiralty Jurisdiction. A person's involvement in Maritime Law (communal credit
of the Tontine, HJR 192) means you are on a voyage and hopefully it will be
successful (gambling) and you will make a profit. Under limited liability for
the payment of debt, the limited liability is provided by the insurance premiums
you tender (your taxes).

Common Law insurance is for the security of the family unit and not for profit.
This means that you want to place yourself under the Common Law rather than the
Maritime Law, unless you are greedy, corrupt and in control of the system! The
principles of Maritime Law is not family, but rather for profit, and under
Maritime Law you can be (and are) compelled to carry insurance (pay taxes -- a
form of protection money) and you are now beginning to see the mess this country
is in and how we got here.

The gold bill being promoted by Rep. Ron Paul from Texas is another hoax by the
enemy in order to destroy the Federal Reserve, thereby allowing the Class "A"
stockholders of the Tontine to foreclose on the United States Treasury, whereby
all the land titles will be totally locked up along with the highway system that
has the U.S. in front of the route number, the Library of Congress will be
confiscated and all the truths about the corrupt Tontine will disappear forever.
These are only a few of the foreclosures to come. Rep. Ron Paul's gold bill is
a private gold system owned by the owners of the Tontine swindle. This gold
bill will not repeal HJR 192, nor will it be a Public National Gold Standard
owned by "We the People" in "payment" of debt.

The Formula of the Federal Reserve is as follows:

Fractional Reserve Banking is a Tontine policy, re-insured by a credit policy in
the form of ex-chequer annuitie bills generating an over insurance, which is
split with the Class "A" stockholders of the Federal Reserve and the United
States Treasury. This split started in 1946 to fund their socialistic programs
whose effect catalyzed small investment and over-consumption, postulating traded
discounted script, compounding on Tontine principles, whose price premium is
being confiscated through insurable interest at positive premium, positive
premium, reflecting inflation.

As one can see, the freedom movement has been taking an historical approach to
the problem and this has been in error because nowhere in the history of the
world today have we dealt with the issues that we are confronted with today.

An interesting fact, as a result of the Tontine (Federal Reserve), HJR 192 and
the Erie Railroad decision is this: there is no longer an immovable law
(Common Law) of the world to guide commerce. Everything is in collision through
a Tontine (gambling policy) for profit (greed) under limited liability for the
payment of debt, ala John Calvin and the Teutonic Order. For more information
on the Teutonic Order, see the "Black Book of the Admiralty" 4 volumes, the
authority on Admiralty Law. The above Tontine, HJR 192 and the Erie Railroad
decision, 304 U.S. 64, has now turned private enterprise, not free enterprise,
into public law under the International Law of Marine Insurance under the guise
of National Government. This law of insurance (limited liability for the
payment of debt) has superseded the Common Law and equity. All the Law and
equity has been dismantled and replaced by a wagering policy of insurance under
Admiralty Law.

Since HJR 192 and the Erie Railroad decision replaced the immovable law (Common
Law) with the movable law (law of marine insurance), then it follows that there
are in reality, no Common Law juries today. Today's juries decide no issues of
Law. Today's judges, state and federal, are now more properly Vice Admiralty
Chancellors ruling in marine insurance and the juries merely advisory councils
which serve as the conscience of the Vice Admiral (after being instructed by
him). The legislature (sovereign) has already ruled by passing the statute
initially. One has to remember that we as a people and a nation are bankrupt
and insolvent, being unable to determine our own destiny because we cannot truly
"pay" our debts. You are not responsible today for what you do, Common Law
however is full responsibility for your actions.

Organized religions of today teach the Tontine principles of the Teutonic Order.
Proof of this is that the church will not marry you unless you get permission
from the State. The license, incidentally, is purchased with Tontine insurance
script. This license requirement is a direct result of the church having its
franchise to operate from the State under limited liability for the payment of
debt (forgive our debts as we forgive our debtors). For more on John Calvin,
read Thomas Jefferson's letter to Dr. Benjamin Waterhouse, June 26, 1822. For
profit, because the church is tied into the Tontine credit system and is
gambling to make a profit. Ultimately, what this all means is the One World
Corporate Church (EXON) operates for profit while its debts are passed onto the
reprobate or non-elect slaves on Space Ship Earth. This "good ship Earth"
concept is important because it allows the law of maritime insurance and not the
Common Law to operate and our freedoms are based on the Common Law as prescribed
by our Founding Fathers.

