Gold Charts R Us

 Welcome to GCRU #93 on Dec 17, 2003. It’s been a yo-yo mkt since last Wednesday. up, down, up, down, up. Monday was outrageous. On the Saddam news, stk mkts rose sharply, along with the $, & gold fell. That lasted about 2 hours. Then it reversed. Stks fell, $ lost its gain & gold cancelled out its loss to close unchanged on day. So much for the Saddam effect. Zero! ••Many of U avoided the yo-yo & the stressful Monday reversals by taking my advice last week to sell at mkt in many shares. One reader, who didn’t sell, writes: "Dear Uncle Harry, Why oh why didn't I take your advice? When I looked at my portfolio today, I felt sick-I saw $20,000 in profits disappear like a puff of smoke. Why is it so hard to grab profits while I have them? I must be greedy. OK, I vow to place sell orders for the profit levels U recommend. I can't stand to see so much profit vanish like that. K Berggren." That’s how we learn, by losing capital or profits. Emotions are the enemy. •••Monday gold was aprox at its peak for the year, but gold shares were at a different stadium! The spread between gold & gold shares is the biggest seen in years. Does gold fall to meet lower shares or do shares rise to meet higher gold? Or some of each? Probably the latter. ••There’s a potential mini H&S top on the Schultz Gold Share Advance/Decline Line. By press time it should be resolved. Possible H&S in Schultz Gold Index also. Our Spinner index had dramatic falls, but the Timing Lines in most stks had up-hooks, which is typical of bottoms, tho most are deep under the 0-line.  ••Strategy? Most of U took profits & have shrunken portfolios. Me too. U/we can do a bit of bottom fishing. If U sold almost nothing lately, better lay low til we get tech & price support. ••The glass ceiling at 410-412 prevails & probably will for a while, though overshoots & pullbacks are likely for some wks. ••It was very encouraging that gold held at 401 on the sharp selloff on Saddam Monday in far east mkt. Likewise is good that the medium term uptrends from June/July lows are still intact on most golds, so corrective dips are holding within logical bull mkt limits. ••I keep telling U that among the reasons for grabbing profits when U can, is the leverage on declines. U saw this painfully illustrated on Dec 10 when gold bullion fell only 0.46% but SGI fell 5.46%, HUI ­6.03%, & XAU ­4.79%. And that was in just 1-day. In a large gold correction U see that times say 10-20-30 days. U get wiped out (if u don’t use stops). On Dec 10 Golden Star fell 11%, Iamgold -11%, Kinross ­8%, MDG ­5%, NEM ­4.31, Rangy ­8%, WRM ­8%, Afrikander Lease ­40%. These falls occurred after mid-day, so GCRU readers had time to sell at mkt per GCRU recom issued before the opening. Only 1-stk rose on Dec 10 (Inmet). I gave more sell at mkt signals lastime than any issue since GCRU began. If U acted promptly U got out with gains. ••Unusually, there were almost no hot gold stks in last 10 days of. Inmet was the hottest. SoAfricans did well due to the weak rand. Rio Narcea held fairly well. The rest fell uniformly. Even blue chip NEM fell 12% in this period. ••Bullish Consensus: gold 85%, still overbought. US$ 17% still oversold. ••In light of bank/broker letters going out to US clients that insurance companies are pulling out from supporting stock accounts, leaving much reduced protection. U should not keep over $500K in any US account. U should regard this as a warning of the fragility of the banking & brokerage system. It is essential U buy more bullion & gold coins & store them variously. European banks are safer. World’s strongest banks are in Switzerland & HongKong. Details in next HSL. Plez don’t expect direct email answers to questions on this. Will reply in HSL. U know what U must do. ••Here’s another reader letter: "Uncle Harry: Magnifico, mi gran Tio! What an artist U are. U have read our minds & filled our needs. U must have sensed we working people rarely check the wkly & monthly charts. By setting this example, it becomes our standard! We NOW suffer from gold addiction, & U are defining our practice standards. What a legacy U are sharing! I hope U & your team truly understand how we, your virtual community,  feel about U. U have become family! Best wishes from your lifetime students, Larry & Lana Witt." ••No GCRU in Christmas week. Family warmth wishes from the GCRU team & your Uncle Harry for a mentally restful holiday.

 

 

 

PS: Tax selling is underway. Means any weak shares may get much weaker til year end. Your choice: sell quick (even if a loss) or take a chance a stk that is down & goes lower may bounce back after Jan 1.

(U may even benefit from a tax-loss sale, tax-wise)

 

PS #2: Tuesday’s closing prices for golds were mostly very weak. Spinner reversed to downside on some stks. Our advance decline line H&S top seems ready to break down. Outlook not sunny. Hunker down til get all-clear.

 

 

 

 

 

Schultz Gold Index (SGI) – daily chart – line & bar (12/16/03): Bull

cue: gamblers buy a bit on 1-day close over 14.18; more aggressively over 14.86. Bear cue: 1-day close below 12.50. Comment: poss head & shoulder top warns against buying dip action. Mini bull cue on 1-dc over left shoulder high (14.18), confirmed via rise beyond head. Break below H&S (12.50) neckline opens way for sustained negative cycle. Caution!

 

 

 

 

Schultz Gold Share Advance/Decline Line (SGS-A/D) daily chart L/O/C (12/16/03): Bull cue: buy strength only, ie: buy in small on 2-day close over 5204; again over 5240. Bear cue: S/T: hit. New: 1-dc below 5168. Comment: Spinner negative. Break below July uptrend & threat of

head & shoulder top raises odds for deeper consolidation (H&S offers 5090 theoretical target if confirmed via break below 5168 neckline).

 

Gold Charts R Us