The law of maritime insurance (Tontine) imposition is destroying families by
turning them into warring cannibals. The order of the day will soon be murder,
rape, robbery, distrust and lack of respect for your fellow man, along with
unidentifiable fatherhood to be a corporate cog in their machine to worship
their coal-tar god of EXON. This will all work for the benefit of the people of
EXON (the elect) who will be exempt from all liabilities. These EXON are the
last survivors of the Tontine swindle, such as George Rapp and his Harmony
Society that became the first Tontine court case in America. In this case, the
Pennsylvania Supreme Court upheld the people's right to enter into a commune and
each surrender his property into one common stock for the mutual benefit of all.
Schriber v. Rapp, 5 Watts 23 (1836). It is this very case that opened the door
for the destruction of America and its precious document called the
"Constitution of the United States." The Class "A" stockholders of the Tontine
Life Insurance Corporation of limited liability for the payment of debt called
the Federal Reserve. They will own everything on the face of the Earth and the
non-elect reprobates will be locked into performing as slaves. The non-elect
will be forced to use all the EXON's phoney products so the EXON can show a
profit. Thomas Jefferson said it will take mankind at least 2,000 years to
overthrow this slavery should we become totally locked into it.

This may sound like an insane story, but it is true, nevertheless.

Lee Brobst - Lecturer

----------- (This file was found elsewhere on the Internet and uploaded to the Patriot FTP site by S.P.I.R.A.L., the Society for the Protection of Individual Rights and Liberties. E-mail alex@spiral.org)

Posted by: Tim at January 19, 2005 05:18 PM

IRAN.....A draft.....many people will flee to good ole Canada.

They call them draft dodgers! EH!

Posted by: a silent neighbour at January 20, 2005 05:55 AM

Here goes:

1. Ha, no.

2. Big time, its an inevitability.

3. Geophysically, yes, biologically inflicted on man by man? probably.

4. It only gets worse from here.
5. --

6. --

7. --

8. Ha, I'd be shocked.

9. Yes, at least one. Iran first most likely.

10. Looks that way doesn't it?

Posted by: tkelly at January 21, 2005 12:25 AM

For those who want to enjoy the fun of simulation ...

This website allow you to start a fund with one virtual million dollar.
http://www.marketocracy.com

You pick your stocks. The website takes note of the market evolution. And you make profit or losses according to it.
You then are rated against other fund managers.

It is possible to discuss within clubs. I started a Depression2 club.

For those who want to check their predictions, it is a fun way to do it.

Picking stocks is not very easy, as there are lots of them. But I bet you will all manage to do it as I did, though it was my first time, and english is not even my first language.

you can have a look at www.askchart.com in order to find some help.

Posted by: DF at January 21, 2005 08:13 AM

In 2005, the rest of the world will start to blame the U.S. for global warming. It will start out slowly but will increase with each passing year. We've angered plenty of nations with our bone-headed invasion of Iraq, and global warming will give others a reason to hate us and plot against us. I don't think that Bush will go into either Iran or North Korea for two reasons: (1) we suspect that they both have nukes already; and (2) neither of them was dumb enough to try to kill Daddy.

Posted by: Optionsforyou at January 21, 2005 06:05 PM

In case you didn't understand my post above...I'll spell it out for you in laymens terms okay!
You could own the World with FRN/s but you would never trully own a thing but a debt. That the World Bank could call on you at anytime. Freely, and lawfully taking your FRN's threw the court at anytime it pleased. Because you see. A FRN isn't money. It is a Transfer of debt. FRN's are not MONEY! Getting it yet? Oh I think you do!

Posted by: Decoymaker at January 22, 2005 01:15 AM

How would you invest $100,000 in '05 to achieve the best gains?

Well as long i as i have other funds as well which i do,i would purchase options in Pan American silver to mature on january 2006 and 2007. this much would be about 33,000 for easu year and the other funds would purchase silver bullion.

2. Will planet earth be rocked by more record breaking "earth changes" (tsunami's, hurricane's, earthquakes, solar flares) in '05?
I think this will most likely occur when the moon is at its closest point to the earth .
January 22 is one period of close proximity.
I believe the earth changes are influenced by planetary magnetism on the earths liquid magma forcing the center of the plates up as it does do with the ocean tides.
Such earthquakes may well create Tsunamis but volcanoes can also be a possibility. I would put at least one record disaster at odds on but this time it will directly affect the US and in turn most of the rest of the world . So much so that it will expose vulnerabilities in the financial system etc

3. Will humanity face an epidemic of some kind during the year that will cause massive loss of life?
Not this year but in two or three.
4. Will the US be struck by another terrorist attack on a scale greater than 9/11?
I think so but do not forget the madman in North Korea. It took 12 years to catch the unibomber and he did not have many resources.
I also am sure the Insurgents and Al Quaeda are brewing something . It amazes me that they have not pulled anything of so far. The suez canal is a likely target for some sinking ships . Wall street,the Panama canal,tall buildings , wild fires,random sniper shootings,truck bombs and more.
5. Where will interest rates end the year, will the Fed raise them continually throughout '05?
They will be forced to as the dollar goes crunch.
Initially it will continue slowly but will be sped up later. This will precipitate a housing bubble fart.
6. If democratic elections go ahead in Iraq this year will a Shi ite regime come to power?
Obviously,but the only way they can survive is to get serious and fight fire with fire.This is not something the Americans can do . long term incarcerations and severe interogations.
7. Does Hugo Chavez of Venezuela survive 2005?
Definatly he is a popularly democratically elected president and his poeple will continue to support him.
8. Will Osama be caught some time during the year?
Unlikely.
9. Does the US go to war against another adversary during '05, Iran, N. Korea, etc?
No , we simply do not have the resources.
However we may not have a choice if North Korea creates an attack on some great scale , In which case we will attack if we can get support from its neighbours.
10. Does the Chinese bubble burst in '05?
Only if the US is Attacked by a severe natural disaster or a man made one . I would think it will slow down on account of one or the other of these. Not due to it's immediate fiscal problems.

thanks for this great fun service, i look forward to seeing how close or far i may be next year!!!


Posted by: NIck at January 22, 2005 05:16 AM

This is a good discussion area, too bad we have to have the type of postings just before this.
Thank you Rich for a place to have thoughtful, lively discussions.
Chemical Gal

Posted by: ChemicalGal at January 25, 2005 05:13 PM

The advertisement postings should be proof enough for anyone that A.) Osama Bin Laden had a good reason to bomb the business nerve center of America, and B.) while in the year 2005 people are using potentially amazing technology to solicit penis enlargement pills and forced rape pictures that the world is fucking doomed.

Doomed I tell ya.

Doomed.

Posted by: grond at January 25, 2005 10:24 PM

1. How would you invest $100,000 in '05 to achieve the best gains?

no comment

2. Will planet earth be rocked by more record breaking "earth changes" (tsunami's, hurricane's, earthquakes, solar flares) in '05?

maybe the odd quake in eastern asia or turkey but nothing as bad as the indian ocean one

3. Will humanity face an epidemic of some kind during the year that will cause massive loss of life?

cant really see anything

4. Will the US be struck by another terrorist attack on a scale greater than 9/11?

yes

5. Where will interest rates end the year, will the Fed raise them continually throughout '05?

yes

6. If democratic elections go ahead in Iraq this year will a Shi ite regime come to power?

no

7. Does Hugo Chavez of Venezuela survive 2005?

indeed

8. Will Osama be caught some time during the year?

i have a feeling he will

9. Does the US go to war against another adversary during '05, Iran, N. Korea, etc?

Iran yes - others no. Cant see a N. Korean war until 2006/2007 at least

10. Does the Chinese bubble burst in '05?

Chinas economy will remain strong as it becomes increasingly westernised.

Posted by: Cederic at January 26, 2005 03:00 AM

US AAA rating - how much longer???
Being contempt to see there are at least more than just a handful of analytical humans that do not get blinded by the nervous - and by now contradicting - Fed comments/speeches/minutes,
I am just missing one important issue here: How long can the USA sustain it's AAA rating. Everybody knows, S&P and Moody's didn't foresee the problems at Enron and Worldcom up to the moment of collapse. OK, the cos. dodged the books, and a credit analyst HAS to rely on the data provided to him.
But when will these so called independent credit analysts wake up to the horrendous worsening of most US economic indicators?
Assuming there are no ready to shoot tanks in front of the ofices of Moody's and S&P, I wonder what keeps the rating agencies to hold on to the AAA rating for a country that has the highest public and private debt ever seen in history and absolutely no plans to cut back on their war-induced spending!?
Having been profesionally concerned with credit risks on the corporate and emerging markets levels, I cannot remember a case where a good rating has been untouched when you already could see a dramatic decline in the value of the currency, no plausible solutions to the twin deficits and now the plan to raze social security. Oh, not to forget the cost of the war (what's your guess on the effective US subsidy on every barrel of oil coming out of Iraq?)
These are all signs of a carnival policy - just let the good times roll at interest rates that don't even cover inflation.
Normally the skyrocketing advance of debts should initiate a rating review. Who will touch that hot potato first? Or is this just another example of covert government influence/pressure in order to keep the party going a little longer?
In my opinion, any corporation in the world would have seen their rating dwindle to at least a single A rating! Will this system only be brought down in a standoff between investors and the Fed where the rating agencies will have been squeezed out because of their politically motivated ratings that have diverged too far from reality as still to be considered rational? Foreign investors are already beginning to vote with their feet and reduce their $ holdings. When will the rating agencies open their eyes again and see these facts? Or are they coerced into sticking with their AAA ratings because a deterioration could be the final straw that will nosedive the share markets?

Posted by: Toni at January 30, 2005 11:43 AM

I am not an economist and economic analysis is not my bag. The US gummint is no longer a Republic and the citizens are no longer citizens, just a pool of bodies ready and willing to do the dirty work for our fascist rulers. Big deal anymore if you have anything at all, from billionaire on down to the homeless, wigged-out Vietnam veteran sleeping on park benches on Capitol Hill.

The war in Iraq has cast an eerie pall across this nation and it is having a cumulative effect. The Republican fascists have spent the nation into the poor house and they could give a rip.

The people of India were hoping for Bush to be 're-elected' because they think it will all fall down sooner rather than later.

That's life in 2005. You have a nice day in poverty.

Posted by: Ron at January 30, 2005 05:54 PM

The U.S. economy is in shambles.... and they tell us to get on with life. Go to Disneyworld, spend spend spend.

Marines getting killed all over Iraq.... they tell us it's a resounding success. Mission Accomplished, we've defeated those freedom hating suiciders.

Iraqis "vote" for the first time, and I guarantee you the winner is Allawi no matter how they voted...

And on CNN, Michael Jackson is making headline news.


Please God, make it stop.

Posted by: VBIED at January 31, 2005 06:51 PM

Few people joined at marketocracy too bad, it could have been fun.

Just watch the latest numbers, employment, confidence falling ...
Add some spicy iraki news.

+ reluctant chinese.

It's gonna blow this year for sure.

Posted by: DF at February 4, 2005 04:43 PM

It´s gonna blow this year for sure. I coudn´t agree more absolutely with this opinion.

The liquidity trap for bulls is working at full potential.

Now, with prices of every asset skyrocketing, deflation seems a unavoidable end for this historical chapter. Who´s going to "extract" liquidity in the future if every dollar that could be extracted from assets has been spent or has become a debt burden?

Posted by: Nineu at February 5, 2005 12:53 AM

1. How would you invest $100,000 in '05 to achieve the best gains?

Since it is to invest and not live on:25K in euros,30 K in Gold, 30K in Silver and 15K in cash

2. Will planet earth be rocked by more record breaking "earth changes" (tsunami's, hurricane's, earthquakes, solar flares) in '05?

Most certainly. Definitely one large earthquake of over 7 on the Richter. Can go up to 9.

3. Will humanity face an epidemic of some kind during the year that will cause massive loss of life?

Yes as a result of the above catastrophe

4. Will the US be struck by another terrorist attack on a scale greater than 9/11?

Moot point. If you mean will Bush stage another event. Yes. To justify intervention in Iran, Syria or North Korea. Venezuela not to be omitted too.

5. Where will interest rates end the year, will the Fed raise them continually throughout '05?

At first it will look like 4.25 at the end of the year. fter a dollarhammered down and high inflation it will end up at between 6 to 7

6. If democratic elections go ahead in Iraq this year will a Shi ite regime come to power?

Most certainly a Shiite regime in power

7. Does Hugo Chavez of Venezuela survive 2005?
Yes. It's Bush who I hope will not survive 2005

8. Will Osama be caught some time during the year?

Osama is dead and gone.His name is used to
benefit Bush's activities

9. Does the US go to war against another adversary during '05, Iran, N. Korea, etc?

Yes. Bush will find some excuse. He has less than 1400 days to do God's bidding

10. Does the Chinese bubble burst in '05?.

No the Chinese bubble will not burst.China has enough of a domestic market to survive. If the Chinese Bubble burst The American pimple will erupt too.

Posted by: Nathan at February 7, 2005 11:29 AM

Folks.

I've been busy, wrapped up in merging my existing employer in to a 600lb publicy traded gorilla over the past month. The merger should be over in a couple of weeks and then our new owners from Texas will be large and in charge!

So, consequently I've spent very little time on the site. Luckily Michael has come back on the scene and taken over the daily links for the past 2 weeks or so. He is now involved in his new venture (www.bullnotbull.com) which you should subscribe to, his articles are always topical, insightful and stimulating.

I'm going to shut this thread down now that Chinese New Year has been and gone. I have nearly finished analysing the Predictions you all made, it's pretty interesting. I'll open a new thread and post the basic analysis for you all to see and comment on.

This has been a lot of fun, but most recently the spammers have found this thread so it is definitely time to shut it down and jump to a new one.

Thanks for all the input, it is great to read how like-minded individuals think and feel about some of these critical topics.

Cheers Rich

Posted by: Rich Lancaster at February 11, 2005 09:21 PM
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